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The South African Conference in 2011
The 2011 season was a mixed bag for the South Africans. Their failure to make an impact in the finals, with both the Sharks and the Stormers hopelessly outclassed by the Crusaders, is a definite negative. On the upside however, the Bulls were one spot out of the finals, the Cheetahs performed well and the Lions make great strides along the road to recovery. Despite their poor finals appearance, the Stormers were the team to beat for much of the tournament and seemed like the most dangerous team in the competition.
The post world cup player movement seems to have evened the South African franchise up a fair bit and it will be really interesting to see who comes out swinging. It’s hard to look past the Stormers and the Sharks but the Lions impressed during the Currie Cup and we shouldn’t underestimate the power of the Cheetah’s pack.
Ins:
As they have lost a whole host of players, so the Bulls have made a fair few signings for 2012. The Bull’s brains trust has opted against trying to pursue big names to replace the likes of Matfield and du Preez. Instead they have mostly gone for young talent and a bit of a rebuild with the likes of Lionel Cronje, Johann Sadie and JJ Engelbrecht. In their early 20s, these guys could well be future Springboks and the driving force behind a change in the way the Bulls play rugby. Another signing bound to help this change will be that of livewire scrum-half Jano Vermaak from the Lions. The Bulls have also added to their pack with former Lion Willie Wepener and former Bull, and now also former Cheetah, Wilhelm Steenkamp.
The Stormers have made only one major addition to their pack with the signing of Deon Carstens. The former Shark and Springbok loosehead brings over ten years of senior rugby experience to the Stormers and is battle hardened from a year spent with Saracens in the Aviva Premiership. The Stormers have also angled to make up from some of their backline departures by signing outside back trio Joe Pietersen, JP du Plessis and Gerhard van den Heever. JP’s signing is an interesting once since he hardly impressed for the Melbourne Rebels last season. Joe Pietersen’s return, on the other hand, is great news for Stormers fans as Pietersen is a try-scoring ace and will help to improve the Stormers comparative weakness in this area in 2011.
The Sharks have picked up Marius Joubert for the 2012 season. The former Springbok centre is 33 this year and will probably be making his final tilt at senior rugby. He brings some good leadership qualities to the Sharks’ backline. Other additions to the Sharks’ backs are centre Tim Whitehead, from the Stormers, and winger Riaan Viljoen, from the Cheetahs.
The Lions have added to their squad from 2011 with some good acquisitions. The main signing is that of CJ van der Linde, who will bring a fair bit of experience and talent to the Lion’s front row. The JoBugers have also formed a bit Sydney connection with former Waratah foreign development player Hendrik ‘Dud’ Roodt and NSW Junior Eddie Bredenhann. It’ll be interesting to see how Bredenhann develops, but methinks that Roodt will once again live up to his nickname.
The Cheetahs have not made any particularly big name signings for 2012.
Outs:
The Bulls have won a close tussle with the Brumbies for most experience lost from 2011. Guthro Steenkamp, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield, Danie Rossouw and Fourie du Preez have played their last games in blue at Loftus Versfeld. That is the backbone of the Springbok squad for the past seven or eight years. Hooker Gary Botha also returns to Europe while former 7s star Jaco Pretorius has retired and promising winger Gerhard van den Heever has moved on to the Stormers.
The Stormers are next in line in the departures stakes with a tidy group of players leaving the cape. A handful of promising stars including Johann Sadie have moved to other South African franchises- mainly the Bulls. CJ van der Linde has also made an internal move to the Lions. In addition, Adriaan Fondse, Anton van Zyl, Ricky Januarie Conrad Jantjes, and Pieter and Francois Louw have all moved up north. While not superstars, they are a group that most other Super Rugby franchises would be very happy to have on their books. The big name departure from Capetown, however, is that of Jaque Fourie. Arguably the best outside centre in the world, Fourie has earned some serious Yen (and a fit bit of vitriol) in his move to Japanese rugby.
The most notable leaver from Durban is long time Bok captain John Smit. He has finally moved to the Saracens (the 6th South African franchise, if you don’t count the Spears or the Kings or whatever) having come to terms with the fact that he has been completely eclipsed by Bismarck du Plessis. Lock duo Steven Sykes and Gerhard Mostert have also left the coastal franchise. The itchy-footed Adrian Jacobs appeared to be leaving the Sharks for the Stormers however there is a bit of uncertainty over exactly where he will end up. It appears that utility back Stefan Terblanche has also finally retired.
The Lions have lost a handful of halves ahead of 2012- literally in the case of Rory Kockott. Also leaving is fiery halfback Jano Vermaak, crocked fly half Andre Pretorius and journeyman Burton Francis. While it would have been handy to hold on to one of the 9s, the presence of Elton Jantjies and Butch James in the squad render the two departing fly halves as obsolete.
