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Form in 2011
It is hard to know what to make of the Rebel’s first foray in Super Rugby. Was it a raging success? Was it a bit of a letdown? Did they do better than the Force did when they entered Super Rugby? The answer to that depends on whether you are a Force fan or a Rebels fan.
The Rebels certainly have developed a solid fan base with their Rebel Army, but still the Rebels’ average crowd was 10,000 less than that of the Force in 2006. Now times are a bit tougher at the moment with only the Reds enjoying better crowd figures than back then but 10,000 more people per game is good evidence that the right decision was made in 2004. You can’t argue with how awesome the Rebel’s stadium looks however.
So what about on the field? 3-0-13 isn’t such a bad start, especially after it was believed the Rebels would finish the season without a win after their round 1 annihilation at the hands of the Waratahs. Wins over domestic rivals the Force and Brumbies, as well as an amazing victory over the Wellington Hurricanes, gave the fans the taste of victory. There were also some sensational near misses. The two point loss to the Sharks in round 4 a particular stand out. The worrying thing for the Rebels, however, was that most of their success came earlier in the season and between their last win in week 7 and the final round of the competition the Rebels were unable to come close to any of their opponents. In a new squad and an extended competition depth was always going to be tested, but you really hope that performances are improving in the tail end of the competition to set yourself up for the following year.
But it is a new season for the Rebels. They have a year’s experience under their belt and some exciting new recruits. So how will they go in 2012?
Comings and Goings
All things considered, the Rebels have managed to keep a fairly stable squad from 2011. Of their eight departures, only Greg Somerville will be desperately missed. He was a rock in the Rebels front row. He has retired from rugby along with Kevin O’Neill and Sam Cordingley. The latter pair played a limited part in the Rebels’ inaugural season due to injury, which was shame since both players had a lot to offer. Another departee with a season crippled by injury is back rower Hoani MacDonald. Utility backs Peter Betham, JP du Plessis, Luke Rooney and Afusipa Taumoepeau are all gone from 2011. None of these guys made any particular impact with the Rebels last season with Rooney being a particular disappointment. In addition to these players, former World Cup winning coach Rod Macqueen has stepped aside as head coach of the Rebels.
Harold Mitchell has been wielding the cheque book in overdrive in preparing for 2012. The media mogul has picked up two of Australia’s brightest young backs in Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor. This will give a deadly edge to the Rebels’ backline and the ability to score tries out of nothing. Mitchell and head coach Damien Hill with have a full time job managing Beale, O’Connor and Danny Cipriani. It would be an interesting bet at the TAB as to which one of them stuffs up off the field first. In addition to these established stars, the Rebels have also picked up a few potential future stars in Mitch Inman and Paul Alo-Emile. Inman is coming into his 3rd season of Super Rugby and comes with pretty big wraps from Shute Shield followers. He has a gargantuan frame and, if he learns how to throw it around, he could well be the next Stirling Mortlock. PAE has yet to make a Super Rugby appearance and may be a few years off making an impact; however he has tremendous potential as a mammoth prop and is a good long-term investment for the Rebels. 2012 also sees the return of one of Melbourne’s rugby sons in Lloyd Johansson. LJ is best known for his sickening coat hanger on Stirling Mortlock in 2007- the two are now team mates! The Rebels have taken a bit of a game with Johansson as his development may not have been too good in Italy. You have to give the Rebels credit for picking up former Melbournites though.
Necks are over-rated.
Finally, to replace O’Neill, the Rebels have brought in Kiwi lock James King from North Harbour in the ITM Cup. Given that New Zealand’s second row stocks are probably it’s shallowest talent pool, you get the impression that King might be a bit of a journeyman.
The Strengths
As previously mentioned, the Rebels have three of the brightest young stars in rugby. Any coach would be drooling at the prospect of having any two of these guys let alone all three. When presented with a good attacking opportunity, they will have oppositions guessing and they will score tries. The attacking brilliance of this trio will be the biggest threat the Rebels pose. With a handful of centres tipping the scales at around 105kgs, the Rebels are bound to suck in defenders through Mortlock, Inman and Johansson and then unleash the terrorising trio to relish in the space provided.
The Weaknesses
Despite having some exciting backline stars, there are some clear weaknesses in the Rebels’ line-up. Outside of Beale and O’Connor, there is a distinct lack of pace amongst backs, particularly the wingers. This could be the difference between a break leading to a try or an opportunity squandered. Cooper Vuna provides a speedy option but comes with question marks over his defence. This leads into the team’s second weakness: Defence. Vuna and teammates Julian Huxley and Danny Cipriani were among the competition’s poorest tacklers in 2011. No matter how good your players are, if you don’t man up in defence you won’t win games. The addition of John Muggleton as defence coach will certainly help but most of all this will come down to the forwards. If the Rebels’ pigs make it harder for the opposition to get quality ball, the flow on will see a big improvement in defence. It is interesting, however, that the Rebels only signed 2 new forwards and neither are likely to start. Hill and Muggleton will perhaps be counting on the cohesion provided by a year’s playing experience together. I’m not convinced. The front row and back row are serviceable while the second row is uninspiring. They will be better, but the Rebels still have the weakest pack in the competition. O’Connor, Beale and Cipriani can’t plaster over that (although they might get plastered over that). There may yet be hope in the Chewbacca defence...
This is Chewbacca. He is a rugby player from the country Australia. But he plays for Russia. Now think about it; that does not make sense!
Watch out for...
Isaiah Mosese. This guy has a colourful history in rugby. Started things off at Nudgee College in Queensland only to move out west and into the Force academy for 2010/2011. He made his first appearance for Western'A' at just 16 and showed off some dazzling moves from the back three in a well beaten side. He might be a few years off truly being ready for Super Rugby but he is exactly what the Rebels need- a fast, elusive winger with superb finishing skills to boot.
The Prediction
The Rebels will definitely be better than last year and won’t get blown away quite so often. But you can expect a few lopsided scores. There are enough weaknesses for a smart team to exploit. It’ll be interesting to see if Damien Hill risks the defensive frailty of having a Cipriani/O’Connor inside back combination. I’d expect the Rebels to struggle against those teams who have mastered the art of grinding rugby e.g. the Bulls, Highlanders and Crusaders but to excel against the likes of the Lions, Chiefs and Hurricanes, who have weaker packs and prefer to give the ball some air. This will be a year for building confidence and becoming a credible force in Super Rugby. It’ll be a few wins and a fair few near misses. I’m calling the Rebels for 12th.
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Originally Posted by WF1964
