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Investec Super 14 - Analyzing the Run Home
The Sharks might be sitting pretty at the midway point of the Investec Super 14 but plenty can still happen in the run-up to the semi-finals in what is shaping up as the most even competition in years.
While Saturday’s 35-14 win over the Brumbies took the Sharks to the top of the standings; history suggests that the Durbanites still have a lot to do if they are to confirm semi-final participation, and home advantage for the playoffs.
Last year saw the Crusaders require 52 log points to head the table at the end of the preliminary round, while the required number was 51 in 2006.
In 2007, the Sharks claimed top spot with 45 championship points, but that was an extraordinary year of results – and saw the second, third and fourth teams all finish tied on 42 log points.
Such table congestion is possible again, although the Sharks will keep themselves well out of the dog-fight for ranking positions, if they can maintain their present pace.
Despite having toured, which is the phase in Super Rugby where teams are traditionally vulnerable, the Sharks already have 26 log points – and will play five of their remaining six matches in Durban, with the other up on the high veldt at Bloemfontein.
A runaway leader at the top of the table may assist some of the chasing teams, by lowering the bar in terms of the number of log points required to claim fourth spot.
This is one reason why all but the winless Cheetahs still retain possible hopes of figuring in the semi-finals.
The second reason why all is not lost for the five teams currently grouped together on either 12 or 13 log points is the fact that the Sharks are one of six teams still to sit a weekend out with the bye.
Other current top four sides in the same boat are the second-placed Waratahs and the third ranked Chiefs, while the Highlanders, Crusaders and Blues (all 18 log points) from the chasing pack have also still to miss a round.
Further muddying the qualifying picture is the fact that the Waratahs, Chiefs, Highlanders, Crusaders and Blues are all still to embark on their overseas tours, while the fourth-placed Bulls still have three matches to play before they return to South Africa.
In the circumstances, points for and against could be critical; as they have been in each of the three previous Super 14 competitions where differentials have been used as a tiebreaker to decide either the semi-final finishing order, or to determine semi-final qualification between the fourth and fifth placed sides.
There are 46 games still to be played before the semi-finalists are determined, and every one of them will count!
Here’s the respective runs home for the 14 teams:..........
Investec Super 14 - Analyzing the Run Home
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, there is a maximum of 35 pts up for grabs in the remaining 7 games. Given our current position on 12pts, we will realisitically need to earn at least 24 points to be in with a chance of qualification for the finals, depending on some favourable results. 
Originally Posted by Burgs
