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Thread: Trans-Tasman speculation

  1. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alison View Post
    So, about half of what RA have enjoyed over the past 5 years. That might keep the Wallabies going but it isn’t enough to fund the Tahs, Reds, Rebels and Brumbies as well.
    It is a tad over half of the current $57M per year but bear in mind that figure includes overseas deals (for example, the UK was worth around $10M+ from memory). So the Australian component would be roughly similar with Foxtel but down around 20-25% with Nine. The overseas component might be down a similar amount. As shasta said, to be expected in the circumstances.

    Will obviously down more without South African involvement in the Rugby Championship, though.

    Nine offers $30 million for rugby union broadcast rights

    By Zoe Samios
    October 18, 2020 — 7.34pm

    Super Rugby union matches could be on free-to-air television live for the first time next year after Nine Entertainment Co lodged a $30 million bid for the broadcast rights aimed at wresting the game away from pay-TV group Foxtel.

    Industry sources familiar with Rugby Australia's discussions with media companies who requested anonymity said Nine had offered to pay about $30 million a year in cash and free advertising. The television, publishing and digital company decided late last week to offer more cash than free advertising to sweeten the deal. Nine declined to comment. RA declined to comment.

    Rugby Australia has struggled to grow the game due to a lack of exposure and poor recent performances by the Wallabies. It wants more matches on a free-to-air television network to build the sport's audience. All Super Rugby games are broadcast on Foxtel and subscription streaming service Kayo, making it difficult for the governing body to reach all potential fans.

    Under the deal Nine (owner of this masthead) would broadcast Wallabies Tests, the Rugby Championship and one game a week of Super Rugby on its television network. All other matches would sit behind a paywall on Nine's subscription streaming service Stan. Industry sources said Rugby Australia is likely to make a decision on the broadcast deal at a Board meeting this week.

    Former RA boss Raelene Castle was eager to get more free-to-air coverage for the sport to grow the sport's audience. Nine's offer is smaller than the bid incumbent broadcaster Foxtel made nearly two weeks ago. Industry sources familiar with the talks previously said Foxtel had offered between $35-$40 million for the matches despite previous claims the pay TV operator did not believe the sport was worth that much. However, some Foxtel sources indicated they offered less than $35 million. Foxtel pays between $30 million to $40 million a year for the rights but was hoping to renegotiate price in the same way it landed new deals with the AFL and NRL.

    Foxtel has broadcast rugby games in Australia for two decades. The broadcaster, which runs Fox Sports, offered to sign a new five-year deal late last year but discussions fell apart earlier this year over the pricing. Foxtel has also reduced its rugby commentary budget in recent years and no longer has a mid-week show.

    When talks first fell apart between RA and Foxtel earlier this year, Ms Castle approached Nine about a bid. A successful bid by Nine would also change the positioning of streaming service Stan, which currently runs international and local drama and film. Stan currently has 2 million subscribers, a large audience base for rugby union to try and attract. Kayo had 600,000 subscribers in September.

    Any deal with Nine would be short-term but if the involvement of Stan proves a success, it could open up the potential for other sports rights negotiations to include the streaming service in future. Such a move would put pressure on Foxtel which is heavily dependent on sport for subscribers.

    Nine is the second free-to-air broadcaster to make an offer for the rights. Network Ten bid broadcast the Wallabies Tests last month but offered less than the $3.5 million a year it currently pays. Ten does not want to pay large amounts for the rights because of declining audiences. In 2015, the average audience for international Tests on Network Ten was about 345,000. In 2019 the audience figure was 194,000 and a lack of audience often results in less appeal for advertisers.

    Network Ten's chief sales officer Rod Prosser said last week low-rating sport was of no benefit to the broadcaster. "Sport obviously attract advertisers, and particularly blue chip advertisers in droves. What our clients are mostly in now is the audience [a sport] delivers. Having a low rating sport, just for the sake of sport, is of no benefit to me."

    One caveat on the value of the rights will be whether South Africa continues to participate in the Rugby Championship next year. South Africa confirmed last week it would not play in this year's tournament but rugby sources have indicated it is considering playing in a Northern Hemisphere competition next year. The Rugby Championship is a highly lucrative competition for the governing body and the absence of South Africa will reduce its value. Interim RA boss Rob Clarke said late last week he was confident that the Springboks would not exit the Rugby Championship for good from next year.

    Foxtel, Ten and BSkyB are at the end of a $285m five-year deal with RA signed in 2015. Securing a new deal is crucial for the financial security of the code (a large amount of RA's revenue comes from broadcasters).

