Force, Hurricanes, Reds & Lions hold keys to the finals

[gustafsl]

As the table stands now it appears the Crusaders and Sharks are going to be 1 and 2. That leaves two spots open to be decided by: Stormers, Blues, Chiefs, Force, Warratahs and Hurricanes. I've had a good look at the rest of the schedule and it is going to be rather interesting right into the final week. Here are the remaining games:

Blues - Brumbies, Crusaders, Reds, Highlanders, Hurricanes
Chiefs - Crusaders, Reds, Force, Lions, Sharks
Force - Warratahs, Reds, Cheifs, Hurricanes, Brumbies
Warratahs - Force, Lions, Sharks, Bulls, Stormers, Reds
Hurricanes - Bulls, Stormers, Cheetahs, Lions, Force, Blues
Stormers - Cheetahs, Hurricanes, Highlanders, Brumbies, Warratahs, Lions

I think the Stormers have the inside track to one of the spots. Five of their games are at home and the one road game is against the Lions. They could go 6 from 6. But having said that they are 5 points behind the other teams, so one loss would seriously hurt their chances.

The Chiefs have to play the Crusaders, plus they play on the road the last three games including against the Sharks. It is going to be real tough for them to get more than 2 wins.

The Warratahs also have a tough schedule. They have to play the Sharks (in Sydney though) and have the last three on the road, (2 in SA). If the Bulls get their act together it could be tough for the Tahs to get 3 wins from 6.

The Blues have a good schedule, even if they lose to the Crusaders they still look like beating the Brumbies, Reds and Highlanders. And their other game is at home to Hurricanes.

Hurricanes have tough schedule, next 3 in SA and Force, Blues at the end of the year.

Force are in an interesting position. They have games against three of the teams they are competing against for the final two spots. So if they win the games it puts them in great position, but if they lose a couple it's season over.

If most games go to plan based on current form and the Stormers get 6 from 6 then the key games (at least for the Force) will be: Hurricanes vs Force and Hurricanes vs Blues. We need to beat the Hurricanes but have the Hurricanes beat the Blues. If the Hurricanes don't beat them and the Blues go 4W and 1L, the Force will probably need 5 from 5 to get the last spot.

Of course, the whole thing changes the second there is an upset. An interesting note is that the Reds and Lions each play 4 of the these teams. Look for them to play spoiler over the next few weeks.

[James]

You can never tell whats going to happen in this comp but I'd say the Crusaders are a certainty and the Stormers look very promising. The Sharks are about 4 points adrift of the Chiefs and the Force though and still have to play the Waratahs, Crusaders and Chiefs so I wouldn't count them as home and dry yet. Between the Hurricanes, Force, Waratahs, Blues and Chiefs it'll come down to who wins the least and I figure every one of them can afford one loss and still make it.

Ignoring what happens with the Force it has to be somewhat likely that the Blues would lose to the Crusaders and Hurricanes, the Chiefs to the Crusaders and Sharks, the Tahs to any combination of the Sharks, Bulls and Stormers, and finally the Hurricanes to the Bulls and Stormers.

Very tied up.