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We’ve hit the business end of the competition. The Wallabies have had their hiccup. Mistakes now mean another failed campaign and a few thousand disappointed fans. It isn’t worth thinking about. And hopefully we won't have to experience it as we take a look at the Wallabies vs the Springboks in the Rugby World Cup quarter finals.
The Form Guide
In head to head against the Springboks things have never been better for the Wallabies. We have won 5 of the last 6 games against the Springboks including two key away wins. That is the best record any country can boast against South Africa at the moment. However ask someone at the start of the year if they thought we would be able to beat the Boks 3 times in a year and I doubt you’d get a yes. The South Africans are an excellent side and could easily claim mitigating circumstances for some of their losses. Included in this would be key players injured, the first choice team rested, poor team selection, poor coaching, etc. They have moved on since the Tri-Nations and they represent a big threat in the quarter finals.
It is hard to judge South Africa’s form in their pool having not faced off against similar opponents. You get the feeling that their narrow win against Wales and the pressure they faced against Samoa speak of team that is not in the kind of form we have seen in previous years. South Africa are getting progressively worse against Wales and were under a lot more pressure than the usual against Samoa. Is the beast about to wake up, or is the beast spluttering along on its last legs?
Australia have been far from great. The only tough pool match we had saw the team completely capitulate. The only positive that can be taken from this is that it makes a bit of a wake-up call for the Wallabies and, for a team who can rarely string three wins together, a breather so that we can put together three big wins in the finals.
The last two World Cups have seen the defending champions roll through to contest a final that arguably they should not have been in; can the Springboks continue the trend?
The Match-Ups
The Wallabies will breathe a collective sigh of relief in Pieter de Villiers team selection. Starting with the front row, PdV has broken up the powerful Sharks’ trio or the Beast and the brothers du Plessis for a Jannie du Plessis, John Smit and Gurthro Steenkamp front row. The Wallabies’ Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu will definitely favour themselves here. Smit is past it and has been for the past two years. Steenkamp is a danger, however, and has a try scoring record against the Wallabies that would impress most wingers. The big danger here will be the sub in of the Bismarck. The Wallabies will need to bring in the Taf to counter his physicality and will hope that PdV is once again stupid enough to move Smit from hooker to prop as the game goes on.
The second row will see an exciting battle between Victor Matfield/Danie Roussow and James Horwill/Dan Vickerman. It comes with more than just a bit of disappointment for both sides that the duel is missing two of the most iconic locks for each country. Psychopath on a leash, Bakkies Botha, is out injured while Australia’s Nathan Sharpe has not been selected to start because Robbie Deans is a douche bag. Matfield will be a big danger in the line-out without Sharpe and Vickerman will need to be at his best to reliably retain the ball. The Wallabies duo will relish this one area where they will be more physical than the Boks.
The scrap between the two rival backrows could arguably one of the best of this World Cup. Elsom, Pocock and Samo will go hammer and tongs against Burger, Brussow and Spies. It is very, very hard to separate these guys. Each player could arguably claim to be among the best two or three players in his position in the World. The Wallabies have had to play Brussow just once in the last two years and in his return to test rugby the Bok 7 showed just how dangerous he can be. Will he stifle the Wallabies’ electric attack? Who will win the titanic battle between Pocock and Brussow?
The halves combination sees the Reds’ Genia-Cooper meet once against with the Bulls’ du Preez-Steyn. The Reds’ pair ran riot in the Super Rugby and again in the Tri-Nations, however World Cup Rugby is a different story altogether. Where Genia and Cooper are dynamic young players, du Preez and Steyn have old heads and are better able to do what needs to be done in pressure matches. They are a bit short on form, however.
The rest of the two backlines have enough spice for a cracking contest. There is speed in the likes of Bryan Habana, power in Digby Ioane and Jaque Fourie, finesse and guile in Jean de Villiers, and X-factor in James O’Connor, Patrick Lambie and Kurtley Beale. The two backlines will certainly have each other feeling nervous.
What It Will Come Down To
Experience. Or learning. It depends on how you look at it. How much have we learnt from the last handful of games against the Springboks? How much did we learn from our loss against Ireland? How much have we learnt from our three games refereed by Bryce Lawrence this year?
Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result each time- Will Robbie Deans’ bloody mindedness be our undoing once again? Will we be able to adapt the game plan and the referee management so there won’t be any excuses? We are good enough to beat the Boks. We have beaten the Boks a lot recently. Despite a lot of people talking about how Bryce Lawrence is a terrible referee, we have beaten the Boks with Bryce running the game in Durban. We can’t use that as an excuse. There can’t be any excuses for anything. The only thing other than a win could be an absolutely sublime Springbok performance that overwhelms a passionate and committed Wallabies side. The fans deserve nothing less than that.
The Outcome
This one looks very, very close. Now instinct says South Africa would be favourites to edge a close one with their superior kicking and conservative play. But youth is no longer on their side and I don’t think some of the old heads have what it takes to contain the Wallabies, especially after 4 weeks of competition. I’d expect the Wallabies to settle into a good rhythm between the 20-60 minute mark only for the Boks to strike back in the final quarter with the likes of du Plessis and Alberts taking the field. Not enough for them to win it though. Wallabies by 6.
The Teams
Wallabies:
Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Pat McCabe, Digby Ioane, Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Radike Samo, Rocky Elsom, David Pocock, James Horwill, Dan Vickerman, Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Nathan Sharpe, Ben McCalman, Luke Burgess, Berrick Barnes, Anthony Faingaa.
Springboks
Patrick Lambie, JP Pietersen, Jaque Fourie, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana, Morne Steyn, Fourie du Preez, Pierre Spies, Schalk Burger, Heinrich Brüssow, Victor Matfield, Danie Rossouw, Jannie du Plessis, John Smit, Gurthro Steenkamp Reserves: Bismarck du Plessis, CJ van der Linde, Willem Alberts, Francois Louw, Francois Hougaard, Butch James, Gio Aplon
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Was the wait worth it - Ya betta baby 