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Robbie Deans has finally shown his true colours and they are as black as the jersey he wore so proudly. Dropping Nathan Sharpe? Preposterous! Having Saia Faingaa on the bench against arguably the best scrum in the world? Outrageous! Persisting with Ben Alexander as a tighthead prop? Abominable! Robbie is evil. The candle of faith has truly burnt down to the nub. What do we have to show for the past 4 years? A 55% win ratio. Can Robbie take his coaching prowess from Super Rugby level to International level or is he the Mark Chisholm of coaching? We can’t keep putting off his lack of results: The future is now. Robbie is going to have to roll out some magic in Auckland over the weekend.
How are they travelling?
Both the Wallabies and the All Blacks have enjoyed comfortable wins over the Boks ‘B’ in the last few weeks. You can’t read a whole lot out of a clash against a substandard opposition, but you would have to be a bit concerned by the way the Wallabies let through two late tries while the All Blacks put on the after burners and scored two of their own. Another point of interest is that, where the Wallabies have named an unchanged starting line-up to take on New Zealand, the Kiwis have made no less than 7 changes to their starting side.
Going back another game, it’s still hard to get over the Wallabies’ monumental loss to the Samoans. You can only hope that this has got rid of our typical complacency and overconfidence. New Zealand, on the other hand, comfortably put the sword to the flying Fijians, although were fairly sloppy in their first test of the season.
The Key Match-Ups
Now the media will go like flies on a big old pile of pooh to the clashes of Dave Pocock vs Richie McCaw and Dan Carter vs Quade Cooper, and who could blame them? Every year we have talked about how we think Pocock has leap-frogged McCaw but it will take a tour de from Pocock to put that beyond doubt. Meanwhile, Cooper has been the victor in the last three games between himself and Carter. We know he isn’t the all round player that Carter is, but has Ewen McDumbledore taught him enough magic to marshal the Wallabies to victory?
There is a stark contrast between the two back threes with New Zealand opting for power as a foil for the finesse of the Wallaby outside backs, especially when Digby Ioane is defending at 10. Watch out for Gear and Sivivatu testing out the defence of Beale, Cooper and O’Connor. Yet the really interesting selections in the backline are in the centres with the selected four feeling the heat around the corner from all comers. Almost 12 months ago Adam Ashley-Cooper and Conrad Smith were arguably the best two outside centres in world rugby but their positions are now under much greater scrutiny. The rise of a number of young prospects, such as Robbie Fruean, has Smith under pressure while Adam Ashley-Cooper had an indifferent year of Super Rugby. Closer in, there is contention over whether the Wallabies should play a ball player or a ball runner at 12 and then who should fill that role. Robbie seems keen on Pat McCabe and he certainly hasn’t made any blunders thus far. For the ABs, Ma’a Nonu has also had a bad season of Super Rugby and it is a surprise to see him start. His discipline is also an issue. Expect a no-holds-barred slug out between these four as they angle to nail down their spots for the big event in September.
Definitely the most telling match up, as is usually the case with the Wallabies, will be the tussle between the two front rows. Franks and Crockett formed part of the Crusaders front row that minced the championship-winning Reds’ scrum and were never outpointed through the season. Thankfully, the Wallabies won’t be playing with the Reds’ front row. The pressure will be palpable nonetheless. It could even reach mammoth proportions if Squeaky Moore takes a breather for Saia Faingaa. The latter’s lack of scrum prowess could cost the Wallabies the game and it is hard to fathom why a better impact hooker like Nathan Charles or James Hanson wasn’t selected.
Players to Watch out for...
It was about this time last year that Ben McCalman stamped his foot on international rugby with a solid Tri-Nations series. Highlights for McCalman included setting up tries against both the Blacks and the Boks and generally throwing his body around with wanton disregard. McCalman has been fairly quiet since then and risks losing his place to either Wycliff Palu or Radike Samo if he doesn’t return to form. McCalman is a great all rounder, but without Sharpe in the side he will need to knock his ball running up a notch and start punching a little bit above his weight. I’m expecting a big game from McCalman- a return to form with a mighty roar. I’d even bank on him being the game’s first try-scorer.
It seems an odd choice that chubber Weepu is the starting 9 for the ABs this game. Last I saw of him he was out of shape and out of form. While Ellis may not be a lot better, he at least forms an 8-9-10 Crusader axis. Perhaps Henry wants more of a playmaking 9 given the absence of ball players outside of Carter. Who knows? Either way, keep an eye on him; watch as Billy Genia bursts his way past on the way to the try line!
Predicted Result:
A fair number of people on this forum weren’t old enough to remember the last time the Wallabies won against New Zealand at Eden Park; twenty five years is a long time. Fingers crossed this won’t be the only time we play the All Blacks at Eden Park this year either, and that second one would be the one we most definitely would want to win. So if you haven’t won somewhere in donkeys years, what are the chances of breaking that hoodoo twice in one year? I’d fancy they’d be pretty low. We come into this one as major underdogs and it is hard to see us taking down New Zealand in our present somewhat undercooked state. I’d wager on the Kiwis taking this one by 13, but I’ll bet it will be the only victory they have over us in Auckland this year.
The Teams
Wallabies: 15. Kurtley Beale, 14. James O'Connor, 13. Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12. Pat McCabe, 11. Digby Ioane, 10. Quade Cooper, 9. Will Genia, 8. Ben McCalman, 7. David Pocock, 6. Rocky Elsom (c), 5. James Horwill, 4. Rob Simmons, 3. Ben Alexander, 2. Stephen Moore, 1. Sekope Kepu. Reserves: 16. Saia Faingaa, 17. Pekahou Cowan, 18. Dan Vickerman, 19. Scott Higginbotham, 20. Luke Burgess, 21. Anthony Faingaa, 22. Lachie Turner
New Zealand: 15. Mils Muliaina, 14. Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13. Conrad Smith, 12. Ma'a Nonu, 11. Hosea Gear, 10. Daniel Carter, 9. Piri Weepu, 8. Kieran Read, 7. Richie McCaw(c), 6. Jerome Kaino , 5. Ali Williams, 4. Brad Thorn, 3. Owen Franks, 2. Keven Mealamu, 1. Wyatt Crockett. Reserves: 16. Andrew Hore, 17. Ben Franks, 18. Samuel Whitelock, 19. Adam Thomson, 20. Andy Ellis, 21. Colin Slade, 22. Sonny Bill Williams.