Grumbles Wallabies World Cup-ometer
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In three weeks, the Wallabies selectors will announce their 30-man World Cup squad. Many players are jostling for positions, with performances in the Tri Nations and at training crucial in determining the final squad. Greg Growden determines who are the certainties, who is hovering and who either needs to do a lot of work or make a miraculous comeback to be in New Zealand in September-October.
Grumbles15 certainties
THE selectors are half-way towards achieving their objective. As long as injuries don’t cripple theWallabies during the next three Tri Nations matches, there are already 15 World Cup certainties. You can assume that 14 of the 15 players who succeeded in putting an under-strength Springboks team in their place in Sydney last weekend are on the Auckland flight on September 6.
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The only starting-XV member who needs another sturdy Test performance to make the definite category is inside-centre Pat McCabe. The selectors are happy with how the Brumbies midfielder played against Samoa and South Africa, being especially delighted with his fearless attitude in always running straight and defending until dead on his feet. One more solid effort, especially against the All Blacks, should make the No.12 jersey his.
There are still quibbles from several notable observers that McCabe hogs the ball at times; not surprising considering that he has played quite a deal of his football on the fringes at fullback and wing.
Of the reserves who played against the Springboks, there is one certain World Cup selection: backrower Scott Higginbotham. Higginbotham is already putting pressure on captain Rocky Elsom as the starting Test blindside breakaway. Higginbotham, the type of tough, mongrel forward the Wallabies desperately need to strike fear into key World Cup opponents – South Africa, England, New Zealand and Ireland – could easily play at No.8, and is bound to be a great ally to their team’s No 1 openside breakaway – David Pocock.
The first players chosen for the World Cup will be Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor, Quade Cooper, Will Genia, David Pocock, Elsom and James Horwill. Horwill’s Queensland second-row partner Rob Simmons, even though he has only played seven Tests and just three in the starting XV, should also consider himself an important Wallabies selection – as there are many who see him as a future John Eales.
While Horwill is the frothy, arms-flying-all-ways type of lock, Simmons is the smiling assassin, and the pair are more than likely to be the Australian second-row combination for the bulk of the tournament. The most likely back-up is Dan Vickerman, who is similar to Higginbotham in frightening opponents because of his fervour, aggression and high work rate.
Vickerman will keep all the Wallabies forwards focused during the tournament. As long as he can regain his form in the Sydney club ranks, Vickerman is bound to join the ‘‘hot’’ ranks soon. As Wallabies World Cup winning captain Nick Farr-Jones said in yesterday’s Herald, the front row is all important, and here some players already making their mark. Just a few months ago, Waratahs prop Sekope Kepu, nursing a knee injury, was in serious doubt of even being in contention. Now after two Tests, in the absence of Benn Robinson, he has made the loosehead prop spot his.
The only area where the Wallabies did not fall down against Samoa was the scrum, while the performance against the Springboks was well above average. Through that, Kepu has pushed himself up the ratings, and being able to hold steady against the All Blacks will be the next big test.
Injuries are a concern but the ball is in their court
THERE are a large number of players on the fringe of World Cup selection, many due to injury concerns and uncertainty over when they will return; or there is too much talent in front of them.
The date when several important players, such as Tatafu Polota-Nau, Drew Mitchell, James Slipper, Wycliff Palu and Rob Horne are match fit again will be crucial in determining whether they make the World Cup cut.
It could even be the case that several players, such as Palu and Mitchell, may be relying on an Australian Barbarians-Canada match on the Gold Coast, which is being held the week after the squad is official announced, to convince the selectors that they are ready.
How these players fare will also determine whether numerous other training squad members suddenly become candidates or fall onto the ‘‘cold’’ list. It is also certain that some ‘‘cold’’ players will suddenly become markedly warmer, especially if the selection options suddenly run out.
The Wallabies are keen for the return of Berrick Barnes, who they see as the back-up for a number of midfield positions. But it all revolves around him regaining his self-belief and proving that he has overcome all of his head complaints so that he is again ready for Test football. Barnes’s return for Sydney University, where he really put in against Penrith last Saturday, was extremely encouraging. He is also liked by the selectors because of his positive attitude, which rubs off onto many others whenever the Wallabies are in camp. It could easily come down to Barnes and Matt Giteau vying for the final backs spot.
