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Pacific Island Round was always going to make for a massive final weekend of the Buildcorp NRC, but then we realised that three of the four games will have a bearing on the finals series, with six teams still able to make the top four.
It's time to get the calculator out and start doing the sums.
Here are the equations for the six teams still in contention.
1st - NSW Country Eagles: 24 competition points; five wins, one loss
The Eagles cannot finish lower than second, and a win over the Western Sydney Rams on Saturday will see them finish first and claim hosting rights for the 2016 Finals series.
As an aside, a win over the Rams would also see them crowned the 2016 holders of the Horan-Little Shield, joining Brisbane City (2015) and Melbourne Rising (2014) as previous holders.
2nd – Sydney Rays: 23 points; five wins, one loss
The Rays can finish first on the table, if:
- They beat Melbourne on Sunday, AND
- NSW Country lose to Western Sydney the day before.
A win over Melbourne will ensure they host a semi-final the following weekend.
3rd – Perth Spirit: 18 points; four wins, two losses
The Spirit could just sneak into second place, if:
- They beat Uni of Canberra Vikings on Saturday with a bonus point AND a winning margin of 45 points or more, AND
- Sydney Rays lose to Melbourne on Sunday with no losing bonus point.
A win over Canberra by any margin will lock in a top four finish.
Being five competition points behind already, Perth need to win big in order to finish with a better points differential that the Rays – on the assumption that the Rays take no points out of their game in Melbourne.
It’s hard to know what’s more unlikely about the Perth equation: Canberra losing a second consecutive match by more than forty, or the Rays taking no points out of their game in Melbourne.
Should Melbourne beat the Rays, Perth could also stay in the four if:
- They take a losing point out of a loss to Canberra, OR
- They lose to Canberra without a bonus point by fewer than 51 points.
4th – Melbourne Rising: 15 points; three wins, three losses
The Rising can’t finish any higher than third, but can only do that if:
- Perth lose to Canberra on Saturday, AND
- The Rising beat Sydney Rays on Sunday.
Regardless of what Perth do on Saturday, the Rising will secure a top four finish with a win.
Melbourne can also hold onto fourth spot if Perth beat Canberra, and if the Rising lose to the Rays.
If Canberra lose with a bonus point, Melbourne would still hold a points differential advantage.
5th – Uni of Canberra Vikings: 14 points; three wins, three losses
The sweating on other results takes hold now, and it starts with the Vikings who cannot make the top four with anything less than a win over Perth on Saturday.
The Vikings can finish fourth if:
- They beat Perth on Saturday, AND
- Sydney beat Melbourne on Sunday
Interestingly, third place is not out of their reach, but that would involve getting ahead of Perth by either a bonus point or superior points differential. Currently, that margin is 50 points in Perth’s favour, and regardless, would still require the Rays to beat Melbourne.
6th – Western Sydney Rams: 12 points; two wins, four losses
Now it really starts getting tricky, because there are several routes this can happen, although central to any of these route is one unequivocal foundation:
- The Rams must beat NSW Country on Saturday.
If they can beat Country, then bonus points enter the equation and the abacus starts straining.
If the Rams win with a bonus point, they can finish fourth if:
- Perth beat Canberra, AND
- Sydney beat Melbourne.
If the Rams beat Country without a bonus point, they can still finish fourth if:
- Perth beat Canberra, AND
- Sydney beat Melbourne, and with Melbourne not gaining a losing bonus point
If the Rams beat Country with or without a bonus point, and either Canberra or Melbourne win, then the Rams would miss the top four.
Also, a win over Country would also see Western Sydney crowned the 2016 Horan-Little Shield holders.
It’s enough to give you a headache, but what a huge final weekend of Buildcorp NRC rugby we’ve got coming up!
NRC ROUND 7 FIXTURE
Saturday October 8, 1pm AEDT - Western Sydney Rams vs NSW Country Eagles
Saturday October 8, 3pm AEDT - UC Vikings vs Perth Spirit
Sunday October 9, 1pm AEDT - Melbourne Rising vs Sydney Rays
Sunday October 9, 3pm AEDT - Brisbane City vs Queensland Country
And the Final will be played and televised straight after Bledisloe 3 on 22 October 2016![]()
80 Minutes, 15 Positions, No Protection, Wanna Ruck?
Ruck Me, Maul Me, Make Me Scrum!
Education is Important, but Rugby is Importanter!
1st Eagles
2nd Rays
3rd Spirit
4th Rising
is how i think it will finish. Eagles will be back to full strength and will beat the Rams. The Rays at home should beat the up and down Rising. Perth should be too good for the inconsistent Vikings.
Will probably be in Dubbo!
