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A week is a long time in World Cup finals rugby. But perhaps for Kurtley Beale a week just isn’t quite long enough. The Wallabies have kept Australian hopes and dreams alive with a Houdini-esque escape from the clutches of the mighty Springboks. In less than 48 hours we face arguably the toughest assignment in our World Cup history: Defeating the Kiwis at home at Eden Park in the semi-final.
This game was inevitable for the Wallabies. There were expectations we would top our pool and that this would be our final, however there was no way we would be lifting the trophy next weekend without first putting New Zealand to the sword. That it comes this weekend rather than next may just be a blessing in disguise. If ever New Zealand were going to be vulnerable psychologically, it would be the semi-final. They have one eye on next week and the other eye on four million odd fans who demand success. The pressure must be intense.
The Wallabies have the luxury of playing without this pressure. We haven’t won in New Zealand in 10 years. We haven’t won at Eden Park in 25. The fans were satisfied with the courage on show in the stone wall defence against South Africa. There is hope and there is desire but a loss on Sunday won’t be the start of another 4 year period of mourning.
The Form Guide
History overwhelmingly favours the Kiwis in this one, especially when you consider it is an away game for the Wallabies. Twenty five years is a long time to go winless at a venue we play at about every second year. But there are some positives for the Wallabies. A ten match losing streak against the New Zealanders was ended in Hong Kong last year and the Wallabies won this year’s Brisbane encounter to take 2 wins from the last 3 games. Is the black tide turning?
In the tournament the Wallabies have been in mixed form. Defence has been ‘A’ grade despite a few lapses in intensity against Russia and the USA. Our decision-making on attack and with our kicking has been poor as has our set piece. We really should consider ourselves lucky that we are still in the tournament. To now, I would rate us at C+ on form.
To be honest, the All Blacks haven’t been a whole lot better. While they won all of their pool matches comfortably, it almost seemed like they were lacking something. Their quarter final with Argentina looked comfortable on the scoreboard; however it was anything but in the lounge rooms of New Zealand. People have said “Well that’s just because the All Blacks were only playing at 80% to save themselves for next week.” Call it what you like, the Kiwis struggled for three quarters of the match to cut loose from a side that they should have pummelled comfortably. Arguably the loss of Dan Carter hurt, and the loss of Colin Slade rubbed a bit of salt in the wound, but you can’t afford to rely too much on one player. Richie McCaw may just finish this weekend’s game with a stump for a foot the way he has battled through injury. I give the ABs a B- on form. Will they be able to step up a gear against the Wallabies?
The Key Men
David Pocock. What a legend. Rugby is a team sport but David is a team unto himself. David is so awesome that the Irish have been trying to claim him as their own- saying that the ‘P’ is silent and there is an apostrophe after the first ‘O’ (Davidp O’Cock). The South Africans agree. There were lots of Bok fans shouting “Ohhh Cock!” last weekend. Can David roll out another 10/10 performance this weekend? What a time that would be to peak as a player!
Daniel Vickerman showed us why he was in the side last weekend. Vicks hit rucks with reckless abandon and gave the Springbok forwards a taste of their own medicine. If we are going to beat New Zealand, we have to fluster them physically. While Vickerman’s presence unfortunately leaves second row stalwart Nathan Sharpe out of the match day 22, he will be the kind of menace to New Zealand at the breakdown that we need.
The halves combination of Will Genia and Quade Cooper need to get their stuff sorted. They just couldn’t find a groove against the Springboks. There was poor option taking, poor and predictable kicking, and no evidence of any running game. These guys have the potential to set the game alight with their combined talents and we will need them to do exactly that if we want any chance of downing New Zealand.
For New Zealand the key man on Sunday may just be Piri Weepu. The veteran scrum-half was superb against the Pumas and was able to shoulder a lot of the responsibility for directing play to the benefit of Slade and then Cruden. His kicking was also brilliant. He will have a big job ahead of him in containing Genia and managing Cruden through the match. He can probably expect a fair bit of attention himself as the Wallabies will apply the blowtorch to the New Zealand halves in the hope that they can disrupt the ball going out to New Zealand’s mouth watering backline.
It goes without saying that Richie McCaw will be central to anything the All Blacks get up to. But how is his foot really? Is he able to tranquilise it out of consideration? How will he cope going up against an inform David Pocock in the battle of the breakdown? Will he even play? The Wallabies will hope the answers to these questions are: Bad, No, Badly, No. McCaw is a titan of rugby and whether he can play to potential with the way his foot is may have a big impact on the match.
Owen Franks is a pain in the ass. When he isn’t putting a lot of heat on the Wallaby scrum he is loitering around on the opposition’s side of the ruck getting in the way and being a nuisance. He tackles hard and runs well for a prop. It will be in the scrum where he will be key for the All Blacks however. Craig Joubert is renowned for rewarding the dominant scrum and Owens is bound to win his team a few penalties.
What it will come down to
This game is rightfully the New Zealander’s to win. There have been too many years of success against the Wallabies in New Zealand at Eden Park, including this year’s 30-14 demolition. It’s true that the Wallabies are better now than they were then. It’s also true that the All Blacks won’t be as potent without Carter and with an injured McCaw. But still the Wallabies will need the All Blacks to defeat themselves. We need to heap bucket loads of pressure onto the ABs and force them to play in a manner that they are uncomfortable. That means earning an early lead. It means good decision making. It means rolling out every last trick in Robbie’s book that he has invariably been saving for this exact occasion. Is Robbie Deans a wonder coach? Nathan Sharpe fans will say hell no. But even they cannot argue if Deans somehow manages to pull off the kind of game plan, as Eddie did in 2003, which scuttles the All Blacks. This game will come down to whether or not the Wallabies can apply and sustain pressure on the All Blacks.
The Prediction
It is hard to argue against New Zealand on this one. Too many times we have come to New Zealand shores hopeful of the upset victory. Too many times expectation has led to disappointment. So why bother? Take a leaf out of Wales’ book. Enjoy being there. Enjoy the fact that win or lose; you won’t sink your country into a national depression. Coming into the game with that kind of relaxation might be just what the likes of Cooper and Genia need to pull off what could just be the win of the century for the Wallabies. Unfortunately, I just don’t think we will be enough. New Zealand by 8.
Teams
New Zealand: Israel Dagg, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Richard Kahui, Aaron Cruden, Piri Weepu, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (capt), Jerome Kaino, Brad Thorn, Samuel Whitelock, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock. Replacements: Andrew Hore, Ben Franks, Ali Williams, Victor Vito, Andy Ellis, Stephen Donald, Sonny Bill Wiliams.
Australia: Kurtley Beale/Adam Ashley-Cooper, James O'Connor, Ashley-Cooper/Anthony Faingaa, Pat McCabe, Digby Ioane, Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Radike Samo, David Pocock, Rocky Elsom, James Horwill (capt), Dan Vickerman, Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu. Replacements: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Rob Simmons, Ben McCalman, Luke Burgess, Berrick Barnes, Faingaa/Rob Horne
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