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Thread: Fox Sports stats gurus offer a Wallaby XV based on numbers

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    Veteran laura's Avatar
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    Fox Sports stats gurus offer a Wallaby XV based on numbers

    Fox Sports stats gurus offer a Wallaby XV based on numbers
    By Iain Payten
    April 24, 2009

    Robbie Deans pops back up on the radar, John O'Neill holds court on the Test schedule and legendary ex-Australian stars are anointed as ambassadors.

    Yes, there's no mistaking it. It's getting very close to Wallabies time again and the selection clock is ticking loud and clear for players.

    Six weeks remain before the first sighting of the gold jersey against the Barbarians in Sydney. Setting aside any finals involvement, there are only four weekends left of Super 14 for Wallaby wannabes to earn themselves an asterisk or three on the Deans list.

    And some of the biggest names in Australia could possibly need them.

    In the interests of debate the statistics gurus at Fox Sports Stats offer a Wallaby XV based on who has the numbers on the board in 2009.

    There are many indefinables in selection, like commitment, support, courage, attitude. Things stats columns don't always capture. But performance under pressure is hard to beat as a starting guide, and the following men have tallied up the best collection of key indicators after 10 weeks of competition.

    Fullback: Overlooked by Deans in 2008, Brumbies fullback Mark Gerrard is the pick of fullbacks. Drew Mitchell ranks high in running metres gained and linebreaks, but Gerrard has a whopping 3818 kick metres, provides creativity when passing, can bust tackles and missed half the number of tackles as Mitchell.

    Remember, incumbent Adam Ashley-Cooper has played wing this year. And keep an eye out for Mark McLinden. The busy fullback has the Leon MacDonald-style run-pass-kick balance that Deans values.

    Wingers: A very tight category, but Cameron Shepherd has made strong claims for one spot after just five games, with four tries, good tackle busts, line breaks and creating attack for others. Plus, his kicking metres are by far the best.

    Tuqiri runs the most but has struggled on the end of NSW's backline, with only 18 tackle busts and four linebreaks in 10 games. The numbers throw up Lachie Turner as the other pick, with four tries, good run metres and tackle busts. Ashley-Cooper and Peter Hynes also solid.

    Outside Centre: You'd put money on Stirling Mortlock, but Digby Ioane's stats this year can't be ignored. The Queenslander leads the Super 14 in run metres (1173), is second in linebreaks (12) and tackle busts (59), and fourth in offloads (16). Will be in the mix, but a wing spot is more realistic.

    Inside Centre: Berrick Barnes is still the man. Has good numbers in offloads and try assists and shows his kicking value with 2419 metres. Tom Carter has twice the tackles as most, but nowhere near the link skills of last year.

    Five-eighth: Matt Giteau's consistently good numbers make him the man, as usual. Creativity numbers are high, as are kicking numbers. Quade Cooper shapes as a back-up, with similarly good creativity and kicking. But he misses almost one-third of his tackles.

    Halfback: Luke Burgess' running threat keeps him ahead of the pack. He has made 24 more runs than the nearest rival, and busted 15 tackles. A regular start at the Force has proved fruitful for Josh Valentine. He is just ahead of Josh Holmes as a back-up.

    No.8 Eight: Wycliff Palu is the power runner, with 62m a game and 29 tackle busts, but Richard Brown's industry and accuracy is hard to ignore. Has only missed three of 62 tackles in six games, has three pilfers and six forced penalties over the ball. Also a good lineout option.

    Flankers: Typically, open side is a dogfight, but George Smith has the overall edge. His running game and link skills, with 16 offloads, set him apart from the equally worthy David Pocock and Phil Waugh.

    Rocky Elsom will be blindside if available, but Ben Mowen's value in the lineout has seen him as the pick of the No. 6s in Super 14. Remember second-rowers Dean Mumm and Hugh McMeniman also play this spot.

    Second-row: Mumm will get a spot somewhere. His ability to read lineouts has seen him pinch five opposition throws. Nathan Sharpe is the mailman of the lineout, with 41 takes on own throw to go with an average of 8.2 runs per game. McMeniman is up there, but James Horwill is not firing after returning from injury.

    Props: Tough to rank props on stats. Benn Robinson is a no-brainer given his scrum dominance this year at loosehead - and 67 tackles - although Ben Alexander's mobility is also top-rate. Al Baxter's injury has opened the door for Guy Sheperdson to stick his hand up at tighthead.

    Hooker: Incumbent Stephen Moore is hard to go past, with solidity at scrum time, great mobility and link skills and 85 per cent accuracy throwing into the lineout. Tatafu Polota-Nau is dynamic running and tackling, but has a poor 74 per cent accuracy in lineout throwing.

    http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,...-23217,00.html


    Interesting to note JO'C doesn't crack a mention.

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    Champion prop53's Avatar
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    I dont believe the ones leaving to go overseas should get a look in. Even if they are ahead in the picking order by a country mile. Also i believe players coming back to the fold should have a season back at 14 level before consideration.

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    Interesting to see what the stats said by April 26, 2009...

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    Veteran mudskipper's Avatar
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    I think Deans will look to the future and the players going OS wont play a part this season.... Deans has his eye on the RWC prize... He as 13 games in 2009 to shape the Wallabies then has to what a year... In 2010 he will want to be fielding his preferred Wallabies, which should make up the RWC squad for 2011... Obviously there will be a few exceptions but Deans will want to build and start to hone core team combinations...

    Also there is no Australia A so he wont be able to watch players just outside the Wallabies form.

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    Quote Originally Posted by laura View Post
    [B][U]Has only missed three of 62 tackles in six games,
    Now that is impressive...

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    Brownie has only missed three of 62 tackles in six games.

    That's why we love him!

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