Probables v Possibles: How Rugby Australia could benefit from a Wallabies trial match

Bret Harris
Tue 8 Sep 2020 03.30 AEST



A Wallabies trial game would give new coach Dave Rennie a chance to look at players, particularly younger ones. Photograph: Bianca de Marchi/EPA

In the wake of the success of New Zealand’s North versus South game in Wellington at the weekend, the idea of a similar Wallabies trial match has resurfaced. Just like the North-South concept was revived across the Tasman, Rugby Australia could bring back the Probables v Possibles trial to provide quality content for broadcasters and achieve an important high performance outcome.

The South’s thrilling 38-35 win against the North may have lacked the hyper intensity of a Crusaders-Hurricanes local derby, but it was still a high quality, highly entertaining game. All Blacks backrower Ardie Savea was so impressed with the match he called for it to be extended to a State-of-Origin style three-match fixture.

The game is steeped in New Zealand rugby history, but Wallabies Probables v Possibles clashes also once enjoyed a prominent position during the amateur era of Australian rugby. A modern-day version could be professionally packaged for television into a point of difference game, something Australian rugby is crying out for.

The Wallabies are still the main “rainmakers” in Australian rugby and Rugby Australia needs to exploit the profile of the national team as much as possible, particularly when there is so much uncertainty about the future of Super Rugby. There were reports RA considered the idea earlier in the year when the coronavirus pandemic hit revenue streams, but it was not included in the “showbag” of potential TV content provided to broadcasters.

Unlike the proposed State of the Union game between NSW and Queensland, a Probables v Possibles match would involve the best 46 players in the country going head to head for the gold jersey. The State of the Union game would exclude players who were ineligible for NSW and Queensland, narrowing the appeal of the contest.

The concept’s main flaw is that there is no geographical identification for fans such as the division of loyalties between the North and South Islands in New Zealand. But hopefully this sort of game would attract the interest of all Wallabies fans, who would be keen to see Nic White up against Tate McDermott or Taniela Tupou taking on Scott Sio.

You could argue that fans have already seen these match-ups in Super Rugby AU, but the Probables v Possibles would be a game played in near Test match conditions, played in green and gold jerseys. It may also give Wallabies coach Dave Rennie a chance to see some players he did not see enough of in Super Rugby AU, particularly young prospects.

The Super Rugby AU final will be held on Saturday week, while the Wallabies are not scheduled to play until 17 October, which means there is sufficient time to squeeze a Probables v Possibles game into the draw. The Wallabies squad would be in camp preparing for Test rugby anyway, but there is still much uncertainty about what the international schedule will look like.

Plans for the Rugby Championship to be staged in New Zealand in November and December received a setback when the Kiwis suffered a recent outbreak of Covid-19, placing the country into lockdown. And now six Argentinian players have tested positive for the virus, creating even more uncertainty about the four-team tournament.

Without the Rugby Championship, RA would be staring at a big, black hole, coming at a time when players will be expecting the restoration of their salaries after taking pay cuts to survive the financial impact of the pandemic. It may be that the only Test matches the Wallabies play this year will be Bledisloe Cup games against the All Blacks, but even that will depend on containing the coronavirus.

If this was the case, there would certainly be a powerful need for RA to provide new content for broadcasters. A contingency plan is needed and a Probables v Possibles match could help to fill any gaps in the Test schedule and also to generate revenue for a rugby economy that has been battered by the pandemic.

The deadline for broadcasters to submit bids for the television rights for 2021 to 2025 passed last Friday without any formal expressions of interest, which indicates broadcasters are either not interested or will be seeking to acquire the rights for a bargain basement price.

RA and long-term broadcast partner Fox Sports are reportedly still talking behind the scenes and the pay TV network is seeking clarification on what is being offering, particularly at the Super Rugby level. But whatever deal RA manages to strike with a broadcaster it is highly unlikely the value will be enough to sustain the professional game in Australia as we have known it.

Without a significant injection of private equity, RA will have to find new imaginative ways to leverage its broadcast rights. The Probables v Possibles is an old idea, which could be new again, just like the North-South contest in New Zealand. And if successful, such a game could become a permanent feature of Australia’s rugby calendar, the equivalent to State of Origin.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...es-trial-match