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Top spot at stake in rankings again
(IRB.COM) Thursday 12 June 2008
South Africa’s position as the number one side in the IRB World Rankings is under threat again on a busy weekend of international rugby, with New Zealand in line to return to top spot if Wales defeat the world champions in Pretoria on Saturday.
The Springboks defeated the Six Nations Grand Slam winners 43-17 in Bloemfontein last weekend, a result that did not have any impact on either side’s rankings, just as New Zealand’s 21-11 win over Ireland in pouring rain in Wellington didn’t.
However, were South Africa to lose to Wales in the second Test then New Zealand would replace them on top of the rankings on Monday, providing the All Blacks overcome England at Eden Park in the first of two Tests over consecutive weekends between the sides.
A victory for the All Blacks in Auckland could improve their rating points by a few tenths, although this could still leave them trailing a victorious South Africa by just over a single point – or leading by almost a point if Wales leave Pretoria having squared the series.
If Warren Gatland’s side can bounce back from the heavy loss in Bloemfontein to record a first victory on South African soil then they can potentially narrow the gap to England – the highest ranked southern hemisphere nation – above them in fifth to less than two tenths.
There are two other Tests on Saturday which could affect the top 10 of the rankings with Australia playing their first match under new coach Robbie Deans against Ireland in Melbourne and Argentina playing a second Test with Scotland, this time in Buenos Aires.
Victories for Argentina and Australia – who are ranked third and fourth – are unlikely to alter the rankings or rating points of either side given the difference in ranking and rating points between the two sides with Scotland 10th and Ireland eighth.
However were the touring sides to triumph then Scotland could climb one place at Fiji’s expense – the islanders play New Zealand Maori in the IRB Pacific Nations Cup on Saturday which will not be eligible for the rankings, while the Irish could narrow the gap to France above them to half a point.
A loss for Australia could see them drop below England by a couple of hundredths, but were England to also beat the All Blacks five years to the day since only their second ever win on New Zealand soil then they would also close in on Argentina.
Plenty at stake in Top 20
With the IRB Nations Cup and IRB Pacific Nations Cup also taking place this weekend, a number of changes could also occur in the top 20 with Tonga, Japan, Georgia, Romania, Russia and Uruguay all in action over the weekend.
The only Pacific Nations Cup encounter to have the potential to impact the rankings is Tonga’s visit to the Yurtec Stadium in Sendai to tackle a Japanese side who beat them 20-17 in the 2007 competition.
Tonga climbed one place to their highest ever position of 12th as a result of Samoa’s loss to Fiji in the same competition last weekend, but while a win would half the deficit to Italy above them, a defeat should see them swap places once more with the Samoans.
In that instance Japan could also reach a new high with a one place climb to 15th, although they could find themselves falling a place if they lose and 18th ranked Russia were to beat host nation Romania in their Nations Cup encounter on Sunday in Bucharest.
Romania have already beaten Uruguay, who are ranked three places below them at 20th, on the opening day of the IRB Nations Cup on Tuesday, but the second match day pits them against lower ranked opposition again in Russia - a side they have lost their last three meetings with.
Fourteenth ranked Georgia will be in the same position as Romania as they also face Uruguay on Sunday, a side they have never beaten in two previous meetings, one of them at Rugby World Cup 2003 and the other in October 2004.
Another defeat would result in a rating points fall, but Georgia may hold on to 14th as they have a two-point lead over Canada beneath them, although Uruguay could rise two places. By contrast a win for Georgia should reduce the deficit to Tonga and Samoa above them.
RWC 2011 qualifiers continue
Meanwhile away from Europe and the Pacific, Division II of the Asian Five Nations kicked off on Wednesday with Malaysia overcoming Pakistan 30-5 and host nation Thailand beating India 30-22 – the closest ever encounter between the two sides in Bangkok.
Thailand’s win could see them climb above Guyana into 64th, although that will depend on how they fare against Malaysia in the final on Sunday, a result which sees the winner promoted to Division I for next year and keeps alive their hopes of Rugby World Cup 2011 qualification. Malaysia are currently ranked 14 places below Thailand, so a victory for them should witness a change in both sides’ positions.
The qualification process for Rugby World Cup 2011 also continues in Africa with the first round of pool matches in the Africa Cup pitting Namibia against Senegal in Pool A, Zambia against Morocco in Pool B, Cameroon against Tunisia in Pool C and finally Botswana against Uganda in Pool D.
If the four away sides – and also higher ranked sides – win then there is likely to be no change to the rankings of any of the sides, although with Namibia (26), Morocco (28), Uganda (31) and Tunisia (32) ranked so closely then there could be changes if a few upsets are caused.
For example were Uganda to lose in Botswana then they could drop by as many as eight positions with Botswana potentially climbing 10 places to 64th. But were Tunisia to suffer defeat then they could fall six or seven places and Cameroon rocket up eight or nine places to 68th.
A loss for Namibia is likely to only result in a positional swap with Belgium beneath them – allowing Senegal to climb potentially eight places to 58th – while a defeat for Morocco should prove more costly with a drop to 35th a possibility with Zambia’s climbing to around 62nd.
The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time.
IRB World Rankings 09 June 2008
1(1) RSA
2(2) NZL
3(3) ARG
4(4) AUS
5(5) ENG
6(6) WAL
7(7) FRA
8(8) IRE
9(9) FJI
10(10) SCO
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Was the wait worth it - Ya betta baby 
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