80 Minutes, 15 Positions, No Protection, Wanna Ruck?
Ruck Me, Maul Me, Make Me Scrum!
Education is Important, but Rugby is Importanter!
Lance Returns for Canberra Clash
By Fraser Smith
Thu 6th October 16
The Perth Spirit will be boosted by the return of star flyhalf Jono Lance for Saturday’s crucial Buildcorp National Rugby Championship (NRC) clash with the UC Vikings in Canberra.
In further changes to the side, young gun Ross Haylett-Petty shifts to his favoured position at blindside flanker while dynamic Cottesloe winger Eric Vasukicakau will start on the left wing after being rested last round.
Sitting third on the ladder the men from the west can secure a semi-finals position with a victory at Viking Park and Head Coach Dwayne Nestor says the Spirit will have to do the simple things right to get the result.
“The main thing is that we need to make sure our defence is solid and we can maintain pressure on them,” he said. “We are confident in our attack and that we will score enough points to win if we defend well.”
Nestor says the Viking’s 44-point loss to the Sydney Rays won’t feature in his side’s thinking heading into the match.
“We won’t be taking any notice of their result last week. They have picked a quality side and we know they will be motivated to win. It is going to be a big challenge for us.”
In the front row, Pek Cowan will link up with skipper Heath Tessmann while Jermaine Ainsley comes in at tighthead for his first start since Round One.
In the second row, Palmyra and Future Force Foundation product Onehunga Havili has been recalled to the starting side to link up with Cottesloe’s Kieran Stringer.
In the halves, Ian Prior moves back to scrumhalf with Lance to spark the Spirit attack at first receiver.
Ben Tapuai and Bill Meakes will look to take on the Viking’s defence and create scoring opportunities after strong performances in the centres last weekend.
Rounding out the starting side, Eric Vasukicakau and Marcel Brache will man the wings with Palmyra’s Manihera Eden again given the nod at fullback.
In the reserves, Shambeckler Vui and Ryan Louwrens will look to break the game open when called upon while Semisi Masirewa will be keen to keep his strong form rolling after scoring a try in his Buildcorp NRC debut last weekend.
The Spirit kick-off in Canberra at 12:00PM AWST with the match to be live streamed HERE.
Buildcorp NRC – Round Seven
UC Vikings vs Perth Spirit
Saturday, 8 October
Viking Park, Canberra
Kick-off: 12:00PM AWST
Live Stream: http://bit.ly/NRC-Live
1 PEK COWAN
2 HEATH TESSMANN
3 JERMAINE AINSLEY
4 KIERAN STRINGER
5 ONEHUNGA HAVILLI
6 ROSS HAYLETT-PETTY
7 RICHARD HARDWICK
8 BRYNARD STANDER
9 IAN PRIOR
10 JONO LANCE
11 ERIC VASUKICAKAU
12 BEN TAPUAI
13 BILLY MEAKES
14 MARCEL BRACHE
15 MANIHERA EDEN
16 ANARU RANGI
17 LAIONE MULIKIHAAMEA
18 SHAMBECKLER VUI
19 GRAYSON KNAPP
20 MICHAEL RURU
21 RYAN LOUWRENS
22 AJ ALATIMU
23 SEMISI MASIREWA
https://www.westernforce.com.au/arti...canberra-clash
80 Minutes, 15 Positions, No Protection, Wanna Ruck?
Ruck Me, Maul Me, Make Me Scrum!
Education is Important, but Rugby is Importanter!
What has happened to Kane Koteka? I know he was concussed a couple weeks back! Any info?
I'm not sure lock is the best position for Havili. It's true that both Keiran and RHP are a bit light as locks, so Havili provides a bit more bulk in the scrum, and at least with RHP at 6 we've two tall timbers for the line-out, but we might be making the same error as we did with Mafi - getting him to work in the scrum lessens his impact around the pitch.
In the absence of McCalman, I'd put Keiran and RHP at 4 & 5, Havili at 8 and Stander at 6.
Maybe Wessels sees RHP as a long-term 6 with Coleman, Matwijow, Phillips & Stringer as the locks
Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon
Why 4 backs on the bench?
Smoke me a kipper, I'll be back for breakfast.
Might be looking to expose the potential weakness of the Vikings backline and attack everything.
We must work hard at the breakdown and continually get their forwards moving backwards
Everyone else is either injured or unavailable so there is an entire front row on the bench with either Te Rangi or Vui able to cover loose forwards as well as Knapp covering lock. Buggered if I know what will happen if 2 locks go down injured. Eric Vasukicakau can also play as a loosie.
Wests Scarborough 1st Grade juggernaut has played finals rugby each and every year since its inception and continues this remarkable feat yet again this season and unbelievably it's still rolling on and as an added little circle jerk for the masses Wests actually hold the record for the current longest unbroken finals record.