    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/rugby-u...18-p56654.html

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  2. #227
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    Almost by inspection, you'd have to call BS on a lot of that speculation about numbers. The $285M over 5 years is a hard number, and it was widely and reliably reported as being a 148% increase on the previous contract. That means the previous deal was c.a. $24M/yr at best, so the Foxtel numbers are obvious crap. They have historically paid $20M a year at best, and a chunk of that was contra. The extra was what they got from sharing the deals of the other partners, and that money then paid for all five teams.

    So if they were actually getting $30M/yr from Nine, that would be entirely in the ballpark. Mind you, "decided late last week to offer more cash than free advertising" suggests not much of it may be folding money.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyS View Post
    The $285M over 5 years is a hard number, and it was widely and reliably reported as being a 148% increase on the previous contract.
    Yes, that's the $57M per year.

    That means the previous deal was c.a. $24M/yr at best,
    The amount from 10 years ago, yes.

    so the Foxtel numbers are obvious crap. They have historically paid $20M a year at best
    No, they paid more than that over the last 5 years (in cash plus contra).

    So if they were actually getting $30M/yr from Nine, that would be entirely in the ballpark. Mind you, "decided late last week to offer more cash than free advertising" suggests not much of it may be folding money.
    Rough pallpark, maybe. Still some drop because it rolls in FTA. However a better presence on FTA, even in these digital times, is worth considering. Being locked up on Foxtel was not good for Super Rugby.

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    One thing to remember with Rupert Murdoch's deals is they were priced in USD. He's a septic tank so you have check reporting with care.

    That means having to run a hedge against currency fluctuations. It also means that a 20 buck figure can become 30 when using the little aussie battler.

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    $57M/yr only started 5 years ago, not ten. And that was 2.5x bigger than the previous contract, mostly due to money from Europe. So in 2015, they were getting c.a. $25M/yr total, including all the extra money SA supposedly contributed to the deal. So by inspection...

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    Last edited by AndyS; 19-10-20 at 11:43.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyS View Post
    $57M/yr only started 5 years ago, not ten.
    That's self evident.

    Quote Originally Posted by AndyS View Post
    And that was 2.5x bigger than the previous contract, mostly due to money from Europe.
    There was a big uplift from Europe. Really from the UK due to the BT vs BSkyB sports rights turf war. The other two markets in Europe are small beer.

    Let me give a 5-year number from BSkyB: £120m. That translates for Billy Pulver to roughly 10-14m AUD per year.

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    'You can't just bank your dollars': What Rugby Australia is weighing up in broadcast talks

    By Zoe Samios
    October 20, 2020 — 12.01am
    Sydney Morning Herald

    Sports rights analysts say Rugby Australia must focus on growing its fan base as it makes a crucial decision on a future broadcast partner for the code.

    The RA board is weighing up whether to accept a lower price for its broadcast rights but with a chance for greater mainstream exposure on free-to-air television after Nine Entertainment Co made a $30 million a season offer on Friday. RA also received a proposal from longtime broadcast partner Foxtel that industry sources said could be worth as much as $40 million a year.

    Luke Bould, former chief commercial officer at Football Federal Australia and director at consultancy Alacria Global, said RA should be focused on which deal can grow the sport's fan base.

    "Rugby's got two problems. It's clearly got a revenue problem but it's also got an audience problem," Bould said. "This is the first time in a long time that they've accepted the [price of] rights isn't going to go up. There is a legitimate value proposition discussion around the increase in reach of free-to-air versus the guaranteed cheque you get from Foxtel and News."

    Industry sources familiar with the discussions previously said Nine, owners of this masthead, is offering $30 million in cash and free advertising to broadcast one Super Rugby match a week on free-to-air television as well as Wallabies Tests and the Rugby Championship. All other Super Rugby games would be broadcast live behind a paywall on subscription streaming service Stan.

    Foxtel also bid for Super Rugby, Wallabies Tests and the Rugby Championship. Industry sources familiar with the talks said Foxtel had offered between $35 million-$40 million but some Foxtel sources have since indicated they offered less than $35 million.


    Former Rugby Australia boss Raelene Castle, who was eager to get more free-to-air coverage for the sport to grow its audience, said in January that any deal was not just about price.

    "The number is obviously crucial and that’s how all sports survive in the professional era," Castle said at the time. "The second thing is access, so how can we expose Super Rugby more readily to more people more often. Thirdly ... the commercial support across the whole sport that the broadcasters are prepared to engage in."

    RA has struggled to grow the game due to a lack of exposure and poor recent performances by the Wallabies. All Super Rugby games are broadcast on Foxtel and subscription streaming service Kayo, making it difficult for the governing body to reach new fans.