A player on the ‘‘warm’’ list who may surprise is ACT prop Salesi Ma’afu. The Brumbies may have had a disastrous season, but the Wallabies selectors have long been impressed with Ma’afu’s scrummaging abilities, rating him among the best in the Australia. He is hovering close to one of the backup prop spots.
They similarly rate Waratahs centre Rob Horne highly. His biggest problem has not been inconsistent form, but an inability to stay on the field for a long time due to an atrocious run with injuries. He is scheduled to return to club football today, and the selectors are bound to be seeking a tape of the Southern Districts- Gordon match at Chatswood Oval.
As the Wallabies are expected to take four locks, there will be some notable names who miss out. Apart from Horwill and Simmons, there is Dan Vickerman, Nathan Sharpe, Dean Mumm and Sitaleki Timani vying for spots. Vickerman should be the third choice, and Sharpe the fourth – but it could be tight because Timani may sneak in.
Sharpe is no certainty and the Wallabies veteran will know that. Timani’s Test debut against Samoa was hardly stunning, but the selectors have not given up on him – they like his robust lead from the front play. He could easily be a World Cup bolter.
A player who did not make the original 40-man squad, but should not be forgotten or ignored, is Reds inside centre Ben Tapuai. In the final rounds of Super Rugby, against excellent opposition which included numerous overseas players whom the Wallabies will encounter during the Tri Nations, Tapuai stood up to the pressure.
He was unlucky to miss out on the Tri Nations training squad.
Almost inevitably, one player will be named in the final squad who is completely unexpected. Who knows, there may be even more of a Reds tinge if Tapaui emerges from left-field.
And who will be the bolter?
ON top of the humiliation of losing to Samoa, a number of players also had to cope with the reality that they had damaged their chances of being selected for the World Cup squad. Matt Giteau would seem to be the most obvious casualty after he missed out on the 22-man squad to play the Springboks the following week. His omission was a clear message from the selectors that Giteau is now on the outer. However, that does not mean that he has no chance of making the World Cup. He could still make the squad as the back-up man. His inclusion depends on what happens to Quade Cooper and Berrick Barnes over the next few months. If Cooper can stay free of injury and Barnes gets back to full match fitness, then Giteau will probably miss out. If either of those two runs into problems, Giteau will still be seen as the next-best option.
The halfback situation may also help Giteau, at the expense of Nick Phipps. Phipps was exposed against Samoa, with the Wallabies selectors now contemplating taking just two halfbacks to the World Cup. If so, Phipps will miss out, as Will Genia and Luke Burgess are well ahead of him.
But perhaps the Wallabies will take Giteau as the third halfback. The Samoans’ ability to successfully hassle Phipps did not help his cause, nor did his tough year with the Melbourne Rebels. Phipps is no lost cause and is bound to play for the Wallabies again, but his final Test record may not include 2011 World Cup appearances.
Other players who have dropped down the rankings due to the loss to Samoa are Mark Gerrard, who performed creditably at fullback but was replaced relatively early; Matt Hodgson, whose small build was exposed by the enormous Pacific Island forwards; and winger Rod Davies, who struggled on the slippery surface. Hodgson is still a chance, with Beau Robinson his most obvious rival for that backup breakaway role.
But Gerrard and Davies could now miss out, especially as they are unlikely to get any more chances before the World Cup squad is announced. Benn Robinson is in the ‘‘cold’’ category because of the uncertainty over his knee injury. The team management has high hopes, but for Robinson, who not that long ago was adjudged the best loosehead prop in the world, it will be touch and go. Palu is in a similar position, even though there is a strong chance he will play in the Australian Barbarians-Canada match in late August.
Also, as Wallabies coach Robbie Deans has been keen to make it a young, vibrant squad, revolving around many who are indebted to him for their Test chance, don’t suddenly expect an influx of veterans. There is a lot of sentimentality about Al Baxter, Stirling Mortlock and Phil Waugh making the cut but they are at best rank outsiders and would have to rely on a mountain of injuries to make a rapid rise up the pecking order.
Nonetheless, a World Cup team that is gutted with every ailment under the sun just before heading to the tournament has happened before.
And when this happens, teams often call in wily old foxes.
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