Here's the scenario: possible Super 14 semi permutations

[Burgs]

As others have indicated elsewhere, even if we come seventh I am still extremely proud of what Mitch and the boys have achieved this year.
If they had been offered seventh at the start of the season they may well have "taken" it.
Enjoy yourselves against the Blues boys, it is unlikely that we can make the Semi's but to have any chance it has to be a high scoring affair (again!!!) and the best way to do that is to have some fun and let the chips fall where they may.
GO THE FORCE!!!

Here's the scenario: possible Super 14 semi permutations

Monday, April 30, 2007

Draw and scenarios for Super 14 semi-finals contenders heading into next weekend's final-round matches.

1. Crusaders (41 points, +153) v Chiefs (home)

Best finish: 1st (win with bonus point, win without bonus point or draw and Sharks don't win)

Worst finish: 5th (lose by 54 or more without bonus point, Sharks win or draw or lose by less than 16 with bonus point and Blues and Bulls both win with bonus points)

2. Sharks (40pts, +115) v Stormers (away)

Best finish: 1st (win, draw or lose with two bonus points and Crusaders don't win)

Worst finish: 6th (lose without bonus point, Blues and Bulls win and Chiefs and Brumbies win with bonus points)

3. Blues (37pts, +93) v Force (away)

Best finish: 1st (win with bonus point, Crusaders lose without bonus point and Sharks lose without two bonus points)

Worst finish: 7th (lose by 42 or more without bonus point, Bulls earn bonus point, Chiefs win, draw or lose with bonus point and Brumbies win, draw or lose with two bonus points)

4. Bulls (37pts, +76) v Reds (home)

Best finish: 1st (win with bonus point, Crusaders and Sharks both lose without bonus points and Blues don't win)

Worst finish: 7th (lose without a bonus point, Chiefs win or draw or lose with bonus point, Brumbies win or draw or lose with two bonus points)

5. Chiefs (36pts, +46) v Crusaders (away)

Best finish: 1st (win by 54 or more, Sharks lose without bonus point and Blues and Bulls both lose)

Worst finish: 7th (lose without bonus point, Brumbies win and Force win with bonus point)

6. Brumbies (35pts, +42) v Highlanders (away)

Best finish: 2nd (win by 32 or more with bonus point, Sharks lose by 32 or more without bonus point and Blues and Chiefs both lose)

Worst finish: 7th (lose without bonus point and Force win)

7. Western Force (32pts, +11) v Blues (home)

Best finish: 3rd (win by 42 or more with bonus point; Bulls lose by 24 or more and Chiefs and Brumbies both lose)

Worst finish: 7th (lose and Bulls, Chiefs and Brumbies all win)

AAP

[The InnFORCEr]

I think it's fantastic that the top 5 can all finish 1st with a week to go and that the Crusdaders are beatable in the dying rounds of the season. Should make the finals worth watching.

Well done to ours boys regardless of what happens this week.

[AndyS]

Maybe accurate enought in practice, but I think the assessment has glossed over results below us or assumed the Waratahs can't lose (taken from SMH?). A good win to the Hurricanes and a loss for us could put us as low as 8th - lower is mathematically possible but about as likely as the Force making the four.

[Thequeerone]

Backed the to finish seventh thought I was mad at the time - really wrapped if they beat that

[GIGS20]

My sums, (and predictions based on who plays who) seems to work out that we're a mathematical possiblity. Chiefs won't win against Saders so there's a given, BUlls will win against the Reds, another Given. Two Spots available in the four for either Us, Brumbies, Blues or Sharks. Sharks are a really good chance against the Stormers and if they win, we don't care about the bonus point, so let's put them in p3. If We don't beat the Blues with a Bonus point and a 41 point advantage, They're it. But if we do beat them by 41 points or more, we leapfrog them. After that, there's only the Brumbies, we need them to lose against the Highlanders or they'll be the ones.

In Short, Brumbies to Lose (bonus point of no consequence) and us to win (by more than 40) and we're home!

or Sharks and Brumbies lose, we win with a bonus point and the margin doesn't matter.

Still a chance in the last round. Not too bad!

A good win to the Hurricanes and a loss for us could put us as low as 8th

That'd have to be some win. the Highlanders are currently at 82% for and against, we are 104%, that's a point differential of about 68 points........that's some win!

[pruc]

lets go boys 50point win

[AndyS]

That'd have to be some win.

Hurricanes, not Highlanders. The Force has 40 points on the Hurricanes, 58 on the Highlanders and 62 on the Stormers. Agreed lower than 8th is perhaps a little unlikely, but the Hurricanes beat the Waratahs by 20 and we lose by the same margin, we're 8th.

On the flip side, we beat the Blues at all and they could conceivably miss out on the four - almost motivation enough as they are far from my favourite team.

[Lonzy]

hehehehe Im so proud of these guys!!! They seriously make me extremely happy!!! I just love the colours of our jerseys and the supporters are fantastic!!! I was going through some photos of the last game, the crowd is great!!! woooohooooooooo ... too much vodka and redbull!!! ... trying to "harden up" for the next tour! lmao!!! love you long time!!!

[travelling_gerry]

[Thequeerone]

Found this on the Investic site author John Welborn - remarkably similar to our own TG (now 4th on ladder of tipping comp ) - it is really possible that we make the finals

Thirteenth Round

Author:
John Welborn
Date Posted:
30 Apr 2007, 0:00 GMT

One round to go in the 2007 Investec Super 14. Looking at the current table (that’s “log” to all you jaapies) and the fixtures next weekend there remains numerous possibilities for the makeup of the final four.

If:
Crusaders beat the Chiefs
Sharks beat the Stormers
Western Force beat the Blues
Bulls beat the Reds
Highlanders beat the Brumbies

Then table would look:

Crusaders 45
Sharks 45
Bulls 42
Force 37
Blues 37
Brumbies 36
Chiefs 36

Seems to me that to make the finals the Force need the results above and need to beat the Blues by about 41 points to get ahead on points differential. Tough ask!

[shasta]

On the flip side, we beat the Blues at all and they could conceivably miss out on the four - almost motivation enough as they are far from my favourite team.

Of course we'd all like to see the boys stuff them, no matter what. If we can't make it the Brumbies need us to win so they can. Should the Blues miss we could see two ZA teams and one from Oz (I think ). Far preferable to 3 from NZ, for mine.

We have an Aucklander who I see occasionally at work. I told him about 4 weeks back that I thought the Blues were a chance to fall in a hole and lose the last four. That's the way I tipped too. He thought I was crazy. One to go.

Funny but i saw him Sunday night and he seems to have somehow become a Force supporter

[aston aka martin]

nice work gerry, just like my predictions. Let's have some faith in the boys to absolutely thump the Blues.

[travelling_gerry]

this may..or may not be my tips for this week....dont want to give toooooo much away for the final double points round...

[joblot]

Pre - Season I predicted a 4th. place finish. I know now that it is not going to happen , but what about those 1 point losses and the highly dubious loss against the Brumbies. Add all that together and we are certainly a FORCE , a great FORCE in Australian rugby. I am extremely proud of the boys and more so of John Mitchell's total dedication to this team. Please offer him a twenty year contract.