    Global Media and Sports boss Colin Smith said rugby union risks eroding its audiences if it cannot get more people attending matches through a new broadcast deal.

    'The only problem with more of the same [is it's] going to continue the downward trajectory.'

    "The only problem with more of the same [is it's] going to continue the downward trajectory," Smith said. "Back in 2004, the average audience for Super Rugby was probably six or seven times greater than it is today. You can't just bank your dollars because if you bank your dollars and don't make major changes, then it could continue to erode. Rugby has to recreate itself and build a long-term position."

    Bould said one concern for the RA Board to change partners could be the ramifications of walking away from Foxtel. Foxtel's major shareholder, News Corp Australia, owns mastheads such as The Australian, The Daily Telegraph and The Herald Sun. Bould said sports have historically been reluctant to walk from Foxtel because it risks walking away from coverage that appears in the mastheads.

    "There's a very powerful channel to market that News Corp offers," he said. However, he argued reach would also help RA increase its revenue in the long term.

    "Having the content in front of as many people as possible is going to become even more important," he said. "They're going to need to maximise sponsorship dollars and they're going to need to maximise what the fans are paying whether that be for memberships or whether they buy shirts."

    But any deal won't just have implications for rugby union. The potential introduction of Nine's sports streaming service Stan to live sports broadcasting could have long-term implications for future rights negotiations. Traditionally, Foxtel was the only major pay-TV operator that could offer a subscription-focused model for sport. Optus has since entered the sports broadcasting space and the inclusion of Stan would increase competition.

    "It adds more competitive tension because, all of a sudden, it's saying that subscription doesn't doesn't necessarily have to be driven by the telcos or by Foxtel," Smith said. "It's a really material change for Stan and frankly for Nine that, all of a sudden, changes the competitive dynamics of Australian sport and frankly international sport."

    Media analyst Brian Han said any content that can differentiate Stan, subject to the amount paid for it, would increase its value. "A niche sports content such as rugby would fit that bill, not to mention the cross-promotional benefits and AB-demo exposure Stan would get, if key matches are also broadcast on Nine free-to-air," he said.

    "As for what it means for future sports rights negotiations, it’s unlikely any free-to-air network would ever consider paying for any sports rights if the digital/streaming rights are not included."

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    I wonder who RA will want to show on FTA as Match of the Day?

    Ravi what are the odds?

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    Given the two biggest markets are Sydney and Brisbane they'd be the no brainers.

    You'd hope a fair cross section of teams would get a run in FTA but you'd assume the broadcasters will have a say in what games get fixtures in a Saturday night if the 9 bid is the winner.

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    Looking at Channel 9's history with MungoBall.

    Wasn't there a time where the Canberra Raiders went 18 months without being on FTA TV?

    Shasta?

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    with all of the talk about Tahs and Reds getting the pick of game of the week, I'm still keen to see the rights go to 9

    Kayo = $25 Mo
    Stan = $10 Mo

    No brainer for me

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    Quote Originally Posted by jargan83 View Post
    Given the two biggest markets are Sydney and Brisbane they'd be the no brainers.

    You'd hope a fair cross section of teams would get a run in FTA but you'd assume the broadcasters will have a say in what games get fixtures in a Saturday night if the 9 bid is the winner.
    Well hopefully when Twiggy/Sampson/Hodgo have built the Force into the strongest rugby club in Australia and even NZ, the WA market will be much bigger. And with the Force playing great winning and attractive rugby, then rugby fans and sponsors right across Australia will demand that CH 9 show the Force games.

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    I'd be happy for our away games to be shown on FTA every second week, irrespective of the opposition

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    Quote Originally Posted by .X. View Post
    Looking at Channel 9's history with MungoBall.

    Wasn't there a time where the Canberra Raiders went 18 months without being on FTA TV?

    Shasta?
    Pass......except to say that there were/are more than one team missing out over the years. But it's probably not a great comparison given the number of franchises in each (?).

    GIGS; given that you will surely pay a premium for Stan if you want Rugby, your no brainer might not be so attractive. If you pay that you will get all matches so FTA match allocation is irrelevant. That article says the offer from both operators is "per season/year. I thought the 9 offer is only 1 year. That's a major consideration for RA to walk away from Newscorp.

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    I didn't pick up on that, although I would have thought any deal would by nature been for one year only unless they have already settled the structure of rugby for 2022+. The only thing tougher than renegotiating a deal that rugby didn't deliver it's end on due to outside forces, would be trying to convince the broadcaster that they should pay more than agreed because the various Unions overdelivered on content.

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