Force Still In Finals Race

[Happy]

was searching for something and this thread popped up .. ahh what a heading

[jargan83]

[maelkann]

Three black mana? Overpriced. Plus where are you going to find three swamps around here, we're getting rid of all the wetlands...

[GIGS20]

Careful, your geek is showing

[valzc]

With Genia now having an ankle op looks even better for the Force to get this one! If Hodgos can't get a berth in a Wobblies game (WTF) at least he's refreshed for the next few games!

[hertryk]

I just saw on foxsports tat we are still a theoretical (not sure on the spelling) chance, just need to beat the blues with a bonus point and then hope tat the bulls, chiefs and brumbies not only lose but pick up no points. Surely after the way the bulls (i think, correct me if i'm wrong) stole a spot in the 4 last year gives remote hope :p regardless of next weeks results im still proud of the efforts and the improvement in the boys this season, bring on season 2008

Season 2008?

[Sheikh]

I just saw on foxsports tat we are still a theoretical (not sure on the spelling) chance, just need to beat the blues with a bonus point and then hope tat the bulls, chiefs and brumbies not only lose but pick up no points. Surely after the way the bulls (i think, correct me if i'm wrong) stole a spot in the 4 last year gives remote hope :p regardless of next weeks results im still proud of the efforts and the improvement in the boys this season, bring on season 2008

Season 2008?

To be fair to Jargs, he did post that on 29th April 2007!

[Sheikh]

For this year's finals: three of the teams above us have played an extra game (Hurricanes, Brumbies and Sharks), so that gives us an advantage.

The remaining matches left of the top teams:

1st: Sharks (played 14, 45 points): Bye, Cheetahs (A), Stormers (A). Likely to get two wins, maybe a bonus point; 54 pts.
2nd: Waratahs (13, 43 pts): Brumbies (H), Highlanders (H), Reds (A). The Brumbies could trip them up, but likely 3 wins, with 1 bonus point; 56 pts.
3rd: Crusaders (13, 41 pts): Hurricanes (A), Blues (H), Highlanders (H). Both the Highlanders and Hurricanes are playing well, but can you bet against 3 wins for the Saders at the sharp end of the season?; 53 pts.
4th: Brumbies (14, 40 pts): Waratahs (A), Bye, Force (H). I've already given the Tah's the win in Sydney, and the match against us will be make or break for the Brumbies. Much as I'd like to give us this, for this analysis, I'm going for a Brumby win; 44 pts.
5th: Highlanders (13, 38 pts): Chiefs (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A). I've given the Tahs and Saders the wins already, so a win against the Chiefs; 42 pts.
6th: Hurricanes (14, 37 pts): Crusaders (H), Chiefs (A), Bye. 1 win; 41 pts.
7th: Force (13, 36 pts): Blues (H), Reds (H), Brumbies (A). 2 wins (remember I gave the Brumbies a win) would be tough given the Blues are improving, but NiB is becoming a fortress; 44 pts.
8th: Chiefs (13, 35): Highlanders (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A). I gave the Highlanders and Hurricanes the wins, so 1 against the Blues; 39 pts.
9th: Bulls (14, 33): Bye, Stormers (A), Rebels (H). 2 wins are possible, but they haven't been getting many bonus points; 41 pts.
10th: Blues (13, 31): Force (A), Crusaders (A), Chiefs (H). None are easy games, and I've already given the wins to teams above them; 31 pts.
11th and below - out of it.

So, the final table would be:
1st Waratahs 56
2nd Sharks 54
3rd Crusaders 53
4th Brumbies 44
5th Force 44
6th Highlanders 42
7th Bulls 41
8th Hurricanes 41
9th Chiefs 39

Therefore, the Brumbies would have to beat us to get into the finals; and if we got a losing bonus point, we'd finish above them.
The Kiwi teams will be playing each other and taking too many points of each other to all maintain their finals spots.
The Saffa teams have all played a game extra, so have a bye, giving them a disadvantage in the run-in.

I doubt the table will finish like this, but it shows how the conference in-fighting could easily develop; the Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Chiefs can't all maintain a fight for the finals, whereas with only 3 Australian teams in the hunt, and only two matches between those three, we can all remain in the top six.

