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All Blacks choke a formula change
Bret Harris | November 05, 2007 (taken off the Australian)
THE perception that the All Blacks choked in their World Cup quarter-final loss to France last month has been supported by a statistical analysis of the tournament by the IRB.
The review, headed by former referee Corris Thomas, showed the All Blacks' successful formula in the lead-up to the match disappeared under the pressure of a sudden-death match.
One key statistic demonstrated the point that the All Blacks abandoned their expansive approach and adopted safety-first tactics - the creation of 165 rucks in their loss to France.
This was almost four times as many as the All Blacks created in their 47-3 win against France in November last year; it was around 100 more than a normal New Zealand game; was around 50 per cent higher than the next highest in the tournament and is almost certainly the highest figure ever seen in an international match.
"It was at a scale that New Zealand had never remotely experienced before with an often seen expansive approach being replaced by forward attrition," the review says. "The successful formula of recent years had been abandoned for some reason and New Zealand found themselves out of the competition."
The All Blacks were the favourite to win the World Cup after several years of outstanding form. They had pursued a clearly identified approach, which saw all of their players as distributors of the ball as opposed to the forwards being providers and just the backs distributors.
As a result, the All Blacks scored many tries from all parts of the field and from all sources of possession.
"There is a risk in the 15-man distribution approach or at least there is a perceived risk," the review says. "Passing from all parts of the pitch requires a solid platform as well as skill and pace. It also requires confidence, since it is thought to heighten the risk of losing possession when compared to a tight kicking and rucking game. Successful as the New Zealand approach had been, the one question that was critical therefore was whether an expansive approach would stand up under the pressure of a winner take all knock-out competition.
"It did not."
The same could be said of France, when Les Bleus lost to England in the semi-final.
"When they beat England, their semi-final opponent, by 22 points to nine, only a month or so before the tournament started, they kicked the ball just 19 times," the review says.
"In the semi-final however, against the same opponents, they kicked the ball 46 times and lost.
"Again, the perceived safety of kicking into the opponent's half outweighed a possible alternative strategy that could have resulted in a different outcome."
Significantly, South Africa, winner of the World Cup, did not deviate from its style of rugby.
"Their game was based on a strong set piece, an aggressive defence and an ability to turn transgressions into points," the review says. "In RWC 2007 it proved highly successful.
"Their own lineout was as successful as any, they managed more lineout steals than any other team, and had an effective scrum.
"Securing possession was not seen as the ultimate objective - pressure was the priority - and their kick at goal rate was at the satisfactory 75 per cent mark. In addition, excluding the final where no tries were scored, they scored tries at a consistent level throughout the tournament."
South Africa's 15-6 win against England in the tryless final highlighted that the World Cup was dominated by conservative rugby, particularly in the finals.
"While all internationals produce around 55 kicks per game, this figure was dwarfed at the knock-out stages of RWC 2007," the review says. "The final produced 91 kicks."
Attempted drop goals also reflected the difficulty in scoring tries at the latter stages of the tournament. "As the tournament progressed, so drop goals were attempted far more frequently," the review says. "Successes, however, were few and far between.
"Of the 29 attempted drop goals at the knock-out stage only two were successful, a success rate of just 7 per cent compared to the more usual 25 to 30 per cent.
"What such attempts did however was confirm the view that tries are difficult to find at RWC."
But surprise quarter-finalist Fiji showed that creativeness did not have to come second to risk aversion in order to succeed.
"Based on an analysis of set piece play, Fiji should have perished far earlier and far more comprehensively," the review says. "They were the least successful of all 20 teams at the lineout. They were also the least successful at maintaining possession at the scrum.
"What they did, however, was attempt to play in the way they knew best and what they were best at. In their matches against Wales and South Africa, they made just 19 kicks in each game while outpassing their opponents.
"They also scored six tries in what proved to be a hugely successful approach. Perhaps a team's approach to matches outside RWC can be replicated at the tournament if the fear of losing can be overcome and it can concentrate on what it does best."
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Originally Posted by Flamethrower
Brother Gallagher I hear you 