The Cheetahs also have little turnover of players for the coming season. The big disappointment for Free Staters will be the loss of Sarel Pretorius. The try scoring ace has been the team’s most influential player for the past two seasons. Second rower Wilhelm Steenkamp returns to the Bulls to fill the gap left by Rossouw, Matfield and Botha. Interestingly, fly half Louis Strydom has moved to the Southern Kings in what could be a pre-emptive move for the possible inclusion of the Southern Kings in Super Rugby in 2013.
What I rate about...
... the Bulls is the potential for a re-invention. Over the last two years they have lost a little something. Their scrum is no longer the weapon it was. Their line-out will be a shadow of its former self without Matfield. No more tactical nous from Fourie du Preez. The leadership group has moved on. So what will the new Bulls bring? I’d like to see a bit of the uncompromising physicality of the Sharks- a forward pack full of Bakkies Bothas- with a touch of the passion of the Cheetahs. It’ll be exciting to see what comes out of Pretoria in 2012 and which new gems will be unearthed.
... the Sharks is the talented laden squad. It will be a big surprise if these guys fail to make the finals. But what you have to like most about the Sharks is that they have a style. The way their forwards work together and their ferocity at the breakdown is a marvel to behold. With backs like Patrick Lambie, Freddie Michalak, Lwazi Mvovo and Meyer Bosman they are also likely to dazzle in the backs too.
... the Lions is that they have embarked on their slow road back to greatness. The Johannesburg franchise has been dire for a great many years now. John Mitchell has brought them Currie Cup glory and the next goal will be making the Super Rugby finals. For the second year running the Lions squad has looked better than it did the year before. The backs are pretty flash and this year will see CJ van der Linde add starch to the forwards. Could the Lions be the new Queensland Reds?
... the Cheetahs is their backrow. Juan Smith and Heinrich Brussouw spent most of the 2011 season on the sideline and in their absence Ashley Johnson’s star started to shine. This trio will make a dynamite back row, arguably the best in the competition, and will make the Cheetahs an absolute menace at the breakdown. The Cheetahs scrum will also make life miserable for a fair few opposition front rowers.
... the Stormers is the quality of their juniors coming through. Around the time that the Blue Bulls star shined in the Currie Cup and Super 14, the age grade teams in Pretoria were also racking up the wins. Now it seems like Capetown is churning out the stars. Will this year be the start of a golden age for the Stormers with a maiden Super Rugby Championship?
What I don’t rate about...
... the Bulls is the lack of game winners. Who in the Bulls squad can take command of a game the way that Matfield or du Preez could? The Bulls find themselves without the puzzle pieces to play their traditional style and a handful of players e.g. Morne Steyn who can do little else. Expect some floundering.
...the Sharks is their inability to convert. The Sharks have been a top side in the competition since 2006 yet, since contesting the 2007 final, the Durbanites have failed to make an impact come finals time. They are in danger of becoming a bit stale and unable to re-write the script come finals time.
... the Lions is the expectation. A Currie Cup win and suddenly the Lions are finals contenders. For a franchise that is finally on the way up after so many years, the last thing needed is expectation. The depth of the squad is still very questionable and teams will take the Lions more seriously this year.
... the Cheetahs is their inability to hold onto their stars. Far too often the other South African franchises raid the Cheetahs for their talented youngsters, particularly the Sharks. But the Cheetahs won’t make a serious fist of this competition until they can get a stable squad and tighten up a few areas of weakness such as their second row.
... the Stormers is their self-destruction come finals time. 2011 was the Stormer’s 4th finals appearance and the 4th time that the Stormers did not show the same fight they showed in the rest of the season. The Stormers have never come within a converted try of their opponents in their lost finals. It’s time for the Stormers to step it up a gear at the tail end of the competition. Will it be third-consecutive-time-in-the-finals lucky for the Stormers?
The Prediction
This is kind of tough given the equality in the South African conference. You’d have to have the Stormers as favourites. They have too much class about the park to argue with. The Sharks are a close second. The first choice team for the Sharks looks hot but depth isn’t what it used to be. The Cheetahs have an early opportunity to clock up some wins on the road. In over weeks the Cheetahs face the Brumbies, Rebels, Crusaders and Hurricanes. Even though they only registered their first away win outside of South Africa last season, they should be targeting three wins here. It will be interesting to see how the likes of Cipriani, Beale and O’Connor cope with the shitty ball (no, not literally) that Cheetah’s backrow afford them. The Bulls meanwhile start at home but have some monster teams to play- the Reds, the Blues and the Crusaders. I don’t think the Bulls will recover from their early season thrashings. The Lions also have a tough start. I would wager on the following order of finishing:
Stormers
Sharks
Cheetahs
Lions
Bulls
What do you think?
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