Force v Reds

[andrewg]

How good it is to get a win and roll the reds at home AGAIN.
Would much rather be the Force squad and Foley last night and today rather than the Reds squad and Graham.

I'm sure that we're all as frustrated as the players and coaches with having all of the possession and territory for the first Qtr of the game and not being able to turn this into points. Almost unbearable to watch. Especially as it continued until about the 60 minute mark.
This was the period when good play and momentum was repeatedly killed by handling errors.

I'm not going to focus on the aspects that almost caused me to stop watching or throwing the wine glass at the TV as there were so many improvements over the previous week's effort:
+ Handling Errors reduced to 15 (about the same as the best Aussie teams from the week before) compared to 28.
+ Won 99% of our Rucks compared to 87% the previous week.
+ 14 Turn Overs Won compared to the Reds 3 TOW. (Hodgo 3, Stander 2 and 1 to each of Cottrell, Cowan and Mafi and 6 TOW by the Backs). The Waratahs had 12 TOW against the Reds 8 TOW the previous week. It's going to be more hard yards for the Reds without Gill and Thomson.
+ Tackling Efficiency at only 83% instead of > 90%. Missing 1 out of every 5 just makes things too hard!
+ Lineouts at only 75% but up against the best performing Lock in Australia (Simmons. No matter what some think of him) and Neville is good.
Some won't like to admit it, but we miss Sam Wykes in the Line Out and around the park. (Not enough involvement from Mafi). Steinkamp never made an impact around the park.
+ Scrum struggled but still managed to win 85% of own scrums and managed to recover from a dominant start by the experienced Reds crew. It would have been easy for Gardner to really turn against us - but he didn't.
+ We should be proud of the way that Hodgo managed Gardner.
+ Great 1st run-on game from Mesirewa. Lance played an excellent strategic game. DHP did well again - despite his dropped high ball.
+ This was the type of game that previously, when the Reds fought back to within 6 points, the Force would have turned negative and we would have lost in the last 5-10 minutes. (AAAAaaaahhhhh!!) Instead they stepped up a cog with great defence and put on another 10 points.
+ Tapuai is growing in his impact with this playing squad.
+ Thought RHP put in a better showing this week and seemed to be playing with more confidence.
+ I understand that no injuries out of this game
+ Glad they rested Grant as we'll need him next week against the Brumbies.
+ How good was Ian Prior's conversion from the side line? I think his first kick on goal for the Force.

Work in progress but learning how to turn territory and possession dominance into points and maintaining pressure will be a sure sign of improvement over last year.

[andrewg]

Ruck Involvement Stats from the Reds v WF game.

Remember:
1. Early means 1st or 2nd of player’s team AFTER the ball carrier has been tackled and brought to ground.
2. Impact means active engagement: strong physical contact, changed shape of ruck, clean-out, protecting ball etc. (more than hand on someone’s bum or arriving after the hard work has been done). Yes it’s subjective - but as I collect all data at least it’s consistent.
3. Impact DOES NOT equate to Effectiveness. I’ve concluded that coming up with an effectiveness measure is just too hard in the time that I have available – but open to suggestions.





Comments:

+ Involvement steadily increased from Qtr-to-Qtr and half-to-half as the Reds tried to up the anti.
+ Same key contributors as last week.
+ Fantastic effort from Cowan knowing that he was about to be replaced.
+ Good contributions from off the bench.
+ Rasolea a good defender with best ruck involvements by a Back (3TOW).

[James]

I think it is/was always going to take some time for the Force to execute the new game plan effectively. It is a shame that we didn't have another trial to bed it in so that last week could have been a win.

I know the Reds and the Rebels aren't exactly the strongest of opponents but we could also have played a lot better against both teams. I have seen enough to think that progress should be judged on how we are performing toward the end of the season.

[Sheikh]

Those stats for Mafi look pretty poor. Over two games he's been pulled for RHP twice, both times around 55 minutes. RHP has hit as many rucks as Mafi in less than half the pitch time.

So I wondered if that meant Mafi was standing off the rucks, ready to make runs or tackles. The first game Mafi did run 9 times (beaten only by Cottrell), but he made only 2 tackles (RHP made 5). This week Mafi made only 5 runs and 3 tackles. He doesn't seem to be as involved in the game as Coleman. Has he picked up a minor injury? Enough to slow him down, but not enough to keep him out of the line-up?

[andrewg]

So I wondered if that meant Mafi was standing off the rucks, ready to make runs or tackles. The first game Mafi did run 9 times (beaten only by Cottrell), but he made only 2 tackles (RHP made 5). This week Mafi made only 5 runs and 3 tackles. He doesn't seem to be as involved in the game as Coleman. Has he picked up a minor injury? Enough to slow him down, but not enough to keep him out of the line-up?