LOOKING AHEAD – PERTH SPIRIT V UC VIKINGS
By Fraser Smith on Fri 7th October 16 in NRC
The Perth Spirit’s Buildcorp National Rugby Championship (NRC) finals hopes are truly on the line this weekend, when they face the UC Viking’s on the road in the competition’s final round.
Last weekend Dwayne Nestor’s men put on a clinic against Brisbane City, piling on the tries in the second frame after a tightly contested first half to earn a 38-point victory. A win over Canberra, no matter the score, will lock in a top four finish. A second-place finish is also on the cards, but will require a monstrous winning margin and the favour of other results.
Perth Spirit head coach Dwayne Nestor said it will be all about the fundamentals this weekend, and hopes they can continue their strong defensive form of the previous rounds to push them over the line.
Last weekend the Spirit crossed the line multiple times through the forward pack, with the rolling maul being their weapon of choice. They were also able to chalk up another six-pointer through a pushover try and will be hoping to continue this outstanding set-piece form.
The fifth placed Canberra Viking’s need nothing less than a win after their Round Seven loss to the Sydney Rays, and will now ironically be relying on the second-placed Rays to beat the fourth-placed Melbourne Rising for a guaranteed top four finish.
Last week was a disappointing result for the Viking’s, but they have added 87 caps of international experience plus additional Super Rugby experience to their forward pack alone. Wallaby prop Ben Alexander joins the front row with fellow capped Wallaby Josh-Rea who will start at hooker and has scored three tries in his last four NRC matches with the Vikings. Sam Carter brings his Wallaby experience to partner with Tom Staniforth in the second row and they will be surrounded by a solid backrow including captain Jared Butler at No. 8.
With two experienced forward packs, a hard-fought back-and-forth affair is inevitable, but the result will likely be determined in the backs; which brings you this week’s Looking Ahead match-ups.
Joe Powell vs. Ian Prior:
Touted as one of the next big things in Australian rugby, Joe Powell’s evolution through the Brumbies system has seen him earn 11 Brumbies caps and 15 NRC caps since 2014. A natural play-maker with a swift pass from the base of the breakdown, Powell also works hard on the defensive end having landed 34 tackles accounting for an 80% completion rate in the 2016 NRC season.
He has been the lynchpin of the Viking’s backline play in 2016k, leading his team’s attack with the help of his forward pack to create quick plays off the breakdown. He will be a player to look out for this weekend as he faces off against an experienced Super Rugby head in veteran Perth Spirit scrumhalf Ian Prior.
The ever-reliable Prior has slipped into a utility role for the Perth Spirit, having played in the nine, 10 and 12 jersey. Last weekend Prior put on a superb display filling in for Jono Lance at fly-half, setting up several attacking chances.
He worked well with fellow backs Bill Meakes and Ben Tapuai, and they will be hoping to continue their chemistry to create solid opportunities against a Viking’s defence that will be out to redeem themselves after giving up nearly 60-points last week.
Jordan Jackson-Hope vs. Ben Tapuai:
Regarded as a potential Wallabies prospect down the line, Jackson-Hope has burst onto the scene as a Brumbies prospect after putting up several strong performances in 2016. The crafty inside centre assisted a try with his first touch of the ball at Super Rugby level and has shown no signs of slowing down making 44 carries for 235 metres this NRC. He was inspiring in last weekend’s loss to the Sydney Rays, and was a shining light among a stagnant Vikings backline. His maturity and poise will be put to the test this weekend when he faces capped Wallaby Ben Tapuai, and the youngster will relish the chance to face an experienced player in a must-win situation.
The dynamic Tapuai will go out with a point to prove as he hopes to both lift his Spirit side to a finals berth, but also prove he is worthy of a starting role at the Western Force in 2017 as the competition draws to a close. He has a big challenge on his hands facing young-gun Jackson-Hope, but the powerful and skilful ball runner should be able to use his experience and work through the challenge at hand. He will be hoping for the forward pack to set up a number of set piece opportunities so he can continue his strong form which has seen him run for 191 metres off 35 carries.
Buildcorp NRC – Round Seven
UC Vikings vs Perth Spirit
Saturday, 8 October
Viking Park, Canberra
Kick-off: 12:00PM AWST
Live Stream: http://bit.ly/NRC-Live
With the weather back to shit again, fishing put off until Monday, I am going to spend some time watching the NRC. It might have to be with the sound muted though and in black and white because the commentators are crap and the grounds in the main are more like country paddocks.
Perth Spirit have a pretty strong team on paper I hope they turn up ready to play.
doesn't look like this match is streamed?