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We come into our third Tri-Nations game having lost the Bledisloe Cup for another year. The Tri-Nations trophy, however, is still up for grabs and a win in Durban would sit very nicely for our preparations for the coming two months.
How are they travelling?
It’s hard to tell exactly how the Springboks are going form wise. They sent a second rate team for their away tests in this season’s Tri-Nations, which was understandably crushed underfoot. Their last Tri-Nations wasn’t a whole lot better with just one win in six games. Add onto that a loss to Scotland and a very lucky save against Wales on their last Spring tour and things are looking a little bit bleak for this year’s World Cup. Like England in 2007, however, the Springboks may just be revelling in having dispelled expectation of a successful World Cup defence and should never be discounted. The good news for the home side is that they are relatively injury free and capable of running out a near full strength side.
It isn’t hard to tell how the Wallabies are going. We have seen a return to that frustrating old habit of playing well one week and poorly the next. Well last weekend was the poor, so this week should be the good. Fingers crossed anyway. The team just hasn’t seemed to have clicked into place yet, but I suppose there is still time to get things together and win the cup. We are still in the Tri-Nations Championship race having denied the All Blacks a bonus point in Auckland. A strong win here would have the Wallabies in a box seat to win their first tournament in almost 10 years.
Opportunities
The big plus for the Wallabies coming into this game is the lack of match fitness of the Springboks. Having trotted out their ‘B’ team for the games in Australia and New Zealand, the Springbok big guns aren’t likely to be ready for the intensity and the pace of an international test, with some of the players not having played a match in almost 2 months. David Pocock made a fair point that experience minimises this factor, however you can’t help but think that a game at sea-level against a Wallabies side hardened from a physical encounter against the All Blacks will require every ounce of commitment. Especially since this Wallabies team will be desperate to answer their critics after last weekend, cement a spot in the 30 man World Cup squad, and put their Tri-Nations campaign back on track.
This should play perfectly into the Wallabies’ hands as a low intensity start to the game from South Africa could see the visitors run in a few earlier tries, as we did in both of last year’s tests in South Africa, andthe Boks to chase the game. On the other hand, perhaps the weeks off will have the likes of Bismarck du Plessis and Bakkies Botha itching to get out onto the field and crunch some bones. If the Wallabies can take a lead, or even be close on the scoreboard, with 20 minutes to go, we might just nab this one. Neither of the two benches looks particularly threatening, outside of du Plessis for the Boks, and you would have to back the Wallabies over the Springboks for having the legs for the full 80.
On an individual level, you can’t go past Pieter de Villier’s decision to retain John Smit in the starting line-up despite having Bismarck du Plessis at his disposal. Not that Robbie Deans isn’t doing a bit of the same himself, but Smit simply isn’t up to pace of Test rugby anymore. He’ll probably get subbed earlyish on but it won’t take long for him to start struggling if we can give the ball some width from the word go.
I always enjoy seeing Francois Steyn’s name on a Springboks team sheet. Unless something has changed and he has matured a lot over the last year, the guy is worth a good two or three brain explosions per game. Sure he’s got a booming kick and the ability to nail a drop goal from just about anywhere, but he has never really played as a team player and doesn’t seem to fit in well with the dynamic of the Springboks team. There is a definite opportunity to apply some heat to the Springbok back three. Habana’s a bit out of form, Pietersen can’t kick and Steyn makes crappy decisions. There has got to be a try or two in that.
Threats
The All Blacks beat the Wallabies last weekend with aggressive defence and a no-holds-barred approach to the breakdown, and the Springboks are capable of doing exactly the same. Intimidation is the bread and butter of the Boks and you can expect them, especially Butch James, to get in our faces all night. They may not have the finesse of McCaw and co, but what they lose in flair, they make up for in brutality, on and off the ball. Hopefully we will have taken plenty away from last weekend. You have to wonder how much of Cooper’s bad game was a result of the pressure the All Blacks put on him.