Good points.
From observations only I reckon it's fitness and lack of desire to be involved.
We all remember and love his occasional memorable runs but memorable defensive efforts are few and far between.
Hence my comments about Sam Wykes.

[shasta]

So I wondered if that meant Mafi was standing off the rucks, ready to make runs or tackles. The first game Mafi did run 9 times (beaten only by Cottrell),

....and he had some good carries again yesterday. He tends to pull defenders back to the middle of the park. They need to work on turning that into tries.

[whodunnit]

....and he had some good carries again yesterday. He tends to pull defenders back to the middle of the park. They need to work on turning that into tries.

A very low standard game!
Two poor coaches that control their respective environments that produces rubbish!
Fox sports would be cringing at every time these teams have to be shown on pay tv.

[Sheikh]

....and he had some good carries again yesterday. He tends to pull defenders back to the middle of the park. They need to work on turning that into tries.

Was just discussing Mafi with my Dad on Skype. He remembers Mafi's devastating running with Leicester, so I hope he can bring some of that to us. Might need quick ball and a defence on the back foot to bring the best out of him.

[BeeJay]

The major difference this week was better decision making around what options to take. The judgment around when to kick, pass, offload, take the tackle and recycle, stand back or join the ruck, all better than last week.

I, for one, want Dickie Graham to stay at the Reds for as looong as possible...

[Nipper]

Not great, but a better performance - a step in the right direction, and exactly the game they needed to get things rolling.

They seemed to get the balance right - going forward before going wide. Less chucking the ball around for the hell of it. Turnovers were much better, but their ballhandling is still crap. Last year it was awful too - how is this basic skill not addressed? You can do all the components of the game well, string together positive phases, and then drop the ball to end it all. That's the most maddening part for me.

Thank the Lord for Jono Lance. What a difference a quality 10 makes - taking the correct options most of the time. Let's face it - last year, we were playing the way the Reds were - no direction by a playmaker.

Hopefully, the set piece will get shored up, and Faulkner will be back soon.

All good building blocks, and there's hope. Wish the Brumbies game came a couple of weeks later...

[Reds81]

The die hards delude themselves. The Force were as bad as ever in a shocking advertisement for rugby. Stop focusing on Graham at the Reds, Foley here is our nemesis; he needs to go.

Am interested in a response from AndrewG, and his ruck analysis ie involvement. What does that mean in the the big scheme of things. No knocking your effort, but think about it!

[andrewg]

Am interested in a response from AndrewG, and his ruck analysis ie involvement. What does that mean in the the big scheme of things. No knocking your effort, but think about it!

Suggest read this data in conjunction with other stats when assessing who was the best player - particularly in defence. So often I hear discussions about particular players e.g. Pocock v Hooper v Gill v Hodgson without any reference to ruck involvements, turn over effectiveness etc.. Even the FoxSports Fantasy Rugby ratings do not recognise ruck effort or results.

Over this weekend Pocock had a total of 40 ruck involvements, including 16 defensive rucks, for 1 Turn Over Won. Hooper had a total of 31 ruck involvements, including 9 defensive rucks, without a single TOW. Hodgson had 36 total rucks, inc. 13 defensive rucks, and earned 3 TOW.
I suggest that Hodgson's 1 TOW for about every 4 def, ruck involvements was a very good effort.
However, Rasolea's 3 TOW from 8 def rucks was even better.

Already in this discussion you can see how surprised some people are about Mafi's lack of involvement.

There is a lot of data and analysis about Line Outs (20-35/match)and Scrums (10-20/match) but there are usually 100-200 rucks in any game about which little is known or info available. For the past 18 months I've been trying to address this shortage of information.

I posted these stats as they cover the Western Force forwards.
Still collecting the data for the Reds (who are missing the efforts of Gill and Thomson at the breakdown).

However, if you get nothing from the data then I suggest simply move on. I readily accept that not everybody is interested in looking at or analysing stats.

But it you'd like to see more then check out:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/rwc...-v-all-blacks/

and

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/rwc...s-v-wallabies/

If you search my ForceFan handle on G&GR you'll find past articles including many on the Reds' ruck efforts.

On this site suggest check out the Force v Rebels thread which includes a data comparison for the Aussie SR sides in Round 1.

[Macattack]

I enjoy reading your stats summary Andrew, much appreciated.

[shasta]

[GIGS20]

Don't tell me, let me guess

"look, we learned a lot from that game, we were in it right to the end and we put together some good passages of play. It's unfortunate that we couldn't win it, but we're still struggling with some key injuries and an inexperienced playmaker." "no I'm not worried about losing my job, I'm here to make the team perform as well as it can" "what went wrong? Look, I honestly don't know mate, well have to have a look at the video, because it was so close that those 1%ers can be hard to call sometimes"