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The wheels have fallen off the cart. The cart has caught fire. The straw has blown away in gale force winds. And the donkey is the new starting fly-half at the Brumbies.
What the hell is going on in Hurricane land? This season could be shaping up alongside 2004 as one of the franchise’s worst. It might be a long, long season for the Wellingtonians.
Form from 2011
While the Hurricanes season in 2011 wasn’t terrible, it wasn’t that great either. The Hurricanes’ time in the sun looks to have set with the team left empty handed after five finals appearances in seven seasons up to 2009. The last two seasons have seen the Hurricanes in the bottom half of the table in 8th and 9th place. The 2011 season was typical Hurricane fashion with little consistency between one game and the next. In fact the Hurricanes were only able to make back to back wins once in the season. Wins were tough in the NZ conference with the Hurricanes picking up just a win and a draw against the Chiefs in their 7 derby matches (the first Hurricanes/Crusaders was cancelled due to the earthquake). The low point of their season was the 42-25 demolition at the hands of the Rebels in round 6. At 17-0 after 20 minutes it looked like the Hurricanes were going add more woes to a Rebels side that had lost 53-3 the week before, but the Hurricanes became complacent and the Rebels hit back with a six try vengeance.
The Wellington franchise have 3 feeder teams in the ITM Cup: Wellington and Taranaki in the Premiership and Manawatu in the Championship. Taranaki were very impressive in the Premiership, coming third and grasping hold of the Ranfurly Shield. Although they had an extra win to eventual champions, Canterbury, they missed out on the finals through bonus points. Wellington were less impressive languishing in 6th place in the Premiership, one place off relegation. Manawatu missed out on promotion to the Premiership by a whisker having top the table in the round robin stage only to lose to Hawke’s Bay in the final.
Comings and Goings
Who is actually staying? A massive internal spat between players and the coach, Mark Hammett, has seen an exodus from the capital. Allegedly, the Hurricanes didn’t like the way Hammett was trying to turn the Hurricanes into a clone of the Crusaders. The high profile list of leaving names includes Ma’a Nonu (Blues), Andrew Hore (Highlanders), Aaron Cruden (Chiefs), Hosea Gear (Highlanders), Neemia Tialata (Bayonne) and Piri Weepu (Blues). Something of a Hurricanes old guard. Add to this the retirement of Rodney So’oialo and it is hardly recognisable as a Hurricanes team. It will be a tough group to replace with almost 200 Test caps and probably double that in Super Rugby caps. It also takes away the majority of the leadership group with Conrad Smith being touted as the new captain. As well as these guys, there have been a couple of other departures and all up 14 new faces (or newly promoted from the academy) in the side.
Neemia Tialata: Do you know the muffin man?
Mark Hammett has drawn heavily on the 2011 wider training squad to fill in the gaps in his squad with five of last year’s eight joining the main squad. He has also added former Crusaders and Chiefs prop Ben May, former Crusaders centre Tim Bateman, former Crusader and current Samoan international fly-half Tusi Pisi, former Crusader and Highlander hooker David Hall, and former Highlanders, Hurricanes and Blues scrum-half Chris Smylie. A truer group of journeymen you couldn’t find. With all the ex-Crusaders there you might think the playing group had a point.
Players to watch out for...
The 2011 Hurricanes squad had two very exciting and talented wingers in Julian Savea and Charlie Ngatai. Unfortunately for the pair, the forwards just couldn’t win the kind of quality ball they needed to shine and they looked decidedly average in the few opportunities they did get. There is no promise that the 2012 crop of forwards will do any better for the boys out wide but if they can, or if Corey Jane can orchestrate some good counter attack, we will see them fly. Check out Julian Savea on YouTube to see some of his junior highlights. Comparisons have been made between Savea and Jonah Lomu- but then again, isn’t every winger over 95kgs compared to Lomu these days?
They say the team starts and ends with the tighthead prop. Now without their first choice number 3, Neemia Tialata, the Hurricanes will look to green horn tighthead Michael Bent. He may have an odd surname for a prop; however Bent was the cornerstone of the Taranaki scrum that was 2 competition points shy of making the ITM Premiership final and you can’t blame props for not picking up bonus points (except Matt Dunning). Having made his Super Rugby debut in 2011 and picked up 5 caps through the season, Bent will be pushing hard (pardon the pun) to nail down a start with competition from a relatively unknown group of props. He might not match Tialata for size but he may prove a tougher customer in a number of other areas.
The Strengths
Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, it is hard to find too many positives to draw on for 2012. So many new faces and so much talent lost to the other franchises. That brings up two positives though I suppose. The first is that the Hurricanes might have something of an unknown factor about them. The new faces will be very eager to please and less familiar for opposing coaches to prepare for. Be sure that a gem or two will be unearthed by the season’s end. The second is that at least now Mark Hammett will have a team that actually listen to him. As fans of the Force and the Brumbies can attest, there is no point having star players if they won’t listen to the coach. The Hurricanes lacked cohesiveness in 2011 and having everyone on the same page will go a long way toward success in 2012.
But the big strength of the Hurricanes will of course be their backline. Despite only retaining two of their five RWC final starting backline, the backs still maintain a major threat. Corey Jane and Conrad Smith will lead a young but talented group of backs. They may not have depth in spades as they did last season, but they are still a talented bunch and capable enough of snatching a win behind a beaten pack.
The Weaknesses
The Hurricane forwards just played far too loosely in 2011. Work at the breakdown and defence around the fringes were particularly woeful. Where was the basher? What the Hurricanes wouldn’t have given for a Bakkies Botha or a Jerome Kaino. Long gone are Paul Tito and Jerry Collins and now too is Rodney So’oialo. The Highlanders scored two wins from two against the Hurricanes in 2011 by eliminating the Hurricanes in the forwards. Unless Hammett’s new recruits can bring something extra to the table and he can get them to work as a unit, the pack will be the place to target the Canes- mainly the tight five.
Wils...errr Gilbert! What are we going to do now? Gilbert!
It is unlikely that a team can lose half of its players and still make a credible challenge for the Super Rugby trophy. It may take a while for all the new faces to gel and a vacuum has opening up in leading the team. Last season’s captain, Andrew Hore, has left along with his likely replacement, Piri Weepu, and former captain Rodney So’oialo. Conrad Smith has taken over the reins, and a more experienced player you would struggle to find, but where is his support? Who is going to boss the pigs around?
The big worry would have to be- is the player/coach rift done and dusted? Are there players in the squad who want to follow their teammates out the door but are still under contract? Winning can usually resolve these issues but the Hurricanes will struggle to win early games, especially with their start in South Africa and then onto Perth. If there is any discontent left over, the team could unravel before it gets to play a home game.
The Prediction
No surprises that I think the Hurricanes will be absolutely dire in 2012. There is no doubt that they will prop up the NZ conference if not the whole competition. There will be an amazing game or two where the Canes come close to whipping up a half century but they will be few and far between. It’s great that they’ve filled most of their gaps with young local talent and that bodes well for success in the future, but here in the present it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a good year for rugby in Wellington. I’d peg the Hurricanes in 13th.
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