Wallabies team picked on statistics
Wallabies team picked on statistics
By Iain Payten Wallabies team picked on statistics | The Daily Telegraph
May 16, 2008 12:00am
FOR Wallabies hopefuls who do their best work in areas the numbers men don't count, keep this quote in mind: "Statistics are no substitute for judgment."
But just as nine out of 10 internet quotes prove statistics can be dismissed, unfortunately for you stats still spin the wheels of sport.
That piece of paper you see a coach or selector clutching is nearly always a stats sheet, lined with dozens of columns counting tackles, linebreaks, errors, lineout wins, crooked throws and metres gained.
While it may not be the last word, it's invariably the first.
So with Australia's Super 14 sides locked in derby matches this weekend, and Robbie Deans' first Wallabies squad to be announced on June 2, MainGame has delved into the numbers to look at the leading candidates.
Courtesy of Fox Sports Stats, the figures throw up some contentious names sure to cause debate - such as Tyrone Smith for the inside-centre spot - but generally the stats back up the names and reputations.
Twelve men picked in this Wallabies XV were in the 22 that lost to England in the 2007 World Cup quarter-final, while only Smith and Luke Burgess would make debuts.
Here is a summary, http://gotheforce.com/uploaded/271/1210902290.jpg
PROPS: Perhaps the worst position to start with in a piece based on statistics, given a prop's value is notoriously hard to measure. The Waratahs have had the most consistent Australian scrum this year, so NSW's Benn Robinson shapes as the loose head and Matt Dunning as a converted tight head. ACT prop Nic Henderson has good numbers in general play, but Robinson has been in great form in general play in recent weeks and averages almost four runs per game. Dunning has done well, having switched to tight head, and works hardest in defence with 66 tackles this year. Al Baxter and Guy Shepherdson are not far behind him.
HOOKER: Wallabies incumbent Stephen Moore again has the runs on the board. Though playing for the struggling Reds, Moore has the most runs (67), the most tackle busts (28) and linebreaks (5), and is the most accurate lineout thrower (84.8 per cent). NSW's Adam Freier and Tatafu Polota-Nau are up there, though the latter struggles with lineout accuracy (74.4 per cent).
LOCKS: Showing just how much he'll be missed in Australian rugby, Dan Vickerman is again the standout lock. Vickerman's defence and lineout work are miles ahead of his rivals. The big lock has made 168 tackles (averaging 14) - 54 more than the next best. His 62 lineout wins include a competition-best 12 steals. Skippers Nathan Sharpe (Force) and James Horwill (Reds) both have claims to bind up with Vickerman. Sharpe runs most (10 per game at 4m each) but Horwill makes more yardage and tackles more. Struck match.
BLINDSIDE BREAKAWAY: NSW's Rocky Elsom has the edge over the Force's Scott Fava, based on his superior overall game at the lineout and the breakdown. Fava runs further (54.5m per game) but Elsom busts the most tackles (3.3 per game) and linebreaks (6), defends more and is only bettered by Mitchell Chapman (25) for lineout wins (19).
OPENSIDE BREAKAWAY: Given the terrific form of Phil Waugh, for Brumbies skipper George Smith to be so statistically superior again this season is mind-blowing. Smith has 52 more runs than anyone else with 122, and leads tackle busts (23), tackles (147) and pilfers (10). Smith's ball handling is also better, although Waugh's side has been plagued with wet weather. Waugh's inspirational leadership has been noteworthy for the successful Tahs, but Smith's efforts in lifting a young side can't be denied either.
NO. 8: NSW's wrecking ball No. 8 Wycliff Palu is a no-brainer after a career-best season. Palu has made almost 11 runs per game for a gain of 57.8m a match. He's broken a staggering 46 tackles (20 more than anyone else), has the most tackles (81) and leads the Super 14 in offloads (31). His back-up is either the skilful Stephen Hoiles, who leads all the ball-handling stats, or else the hard-working Force No. 8 Richard Brown.
HALFBACK: Sam Cordingley's injuries have seen Luke Burgess shoot up the selection ladder without a close rival. The slick-passing NSW No. 9 is deadly in attack with most run metres (40 per game), tackle busts (20) and offloads (10). Patrick Phibbs and Brett Sheehan are hard-tackling alternatives.
FIVE-EIGHTH: Hard to see Matt Giteau being challenged given his experience, but Kurtley Beale's stats show he'd perhaps be third line in line after Berrick Barnes. Giteau's stats show a complete game but Beale's passing (18 offloads and 5 try assists) is actually better, and he tackles more (7.6 a game). He has also kicked most in the Super 14.
INSIDE CENTRE: In a tight field, the numbers spit out Tyrone Smith as a potential bolter. Like Tom Carter and Scott Staniforth, Smith is a hard runner (more than 50m a game) but the younger brother of George Smith adds 3.2 tackle busts a game, the most linebreaks (6) and try assists (3). Barnes could be Robbie Deans's style of 12 though as a second five-eighth, with a dominant long kicking game, comparable ball-handling stats and the most tackles (10.2 a game).
OUTSIDE CENTRE: Ryan Cross's stats are largely the best, but Stirling Mortlock's absences with injury this year throw up a cloud. Cross has done little wrong by running for 79.5m a game to Mortlock's 66.2m, but the Wallabies skipper is likely to keep his job on power at the line if nothing else. He's made 5.8 tackle busts a game in 5 games, compared with Cross's average of 2.8 in 11.
WINGERS: Drew Mitchell and Lote Tuqiri look to be the picks. Speedster Mitchell has run the furthest in the Super 14 (1085m at 90.4 a game) and has an equal share of the most linebreaks (11). He also has the most offloads (15), kick metres (1910) and tackles (45) of the Aussie flyers. Tuqiri's strong running puts him just in front of incumbent Adam Ashley-Cooper.
FULLBACK: Cameron Shepherd will duel with Mark Gerrard to step up after the loss of Chris Latham. Both are equally good with the ball in hand, but Shepherd is perhaps the leading candidate, averaging 56m a game to Gerrard's 50m when running and with a longer kicking game (40m per kick to 36m).
For the full stats spreadsheet: http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegrap...ew-super14.xls
