Qtr Final qualifying scenarios
The following is something that I have thrown together regarding some of the bigger teams and the quest in qualifying for the quarters.
In most cases, it was easier to show the scenarios where the team will NOT make the quarters.
Pool C:
For Australia to miss the Quarter Final
- Australia lose to Russia (no BP) and Italy win remaining two games v USA and Ireland - with No BP (Ire 13, Ita 13, Aus 10)
- Australia lose to Russia (no BP) and Italy win 1 of the two games with a 4t BP and get a BP in the other game
- Australia lose to Russia (BP) and Italy win 1 of the two games with a 4t BP and get a BP in the other game, with the overall pts difference for the two games being more than 63pts - (for example, beat USA by more than 70 and lose to Ireland by 7 or less)
- Australia beat Russia (no BP) and Italy win both games with 4t BP and Ire lose to Italy by <7 and score 4t BP.
If the Wallabies beat Russia with a BP, they will qualify for the Quarter finals due to a higher pts difference vs Ireland (as it currently stands 79 Aus, 71 Ire). It is possible that all teams will be on 15 pts, but Ireland or Italy would miss out on Pts difference.
For Ireland to miss Quarter Final
- Italy win 2 games (USA and Ireland, with no BP) and Wallabies beat Russia (no BP) - Italy need to win by at least 25pts vs USA and Ireland by 19ts, with Ireland not getting a BP.
- Italy win 2 games (USA and Ireland with 1 4t BP) and Wallabies beat Russia and Ire do not get BP
- Italy win 2 games (USA and Ireland with 2 4t BP) and Wallabies beat Russia (4t BP) and Ire get close loss and 4t BP. This would put all teams on 15pts, however Italy would need to win both games against USA by at least 25 and Ire by 19pts or more.
Ireland win they are guaranteed to finish top of Pool C.
For England to miss the Quarter Final:
- England lose to Scotland without getting a BP and Scotland getting a 4 try BP (this would put the points as Eng 14, Sco 15) AND Argentina beat Georgia with a 4 try BP (Arg would then be on 15 Pts, Sco 15 and Eng 14).
- The only other result is that Argentina win with a 4t BP or win by 27pts or more without scoring a 4t BP AND Scotland win by 41pts or more, without scoring a 4t BP. This would have Eng and Sco tied on 14pts, but Sco would go through on a superior pts difference (59 vs 58). If Arg don't score a 4t BP, then all 3 teams would be locked on 14pts, with Arg and Sco going through on Pts Diff (59, 59, 58).
For France to miss the Quarter Final
- France lose to Tonga by 29pts or more, with Tonga getting a 4t BP and France not earning any BPs.
There are probably things I have missed, so feel free to complete the scenarios.
