Season Pre-view: Blues

Form in 2011
The NZ Conference was a happy hunting ground for the Blues in 2011 with the Aucklanders picking up 6 from 8 to finish second in the country. They also maintained the fortress quality of Eden Park with an impressive home record again with a 6 from 8 record. A closer look at this shows that the wheels well and truly fell off the cart in the final few rounds of the competition with 3 losses (Crusaders away, Chiefs home and Stormers at home) in four games scuttling their ambition for home finals. Just one of those wins would have placed them two places higher in 2nd while two wins would have landed the Blues at the top of the log. They just didn’t have the gas in the tank going into the finish line and, while comfortably beating a depleted Waratahs outfit in the ‘quarter final’, were not able to trouble the rampaging Reds in the semi finals. The Blues will also rue their international away record in 2011. The Blues can count themselves extremely lucky to have escaped Perth with a draw while two losses to the Sharks and the Reds left them with just one win outside NZ- against the Lions. If they want to be true contenders, this will have to improve.

ITM Cup results will hardly provide further hope for Blues fans. The Blues’ three teams – Northland, North Harbour (Championship) and Auckland (Premiership) - finished lower midtable in their two divisions. Given its size and number of players, you expect better from Auckland.

Comings and Goings
As with all of the New Zealand franchises, Highlanders notwithstanding, there have been some wholesale changes to the Blues line-up in 2011. Two key losses from the Blues line-up will be inside backs Stephen Brett (Toyota) and Luke McAlister (Toulouse). After some initial promise from Brett in his rookie year at the Crusaders, with Carter in the All Blacks conditioning program, he has failed to kick on and consistently perform at a high level. There will be plenty of Blues fans delighted at his departure. McAlister has also failed to impress since returning to Auckland from the Sale Sharks. He left New Zealand as one of the world’s best inside centres and offered little when he returned. His demands for an early release from his contract, upon missing All Black selection, probably left a sour taste in the mouth of fans. There is some irony too as he may have been called up ahead of Stephen Donald had he stayed and then he would have a World Cup winners medal. Gone from the outside backs are Joe Rokocoko and Jared Payne. Rokocoko has been a legend for the Blues but was a bit off the pace in his last year or two- the timing is right for Smokin’ Joe. Payne, on the other hand, was in sensational form for much of 2011 and will be a big loss the Blues. The Auckland franchise tends to have oodles of backline talent so perhaps it won’t be so bad. The Blues have also lost two of their scrumhalves- Toby Morland and Chris Smylie- as well as lock Kurtis Haiu (bone cancer).

Along with the Highlanders and Chiefs, the Blues have benefitted greatly from the implosion of the Hurricanes in 2011. Disgruntled duo, Piri Weepu and Ma’a Nonu have moved north to Auckland- much to the delight of Blues fans. The Blues went for a couple of years devoid of quality scrumhalves, to the point that Taniela Moa was starting, and now they have two in Alby Mathewson and Piri Weepu. Ma’a Nonu is a bit of a gamble with his on field and off field discipline, but at his best he is the premier inside centre in world rugby. The experience of these two will be of big value as the Blues’ two new fly-halves, Gareth Anscombe and Michael Hobbs, are fairly green and will need guidance.

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Have you seen Piri's lucky charms?

Players to watch out for...
Michael Hobbs makes a bit of an interesting story. Son of former All Black and NZRU chairman Jock Hobbs, Michael has had a colourful history of rugby. After going through age-grades in NZ, he moved to Queensland for study and joined the Reds academy. He went on to represent the Melbourne Rebels in the now defunct Australian Rugby Championship in 2007. From there he was drafted into the Blues for 2009 and moved onto the Highlanders in 2010. A serious back injury that season ruled him out of 2011 and now he has returned to the Blues for a second bite of the Super Rugby cherry in 2012. The talented 10/12 will tussle with Gareth Anscombe, and possibly Lachie Munro, for the starting 10 spot. It will be interesting to see how the 24 year old goes as he so easily could be playing for an Australian franchise if things had been a bit different. However with a father like Jock, it is hard to see him ever representing an international team other than the All Blacks.

The Strengths
Every year, and this one is no different, the Blues roll out a squad chock full of current or semi-current All Blacks. The Blues are a tighthead prop and a number 8 short of an all All Black pack. While there are slightly fewer amongst the backs, the addition of Weepu and Nonu make five along with Rene Ranger, Rudi Wulf and Isaiah Toeava. There are a handful of other players who wouldn’t look out of place in black too. All in all there are enough class players who are coming into their prime to test any team in the competition. When they show up.

The Weaknesses
That’s the big thing. When they show up. There is something wrong with the culture of the Blues. Now whether that is the kind of backroom politicking that taints the Waratahs, the player power that infests the Brumbies, or something else entirely is hard to say. But the simple fact is that the Blues never perform to the standard expected from the sum of their parts. The team completely capitulated in the final rounds of 2011. Looking at it, you can’t help but feel that to some extent it is the attitude of the players that is the problem at the Blues. You would kind of expect that in a team with Ali Williams in it. 100% pure – bogan. And how will the Blues cope with the input of Weepu and Ma’a Nonu? Mark Hammett is no fool and would not have cut Nonu loose if he did not think Nonu was a toxic influence on the team.

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Comical Ali- would you want him playing for your team?

There are a some questions over a few positions in the Blues line-up. Their line-out was something of an Achilles Heel in 2011 and doesn’t look particularly threatening. It will also be interesting to see how well Gareth Anscombe and Michael Hobbs cope. There are other options at 10, however the Blues will look to these guys first and foremost to direct the team around the park and they are young and inexperienced. Finding the right playmaker will make the difference between a successful year or another year of disappointment. Blues fans will be expecting to go one higher than last year at the very least.

The Prediction
The Blues have the team to take the competition. The added bonuses for the Blues in 2012 is that their NZ conference rivals have had some big overhauls in their squads and will be vulnerable. The Chiefs and Hurricanes basically have half a new squad. The Crusaders will be missing Carter and McCaw early on in the season. This one will be ripe for the picking. The Blues will have to improve on their form on the road and this will be tough with games against the Bulls and Stormers in the Republic. But they should rack up enough points to take the top of their pool and their backs will score enough bonus points to place the Blues in 2nd place.