[MI5_Dog]

if it finishes as Sheikh predicts then the first final will be a repeat of the previous weeks game with the Force taking on the Brumbies in Canberra.
So lets hope we get above them on the ladder so it's Force vs Brumbies at NIB instead.

[jargan83]

Season 2008?

I think you need to check the dates on the first page of this thread

[sandgroperrugby]

For this year's finals: three of the teams above us have played an extra game (Hurricanes, Brumbies and Sharks), so that gives us an advantage.

The remaining matches left of the top teams:

1st: Sharks (played 14, 45 points): Bye, Cheetahs (A), Stormers (A). Likely to get two wins, maybe a bonus point; 54 pts.
2nd: Waratahs (13, 43 pts): Brumbies (H), Highlanders (H), Reds (A). The Brumbies could trip them up, but likely 3 wins, with 1 bonus point; 56 pts.
3rd: Crusaders (13, 41 pts): Hurricanes (A), Blues (H), Highlanders (H). Both the Highlanders and Hurricanes are playing well, but can you bet against 3 wins for the Saders at the sharp end of the season?; 53 pts.
4th: Brumbies (14, 40 pts): Waratahs (A), Bye, Force (H). I've already given the Tah's the win in Sydney, and the match against us will be make or break for the Brumbies. Much as I'd like to give us this, for this analysis, I'm going for a Brumby win; 44 pts.
5th: Highlanders (13, 38 pts): Chiefs (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A). I've given the Tahs and Saders the wins already, so a win against the Chiefs; 42 pts.
6th: Hurricanes (14, 37 pts): Crusaders (H), Chiefs (A), Bye. 1 win; 41 pts.
7th: Force (13, 36 pts): Blues (H), Reds (H), Brumbies (A). 2 wins (remember I gave the Brumbies a win) would be tough given the Blues are improving, but NiB is becoming a fortress; 44 pts.
8th: Chiefs (13, 35): Highlanders (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A). I gave the Highlanders and Hurricanes the wins, so 1 against the Blues; 39 pts.
9th: Bulls (14, 33): Bye, Stormers (A), Rebels (H). 2 wins are possible, but they haven't been getting many bonus points; 41 pts.
10th: Blues (13, 31): Force (A), Crusaders (A), Chiefs (H). None are easy games, and I've already given the wins to teams above them; 31 pts.
11th and below - out of it.

So, the final table would be:
1st Waratahs 56
2nd Sharks 54
3rd Crusaders 53
4th Brumbies 44
5th Force 44
6th Highlanders 42
7th Bulls 41
8th Hurricanes 41
9th Chiefs 39

Therefore, the Brumbies would have to beat us to get into the finals; and if we got a losing bonus point, we'd finish above them.
The Kiwi teams will be playing each other and taking too many points of each other to all maintain their finals spots.
The Saffa teams have all played a game extra, so have a bye, giving them a disadvantage in the run-in.

I doubt the table will finish like this, but it shows how the conference in-fighting could easily develop; the Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Chiefs can't all maintain a fight for the finals, whereas with only 3 Australian teams in the hunt, and only two matches between those three, we can all remain in the top six.

If it is as predicted win loss wise then all we need is a bonus point loss or win to knock the brumbies from 4th I think that this is not so far fetched against the reds we should run in 4 tries and possibly get to within 7 of the brumbies. It is the blues game that is key for us.

[valzc]

Hopefully the Reds can be knocked over - it's the blues I'm starting to worry about. And I don't think a safe game plan of kicking is gonna do it! We at least need to start turning on more attack as we'll and with a lot of the boys back on board eg Luke, junior/marcel, DPH ETC lots of backs to choose from surely Foles has developed some tactics to pull this off!

[Kept One]

I don't think we can count any of the last 3 games as a definite win. After a the break for the Tests the time may give some teams time to rejuvenate and improve their game plan. I think we need to to treat each game as sudden death and not assume that any game is in the bag until the full time whistle is blown. Don't get me wrong I love the fact that we are in the hunt at the business end of the season, however I do not want to underestimate the opposition regardless of who they are.

[James]

The good news is that, while 2 wins would be awesome and could see us through to a home final, 1 win and 2 bonus points should still see us to 5th spot.

[hertryk]

To be fair to Jargs, he did post that on 29th April 2007!

Yeh noticed that after! OOOps! Apologies Jargs I must be getting old! I need a holiday!