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Why the Wallabies can win by Ben Perkins
http://www.sportsaustralia.com/opini...cle.php?id=107
Why Wallabies Can Win
Ben Perkins
Wednesday June 27, 2007
Ben Perkins reports the key differences between the Wallabies and All Blacks and why he thinks the home side can prevail this weekend.
The Wallabies can win this week's Bledisloe Cup match against New Zealand because they have to. In today's current climate, where they are feeling the heat of a demanding and largely unsympathetic public, they know it’s crucial for their existence that they play well and win.
New Zealand, in returning from South Africa, is sure to be not quite at their peak, even though mentally these players would have programmed themselves for two tough games.
The Wallabies know it won’t be a walk in the park against a battered and broken spirited All Black outfit, and will be preparing in the simpatico of a heavyweight contender who gets a lucky chance to take on the Champ with a few things in their own favour.
Such terms can lift the spirits!
The All Blacks carry the expectations of all and sundry saying they are a shoe in to win everything. This to me is a ludicrous pronouncement when you consider the bounce of a ball, a blowing of a whistle when you least expect it, or want it, and an injury to a key player. The mental compartment of this week's game will be all telling.
If the All Blacks believe they can rock up to the MCG and bulldoze the locals they had better have a Pan B.
The Wallabies team tackling is quite extraordinary and, whilst their attack is a try or two short of a great effort, the same can't be said of their ferocious defence.
So to my understanding of how this game will be played;
- It will entirely be centred on how mentally alert and exciting the New Zealander's are feeling.
To beat up the Wallaby defence will take some brilliance. The All Blacks back row can certainly set up opportunities with their stellar desire and go forward. But to actually go through the Wallaby Wall will take some genius play from their playmakers.
Dan Carter’s chip-kicking over the top is an option he will explore. Huxley running towards the bouncing ball with some big name stars to stop is a daunting task for any player to counter. Let alone a player who is so inexperienced. The other wall opener is to somehow make space in the line and put through Joe Rockokoko.
I also expect the All Blacks will try and play two backlines as often as possible with players running left and right to open up space on either side of the breakdown. This tactic will certainly stretch any defence as the desire to repeatedly chase from 40 metres away, if a break is made, is a taxing thing both mentally and physically.
Especially when you might suspect that the other team is the best in the world and nobody expects you to win anyway. Players may scoff at this, but they are human. Over the years I have seen many players not chase as hard as they did earlier in the proceedings.
Having said that, it would be foolish for the All Blacks to consider all that a gimme. They know, as much as anybody knows, that the Wallabies have special qualities and total surrender is not one of them.
Somebody once said Necessity is the mother of invention. The Australian team must soon come up with tactics besides “Rope a Dope defence” to get points on the board.
Stephen Larkham, who is playing in his last year for the team, must dig deep into his bag of tricks. The resilient George Gregan (has there ever been anybody more resiliant?) must keep serving Larkham and sundry with top quality passing.
Gregan’s passing is not quick but he does not throw many shockers. If the back-row can stumble him up it will disjoint, disfigure and destroy any hope of a Wallaby miracle. However, having had years trying to do it why all of a sudden will they catch up with him now? Put simply they won’t.
I say the only possible way New Zealand have of winning this match is to be simply too brilliant for a mean and dour defence that will keep reorganising itself like an entity which has many minds and many moving parts that are all trained to impede and destroy with great prejudice.
As far as the goal kicking goes Carter seldom puts two bad efforts together so I expect him to improve. His back up Luke McCallister is a confident player with a strong leg and plenty of ability. I rate him very highly.
Stirling Mortlock, after a shaky super 14 series where mental injury stopped him playing in continuum, seems to be getting back to his best form.
His back up Matt Giteau also has a strong kicking character and can relied upon to do well for his team. I doubt the game will be won or lost in this department.
Kicking for territory is another matter. New Zealand relies on Carter for this and he is always back there lurking and looking to send it back to half way and beyond. He is back there because it is not a strength of his fellow players.
Leon McDonald is unreliable as he plants his left foot way too strongly on the ground and this technique in this environment when hurried leads it going way to the right in a hurry. Both All Black wingers are ordinary kicks. Mils Muliaina is also nothing special in the torpedo department. He tumbles it down field.
The Wallabies miss the soaring boot of Chris Latham and Huxley's technique needs time to make it work properly. When hurried it is hit and miss for Huxley as he has a two handed drop and does not guide the ball down to his boot with his right hand for anywhere near long enough.
This means the ball gets propelled out of his hands and skews off in any direction. This makes it very hard for his boot to contour the best part of the ball to make it a beauty.
Lote Tuqiri has improved and can be relied upon to get between 30 and 45 metres.
It should be a cracking game, and unless the All Blacks play with spectacular intent I expect the Wallabies to surprise.
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