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Saturday sees the end of an era with the start of the last ever Tri-Nations series. Next year’s inclusion of Argentina will result in a bit of a shake-up of the competition and hopefully be a bit of a shot in the arm. Will Australia, South Africa and New Zealand save the best for last? South Africa says no. As exciting as another Tri-Nations series is, unfortunately it looks to be becoming a sideshow to this year’s World Cup.
How the teams are travelling:
South Africa almost didn’t! A dodgy engine on a QANTAS flight saw a return to South Africa just an hour or so into the flight. The team were put on a new flight and made it here eventually. In terms of form, it has been 9 months since the Springboks last played a test match and I doubt they will be too excited to remember those. While the Boks won 3 from 4 on tour, they lost to Scotland and their wins over Ireland and Wales were marginal. Their solitary win in last year’s Tri-Nations won’t inspire much either! There is also the disappointment of the Stormers failing to make Super Rugby final, although Saturday’s Boks team is largely a mix of the Bulls and Sharks, after being decimated by the Crusaders.
Things aren’t looking a whole heap better for Australia. Last weekend’s loss to Samoa was embarrassing and exposed a few fragilities within the Wallabies set-up. Thankfully South Africa’s wingers give up about 20-30kgs on the Samoans and we are less likely to see such a punishing defence. Hopefully our returning stars will see us lift another two or three gears against the Springboks.
How are they going to win it?
South Africa have named a good side, but far from their first choice side. If last year’s Tri-Nations is anything to go by, this shouldn’t be enough to beat the Wallabies. But after last weekend, you would have to say that anything is possible and no one should be taken for granted. Unfortunately for South Africa, Australia won’t show the same complacency they did against Samoa and they can’t rely on the Wallabies to be their own undoing. So what are the Springbok’s strengths? In Morne Steyn the Boks have arguably the best kicker at goal, and probably from hand, in world rugby. The Wallabies’ long kicking game is comparatively poor. While the Boks are without line-out lynch pin Victor Matfield, Muller and van der Merwe are impressive and could exert enormous pressure on Horwill and Simmons, who are unproven at test level. So here it is: Keep the Wallabies pinned in their own half with superior kicking and line-out dominance. Target Genia at and around the breakdown in order to frustrate him and stymie the Wallabies’ ability to run the ball out of our own half. Aplon et al to counter attack when the Wallabies resort to poor kicking. When in possession, have Ashley Johnson and Wynand Olivier run at Quade Cooper all day long. Three words: Enthusiasm, frustration, and opportunity.
This Wallabies side outclasses their South African counter parts. All it will take for the Wallabies is to prevent themselves from being drawn into the South African game plan. It was depressing the extent to which this happened against Samoa. We get hammered at the breakdown, we throw slow ball into the mercy of a 110kg rush defence and then get into an even worse position from the resulting breakdown. Why didn’t we kick for territory and pressure the line-out, where we had a clear advantage? Anyway enough of that. This South African team haven’t played many tests together, and they don’t seem to complement each other in the way that the first choice team does. They are also surprisingly lightweight in their backline. Get Quade some front foot ball and the tries will come. Our backs, in contrast to the Boks, are well balanced and very familiar with each other. If the forwards break even with those of the Boks, which they should do at the very least, this one will be ours fairly comfortably.
Players to watch out for:
Most of the Wallabies are ‘old news’- we know what we are going to get- the two exciting prospects in the team are Pat McCabe and Rob Simmons. McCabe played last weekend and was pretty good considering the situation. He was heavily involved in both attack and defence. It would be great to see what he can do with the time and space that Cooper affords him as well as playing behind a pack going forward. I’d put a $10 on McCabe to score the first try of the game. Simmons also has some test caps to his name, however he hasn’t played since last October and he has come a long way since then. But just how far? Can he bring his impressive form for the Reds into the test arena or will he be another Mark Chisholm? Is he ready for a regular start for the Wallabies? His time will come but I don’t think it is just yet, his game on Saturday will tell just how long it will be.
Hmmm. There is something a little bit unexciting about this Springboks line up. I know it sounds a bit arrogant but you don’t really see anywhere you think ‘that guy is going to wreck havoc on his opposite number’. There are three new faces in props Werner Kruger, Deon Greyling and Ashley Johnson, but short of Johnson’s meteoric rise with the Lions, not much going on there. What I find interesting is the selection of three zippers in the outside backs in Lwazi Mvovo, Bjorn Basson and Gio Aplon. I wonder what Pieter de Villiers is up to. Is he up to anything; does he even know what he is doing? Who knows. Either way, keep an eye out for them. They could be a handful on the counter attack.
The Outcome:
You have to be a bit wary with the predictions given last weekend’s game. But even then, it is hard to see this going the way of the Springboks. Or if not hard, then too damaging to even think about. It is uncommon to see Australia get embarrassed two games in a row. Usually when we put in a hopeless performance we back it up by blowing someone out of the water. I’d expect that. I’d wager on a 20 point lead going into the 60 minute mark to be eaten away a bit as the Boks claw back a late one when Deans brings out the cotton wool and empties the bench. Wallabies by 10-15 points. What do you think?
The Teams:
Wallabies: 15. Kurtley Beale 14. James O’Connor 13. Adam Ashley-Cooper 12. Pat McCabe 11. Digby Ioane 10. Quade Cooper 9. Will Genia 8. Ben McCalman 7. David Pocock 6. Rocky Elsom 5. James Horwill 4. Rob Simmons 3. Ben Alexander 2. Stephen Moore 1. Sekope Kepu
Reserves: 16. Saia Fainga’a 17. Pekahou Cowan 18. Nathan Sharpe 19. Matt Hodgson 20. Scott Higginbotham 21. Nick Phipps 22. Anthony Fainga’a
South Africa: 15. Gio Aplon 14. Bjorn Basson 13. Juan De Jongh 12. Wynand Olivier 11. Lwazi Mvovo 10. Morne Steyn 9. Ruan Pienaar 8. Ashley Johnson 7. Danie Roussouw 6. Deon Stegmann 5. Johann Muller 4. Flip van der Merwe 3. Werner Kruger 2. John Smit 1. Dean Greyling
Reserves: 16. Chiliboy Ralepelle 17. CJ van der Linde 18. Alistair Hargreaves 19. Jean Deysel 20. Charl McLeod 21. Adrian Jacobs 22. Patrick Lambie
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Originally Posted by oxleymoron
... with the media life guards... 
