Super Rugby Pacific Finals permutations

[Burgs]

Sun, May 26, 2024, 1:01 PM
Nathan Williamson

With the penultimate round of Super Rugby Pacific in the books, there is still plenty of unknown around the make-up of the finals heading into next week.

What we do know is the Queensland Reds will travel to Hamilton to face the Chiefs after Clayton McMillian’s side went down to the Hurricanes in the final minutes on Friday.

Outside of that? It’s anyone’s guess after a wild round of action.

The Crusaders’ 29-26 win over the Blues has had major ramifications at the top and bottom of the ladder as the defending champions kept their defence alive.

It pushed them into tenth position, tied on points with the Western Force, who were thumped by the Reds, but behind on the tiebreaker (most wins).

Rob Penney’s side will face Moana Pasifika to open the round, who kept their own finals dream alive with a victory over the NSW Waratahs to hand them last position.

The Force will know their finals fate by the time they take the field on Saturday against the Brumbies in Perth. All three chasing sides will be hoping the Rebels can defeat the Drua to open the door for them to strike.

Meanwhile, Stephen Larkham’s side were one of the biggest winners out of the weekend as they gained ground on both the Blues and Hurricanes.

They produced a clinical performance to claim maximum points against the Melbourne Rebels, with the Rebels locked into their maiden finals after the Force's defeat.

The Auckland-based side holds onto top spot on points difference but faces the Chiefs in a potential semi-final preview.

A second consecutive defeat could see them suddenly drop to third, with the Brumbies needing a Hurricanes loss on top of this to secure an unlikely minor premiership.

The Hurricanes just need a win over the Highlanders and a Blues defeat to ensure the finals go through Wellington and claim the minor premiership.

Round 15 Fixtures
*All times AEST

Friday, May 31: Crusaders v Moana Pasifika, Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch (5:05 pm)

Friday, May 31: NSW Waratahs v Queensland Reds, Allianz Stadium, Sydney (7:35 pm)

Saturday, June 1: Fijian Drua v Melbourne Rebels, Churchill Park, Lautoka (12:05 pm)

Saturday, June 1: Hurricanes v Highlanders, Sky Stadium, Wellington (2:35 pm)

Saturday, June 1: Blues v Chiefs, Eden Park, Auckland (5:05 pm)

Saturday, June 1: Western Force v ACT Brumbies, HBF Park, Perth (7:35 pm) (5:35pm WST)

Each team’s best and worst case finish

1st - Blues
Current: 51 points, +241 points difference with 11 wins

Best: First (Win v Chiefs)

Worst: Third (Loss v Chiefs and Hurricanes/Brumbies wins)

2nd - Hurricanes
Current: 51 points, +172 points difference with 11 wins

Best: First (Win v Highlanders and Blues loss)

Worst: Third (Loss v Highlanders and Brumbies win)

3rd - ACT Brumbies
Current: 48 points, +94 points difference with 11 wins

Best: First (Win v Force and Blues/Hurricanes defeat)

Worst: Third (Brumbies, Blues and Hurricanes Win or Brumbies defeat)

4th - Chiefs
Current: 43 points, +189 points difference with nine wins

Best/Worst: Fourth

5th - Queensland Reds
Current: 36 points, +103 points difference with seven wins

Best/Worst: Fifth

6th - Highlanders
Current: 28 points, -70 points difference with six wins

Best: Sixth (Win v Hurricanes or Rebels loss v Drua)

Worst: Seventh (Loss v Hurricanes, Rebels win v Drua)

7th - Melbourne Rebels
Current: 26 points, -126 points difference with five wins

Best: Sixth (Win v Drua, Highlanders loss v Hurricanes)

Worst: Eighth (Loss v Drua with Drua getting bonus point)

8th - Fijian Drua
Current: 21 points, -123 points difference with five wins

Best: Seventh (Win v Rebels with bonus point)

Worst: 10th (Loss v Rebels and Force/Crusaders wins)

9th - Western Force
Current: 19 points, -127 point difference with four wins

Best: Eighth (Win v Force, Drua loss v Rebels and Crusaders win w/out bonus point or loss)

Worst: 11th (Loss v Brumbies, Moana win v Crusaders, who get losing BP)

10th - Crusaders
Current: 19 points, -39 points difference with three wins

Best: Eighth (Win v Moana and Force/Drua defeat)

Worst: 11th (Loss v Moana)

11th - Moana Pasifika
Current: 18 points, -187 points difference with four wins.

Best: Eighth (Win v Crusaders and Force/Drua defeat)

Worst: 11th (Loss v Crusaders)

12th - NSW Waratahs
Current: 12 points, -127 points difference with two wins

Best/Worst: 12th

[Kernow]

By the final whistle of the Fiji game it could well be “all over red rover” the chance of finals is the same as last year, in the hands of other clubs. Here’s to 25 and landing safely in the top 8 well before round 15.

[Burgs]

By the final whistle of the Fiji game it could well be “all over red rover” the chance of finals is the same as last year, in the hands of other clubs.

Pretty much impossible in this digital age I suppose, but wonder if you would put the team in a cone of silence on the morning leading into the match...

[GIGS20]

Pretty much impossible in this digital age I suppose, but wonder if you would put the team in a cone of silence on the morning leading into the match...

Actually really easy.

They will be at HQ for pregame well before the Drua game, take their phones off them and don't show anything on any screen.

[Burgs]

Actually really easy.

They will be at HQ for pregame well before the Drua game, take their phones off them and don't show anything on any screen.

Appreciate you said take phones off them, but for the anecdote-
I have a Kiwi mate (has since become a permanent resident here) who I usually engage with on Fbk, except for on Bledisloe nights...
As I would usually have been working I would watch the match on delay, this lead to a total self imposed blanket on socials including on here and avoiding the Mess and Wet Mess until after.
Unfortunately, it would only take a quick habitual glance at an incoming text notification (could have been employee related), see it was from him, and the result was blown... didn't even need to read the message, he would text as soon as the result was determined (ie often well before full time).
I assumed it was deliberate, but when I mentioned it one day he was mortified he was wrecking the match for me and thereafter waited to respond to my text.

[GIGS20]

And to further the story, Nic White came out yesterday and said they won't be doing a social media blackout.

Something that sounded really wise about "if you say you're blocking it out you're still thinking about it and that just wastes effort"

He said they're going to check it and make sure it doesn't impact their prep. I guess we'll see how that works out, won't we.

[Burgs]

I see that as realising it wouldn't be effective and putting some words around that reality.
Probably worse to have a "black-out" and then 5 minutes before KO a Stan interview letting slip it was a dead rubber.
End of the day, many of these SRP matches are determined in the top three inches, so will be interesting either way.
White was all about how regardless they are playing for a performance t be proud of and for the Sea of Blue etc etc.
First 10 minutes will show if there was buy in on that.

[GIGS20]

I see that as realising it wouldn't be effective and putting some words around that reality.
Probably worse to have a "black-out" and then 5 minutes before KO a Stan interview letting slip it was a dead rubber.
End of the day, many of these SRP matches are determined in the top three inches, so will be interesting either way.
White was all about how regardless they are playing for a performance t be proud of and for the Sea of Blue etc etc.
First 10 minutes will show if there was buy in on that.

Yeah I think those exact three inches you are talking about has been the litmus test in 2024. so many games we should have won let down by a poor mental performance and we looked like we didn't know each other's names, conversely, you could say that more than one of our wins were against the odds and we turned up looking like a different outfit.