Originally Posted by
Sheikh
For this year's finals: three of the teams above us have played an extra game (Hurricanes, Brumbies and Sharks), so that gives us an advantage.
The remaining matches left of the top teams:
1st: Sharks (played 14, 45 points): Bye, Cheetahs (A), Stormers (A). Likely to get two wins, maybe a bonus point; 54 pts.
2nd: Waratahs (13, 43 pts): Brumbies (H), Highlanders (H), Reds (A). The Brumbies could trip them up, but likely 3 wins, with 1 bonus point; 56 pts.
3rd: Crusaders (13, 41 pts): Hurricanes (A), Blues (H), Highlanders (H). Both the Highlanders and Hurricanes are playing well, but can you bet against 3 wins for the Saders at the sharp end of the season?; 53 pts.
4th: Brumbies (14, 40 pts): Waratahs (A), Bye, Force (H). I've already given the Tah's the win in Sydney, and the match against us will be make or break for the Brumbies. Much as I'd like to give us this, for this analysis, I'm going for a Brumby win; 44 pts.
5th: Highlanders (13, 38 pts): Chiefs (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A). I've given the Tahs and Saders the wins already, so a win against the Chiefs; 42 pts.
6th: Hurricanes (14, 37 pts): Crusaders (H), Chiefs (A), Bye. 1 win; 41 pts.
7th: Force (13, 36 pts): Blues (H), Reds (H), Brumbies (A). 2 wins (remember I gave the Brumbies a win) would be tough given the Blues are improving, but NiB is becoming a fortress; 44 pts.
8th: Chiefs (13, 35): Highlanders (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A). I gave the Highlanders and Hurricanes the wins, so 1 against the Blues; 39 pts.
9th: Bulls (14, 33): Bye, Stormers (A), Rebels (H). 2 wins are possible, but they haven't been getting many bonus points; 41 pts.
10th: Blues (13, 31): Force (A), Crusaders (A), Chiefs (H). None are easy games, and I've already given the wins to teams above them; 31 pts.
11th and below - out of it.
So, the final table would be:
1st Waratahs 56
2nd Sharks 54
3rd Crusaders 53
4th Brumbies 44
5th Force 44
6th Highlanders 42
7th Bulls 41
8th Hurricanes 41
9th Chiefs 39
Therefore, the Brumbies would have to beat us to get into the finals; and if we got a losing bonus point, we'd finish above them.
The Kiwi teams will be playing each other and taking too many points of each other to all maintain their finals spots.
The Saffa teams have all played a game extra, so have a bye, giving them a disadvantage in the run-in.
I doubt the table will finish like this, but it shows how the conference in-fighting could easily develop; the Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Chiefs can't all maintain a fight for the finals, whereas with only 3 Australian teams in the hunt, and only two matches between those three, we can all remain in the top six.