S14: Road to the play-offs

It's often said that fact is stranger than fiction. Just look at the Super 14 and you will see how true this is!

Fact: All 14 teams still have a chance - albeit many very remote mathematical chances - of making the play-offs.

Yes, the reality is that for the bottom-placed Lions to make the play-offs a freakish series of unrealistic results have to conspire in their favour ... and they have to win all five their remaining matches, with bonus points, to keep that 'mathematical' dream alive.

We all know that on current form the prospect of the Lions - include in this group teams like the Reds, Highlanders, Cheetahs and Bulls - winning more than one game in their remaining fixtures will constitute a remarkable turnaround of their disastrous season.

But, strange as it may seem, they can still collect enough points to finish in the top four.

And yes, I know it won't happen, but it could.

After 58 matches (64 percent of the round-robin stage completed) we have only two unbeaten teams - the Table-topping Crusaders and the Sharks in second place.

The six-time champion Crusaders have put daylight between themselves and the rest. With 38 points they are seven clear of the Sharks, who are another five ahead of the third-placed Hurricanes, who in turn edge the Waratahs (also on 26 points) on points difference.

There is a closely grouped chasing bunch - the Blues (25 points), Western Force (24), Stormers 23), Chiefs (23) and Brumbies (20). Those are the teams most likely to challenge the top four for play-off places.

There is a chasm resembling the Grand Canyon between those in single digits and the also-rans.

We look at each team's prospects with five weeks of league action remaining!

Crusaders:
Current position: 1st
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 9th
Remaining matches:
18 April: v Chiefs, away
25 April: v Blues, home
02 May: v Sharks, home
10 May: v Reds, away
17 May: v Highlanders, home

Sharks:
Current position: 2nd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Brumbies, away
26 April: v Waratahs, away
02 May: v Crusaders, away
10 May: v Cheetahs, home
17 May: v Chiefs, home

Hurricanes:
Current position: 3rd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Stormers, away
26 April: v Cheetahs, away
03 May: v Lions, home
09 May: v Force, home
16 May: v Blues, away

Waratahs:
Current position: 4th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Lions, home
26 April: v Sharks, home
03 May: v Bulls, away
10 May: v Stormers, away
17 May: v Reds, away

Blues:
Current position: 5th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
25 April: v Crusaders, away
03 May: v Reds, away
10 May: v Highlanders, away
16 May: v Hurricanes, home

Force:
Current position: 6th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
18 April: v Reds, away
02 May: v Chiefs, home
09 May: v Hurricanes, away
16 May: v Brumbies, home

Stormers:
Current position: 7th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Hurricanes, home
26 April: v Highlanders, home
03 May: v Brumbies, home
10 May: v Waratahs, home
17 May: v Lions, away

Chiefs:
Current position: 8th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
18 April: v Crusaders, home
26 April: v Reds, home
02 May: v Force, away
10 May: v Lions, away
17 May: v Sharks, away

Brumbies:
Current position: 9th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Sharks, home
25 April: v Lions, home
03 May: v Stormers, away
09 May: v Bulls, away
16 May: v Force, away

Reds:
Current position: 10th
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
18 April: v Force, home
26 April: v Chiefs, away
03 May: v Blues, home
10 May: v Crusaders, home
17 May: v Waratahs, home

Highlanders:
Current position: 11th
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Bulls, away
26 April: v Stormers, away
02 May: v Cheetahs, away
10 May: v Blues, home
17 May: v Crusaders, away

Cheetahs:
Current position: 12th
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
26 April: v Hurricanes, home
02 May: v Highlanders, home
10 May: v Sharks, away
17 May: v Bulls, home

Bulls:
Current position: 13th
Best possible finish: 3rd
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Highlanders,
03 May: v Waratahs, home
09 May: v Brumbies, home
17 May: v Cheetahs, away

Lions:
Current position: 14th
Best possible finish: 2nd
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
19 April: v Waratahs, away
25 April: v Brumbies, away
03 May: v Hurricanes, away
10 May: v Chiefs, home
17 May: v Stormers, home

http://www.rugby365.com/tournaments/...ews/690106.htm

its still very close i dont think force will fall behind much when they have a bye

the waratahs really should be in the top three, with were they have set themselves up this season, that is a pretty good run home!

Go Force! I still believe...

I think Stormers have the best run home.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jazza93

its still very close i dont think force will fall behind much when they have a bye

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Not more than 5 points anyway.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The InnFORCEr

I think Stormers have the best run home.

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The Stormers could give it a real nudge this year, about time they cashed in on their star studded team. Chavanga has really come of age on this tour.

Tahs are very well placed - if the Brumbies stay true to the sacked coach curse and we claim a bonus point over the Lions we'll be in 2nd place. Nice.

The one that struck me was the Sharks - wouldn't take much to start a tumble down the table there.

Sharks are about the luckiest team on the table right now... it has to be luck to win so many close games like that... most of them have been wins from behind if i recall correctly.

Unluckiest must be the Highlanders they have come so close in all but one of their games but just couldnt get over the red line (or white for that matter)

Force have a tougher run home that i thought with two derby's and a killer game against the Canes to stand up to. i hope they can pull it off!

shite, the way some of the teams were still to play have hit form make thumping the reds pretty vital, wont mention the 64 points the chiefs put on us last time we played them ( oops just did ) or the way the canes play when they put it together or even the brumbies for that matter. great finish coming up GO FORCE

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nearthtop

shite, the way some of the teams were still to play have hit form make thumping the reds pretty vital, wont mention the 64 points the chiefs put on us last time we played them ( oops just did ) or the way the canes play when they put it together or even the brumbies for that matter. great finish coming up GO FORCE

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Sucks doesn't it Nearthtop. 3 weeks ago the Brumbies and the Chiefs sucked and 4 or 5 ago the Hurricanes weren't much better. Arrrgghh! I'm confident though. I like the way that everyone relies on each other at this point.