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Breakaway comp on the cards
By Bret Harris
December 08, 2007
THE decision by an IRB conference in England last week not to create a global season has virtually invited the establishment of a breakaway world competition.
Rebel forces went close to signing up the majority of the world's best players when the game went professional 12 years ago. The decision at the conference in Woking has placed the two hemispheres on a collision course that could split the code.
The preservation of the status quo reconfirmed the power of northern hemisphere rugby over the southern hemisphere.
The southern hemisphere nations, including Australia, argued for a single international window in September/October/November to replace the existing windows in June (south) and November (north), but this was rejected.
There is a fundamental difference between northern and southern hemisphere rugby, which is the root cause of the game's global problems.
In the northern hemisphere privately owned clubs in England and France are the main employers of leading players, while in the southern hemisphere the game is centred on states or provinces, which are affiliated with national unions.
The club versus country disputes that have bedevilled European rugby are now afflicting the world and could get worse.
The global season concept was rejected primarily because it would affect badly the powerful European clubs, particularly in England and France.
The game is booming there, with further increases in brodcasting rights, sponsorship and gate-takings expected to follow a commercially successful World Cup in France.
But rugby is facing a potential crisis in the southern hemisphere.
The greatest problem is European teams sending weakened squads on their tours down under.
In a financial report prepared by Deloitte for the IRB conference was the chilling prediction that the value of SANZAR's broadcasting rights would be eroded by up to 50 per cent if the northern hemisphere continued to send weakened teams.
The ARU has placed much faith in a commitment by the English and French clubs to finish their competitions by May 31, allowing their players to tour the southern hemisphere in June with their national teams.
While this sounds good in theory, it does not guarantee the Europeans will send their strongest teams.
European players have negotiated a minimum 10-week rest and pre-conditioning period and the only available space in the calendar for that is in June-August.
The high rate of injury in the physically demanding European season will inevitably result in leading players taking the summer off to rest and rehabilitate.
The players are too valuable a commodity for the clubs to risk.
Even if the Europeans select reasonably strong squads for their southern tours next year, you can be assured the quality of their teams will become progressively weaker in the approach to the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand.
If the northern hemisphere continues to send weakened teams to the south, then clearly the game on this side of the world is going to decline with a significant fall in income streams from TV, sponsorship and gate takings.
This would result in the acceleration of the trend that has seen southern hemisphere players migrating to the rich northern hemisphere clubs.
In the past players have only moved north if they could not make their national team or if they were at the end of their international careers.
But South Africans and New Zealanders are starting to join European clubs at the peak of their careers, forgoing the national jersey for much greater income. It is only a matter of time before Australians join them.
The loss of marquee players such as Daniel Carter, Matt Giteau and Bryan Habana would have a devastating effect on the Super 14 and Tri-Nations.
A mass exodus of leading southern players would also force Australia and New Zealand to review their policy of not selecting offshore players for the World Cup, which would further dilute the quality of Super 14 and Tri-Nations rugby.
European clubs have refused to release Pacific islanders for national duties, leading to the natural extension that they could decide to take the same harsh line on Australians, New Zealanders and South Africans.
One of the major issues facing SANZAR is the expansion of Super rugby and Tri-Nations.
A global season with one international window would have given SANZAR the opportunity to expand its competitions.
But under the existing international calendar, SANZAR has little room to move.
There is a push for the invisible team of world rugby, Argentina, to play in an expanded Four Nations tournament, but this would require overcoming financial and logistical hurdles.
A single international window would have allowed the Super 14 to be played beyond May by adding teams or playing two rounds, something Australia and New Zealand may be forced to do anyway if South Africa decides to join an expanded Seven Nations in Europe.
If they cannot beat them, the southern hemisphere may have to join them by moving their season to summer.
English rugby league switched from winter to summer.
While it is hotter in Australia than it is in England, the Super 14 already kicks off in February. If you can play in February, why not December and January?
A summer season in the south would help to bring the two hemispheres into alignment and create a global season.
The most radical solution is to establish a rebel competition.
When the game went professional in 1995 the Kerry Packer-backed World Rugby Corp went within a whisker of emulating World Series Cricket.
Former Wallabies prop Ross Turnbull, acting for Packer, claimed to have signed 500 of the world's leading players.
The scheme failed when the world champion Springboks decided en masse to stay with the establishment, which was supported by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation, part owner of this website.
The key question is what kind of product will SANZAR be able to put on the table when broadcasting rights with News are renegotiated in two years' time?
If the product is severely damaged by weakened northern hemisphere teams, a mass exodus of players to Europe and the rendering of Test matches to football-style friendlies, then southern hemisphere officials may have no option but to take drastic action.
A breakaway competition would have to be led by someone with drive, ambition and vision. A savvy operator who could convince a media baron, or barons, to back a breakaway competition.
The media baron could cut out the middle-men, the national unions, and contract the players directly to play in a global Test series or club competition or both.
What did John O'Neill say about owning the players again?
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