Given some of the meat sacks selected by the Boks (Rossouw, Botha, et al.), these guys are going to be a big danger with the rolling maul. Power + Size + Not having to be too athletic and mobile = Danger. With a capital D. Sharpie and Horwill will have to get in quick to sack the maul or it will be try time for the Boks. The Wallabies forwards haven't really played properly as a team this year but they will need to in order to contain the Boks. This will be a true test of whether Rocky Elsom can marshal his troops.
Although he seems to have lost his shine this year and last, big Vic will be a big threat. He has been unsurpassed as a line-out technician for the last 7 years. Thankfully, Nathan Sharpe is back and has plenty of experience against Matfield and should be able to limit the damage. After his try set-up against the Wallabies last year, we also have to be very careful of the Matfield chip and chase. That was a classic move.
Heinrich Brussouw is another Bok who brings more than just a tingle of nervousness. Brussouw was simply amazing back in 2009 and played a large part in the Bok’s 3-0 sweep of the All Blacks. While he hasn’t really played much this year or last year due to injury, he was the form 7 in the world in 2009 and clearly outpointed McCaw and Pocock. Will he be able to return to form? Will he have the required match fitness to mix it with the Wallabies for 80 minutes? I bloody hope not.
Players to watch out for...
This game may be a last audition for some Wallabies aspiring to make Robbie’s final cut. Radike Samo and Ben McCalman are in direct competition for one of those spots and both will be warming the bench. Who will run out first? Will they be able to make a statement when they do come on? One player who I think will have a lot to say will be Nathan Sharpe. The big man will be very frustrated at having been dropped for Rob Simmons, particularly after Simmons’ average mediocre performance against the All Blacks. Expect Sharpie to take that frustration out on the Boks and provide the Wallabies with go forward, secure restarts, a quick sacking of the Springbok maul, and hopefully parity in the line-out.
It has been a long while since Butch James last played for the Boks. He ran the cutter for the Springboks in the 2007 Cup final and many South Africans believe he is a better option than Morne Steyn in executing the Bok’s style of play. This year Butch returned to his hometown by rejoining the Golden Lions and will look to use this game to cement his place as the Springbok fly-half for September and October. Expect a bit more creativity from the Springbok attack. Expect aggressive tackling with a few cheap shots here and there. Hell, maybe we can even expect a yellow card.
Predicted Result
I actually think we are due a win here. We’ve got a Springbok side that lacks match fitness, is carrying a few out of form players and perhaps a couple of guys who should be eased back in versus a Wallabies side that will want to make up for the humiliation of last weekend. We got one over on the Boks last time we played in South Africa and almost did the time before that. We aren’t playing at altitude this time and, where we have matured a bit, I think the Boks have regressed- probably due to an ageing team. I have a feeling we will jump out of the blocks to an early lead, only to be reeled back in by the superior Springbok kicking game, but to hold onto a narrow lead to full time. Wallabies by 2.
Did you know?
Of the Springboks who started the 2007 World Cup final against England, 10 will be starting against the Wallabies on Saturday. Do they still have what it takes? In contrast, Robbie Deans has only three- Nathan Sharpe, Rocky Elsom and Adam Ashley-Cooper- who started in the Wallabies last game of that World Cup campaign. Shows a bit of a difference between Deans and de Villier’s styles.
The Teams:
Wallabies: Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Pat McCabe, Digby Ioane; Quade Cooper, Will Genia; Scott Higginbotham, David Pocock, Rocky Elsom (capt), James Horwill, Nathan Sharpe, Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu. Reserves: Saia Faingaa, Salesi Ma’afu, Sitaleki Timani, Radike Samo, Ben McCalman, Luke Burgess, Anthony Faingaa.
Springboks: Frans Steyn, JP Pietersen, Bryan Habana, Jaque Fourie, Jean de Villiers, Butch James, Fourie du Preez, Pierre Spies, Danie Rossouw, Heinrich Brüssow, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield, Jannie du Plessis, John Smit (capt), Tendai ‘The Beast’ Mtawarira Reserves: Gio Aplon, Morne Steyn, Francois Hougaard, Jean Deysel, Gerhard Mostert, Bismarck du Plessis, Gurthrö Steenkamp.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence
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