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Thread: NRC 2015 - Brisbane City v Perth Spirit.

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalahard View Post
    Gee Hoskins is a soft scrummager. He's getting owned as usual. Got a good tighthead up Kalamunda way if they need a scrummaging prop.
    Not sure that they could afford the number of pies it would take the Kala lad to get moving.

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  2. #32
    Champion Tazzmania's Avatar
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    I liked what I saw from the boys, great first hit out and punched above their weight with a team loaded with super 15 players and two ex Wallabies.

    Impressed with Chris Heiberg ,Heath Tessman, Chris Alcock, Kane Koteka ,Angus Cottrell , Maalonga Konelio , Albert Nikoro , Francois van Wyk ,Jermaine Ainsley, Richard Hardwick

    Disappointed with :Oliver Hoskins,Harry Scoble and Sevuloni Mocenacagi

    Cannot wait to be on the hill next week and watch "live" rugby

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    Simon Cron: “People talk about winning and losing all the time and they are critical, but there’s a process to get into and it’s the ability to stay present, do your job and execute skills under pressure.”

  3. #33
    Immortal jargan83's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tazzmania View Post
    Cannot wait to be on the hill next week and watch "live" rugby
    Theres live Rugby on this weekend at that very same hill.

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    Last edited by jargan83; 21-08-15 at 09:18.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beauregard View Post
    Not sure that they could afford the number of pies it would take the Kala lad to get moving.
    The guys played NRL for the Warriors. Hes got the goods to make it at that level. Watch some local rugby before firing blind.

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  5. #35
    Champion andrewg's Avatar
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    Unsure if I'll have the time to do this for all of the games. However, for the final re-match I was interested as to who was going to do all of the work at the breakdown - particularly to try and counter Liam Gill's expected impact.

    It seems that in this team all players are expected to get involved in rucks.

    Turn Overs Won or Penalties Forced by: Brad Lacey (hasn't he bulked up?), Albert Nikoro, Angus Cottrell, Richard Hardwick and Ian Prior.
    (Forwards 2; Backs 3)

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    Very impressed by the work rate, ruck involvement and impact of:
    + Heath Tessman (Good to see him get nearly a full game. Good leadership. V Solid performance)
    + Ross Haylett-Petty (As above)
    + Angus Cottrell (As expected)
    + Kane Koteka & Richard Hardwick (both kept pressure on Gill)
    + Ian Prior (Impressive effort getting thrown into 10 so early. Some very questionable kicking)
    + Maalonga Konelio (Great workrate at breakdown. Another Marcel? Would like to see more of what he can do with the ball in hand).

    Concerned about the workrate/outcomes of:
    + Rory Walton
    + Chris Alcock
    + Chris Heiberg

    + Enjoyed the efforts of the new/young players. Some exciting prospects.
    + Pack did well against the better credentialed pack. Even replacements.
    + Too many handling errors and mistakes when we had the opposition very vulnerable.
    + Backs really an unknown quantity but will improve with this first game.
    + Looking forward to the local finals and next week's game at home.

    +Corrected RH-P's minutes.

    Liam Gill had the most ruck involvements for Brisbane City.
    It was interesting to see how he held off in the 2nd half to concentrate on tackles and then then stepped up when Spirit was lifting.
    A class act. He never appeared to be under any pressure at this level.

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    Gill had a cracker of a game:
    + Big involvement for first 30 mins (14A/5D rucks).
    + Game-high 18 tackles (zero missed) (Cottrell 14/2MT)
    + 11 runs for 75m (5m more than Tessman and about same as Mocenacagi)
    + 2 Def Beaten, 2 Clean Breaks & 3 Off Loads
    + 1 Turn Over Won, 1 Forced Penalty at the breakdown.
    + His support of the City ball-carriers was to provide the clean-out when needed.

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    Last edited by andrewg; 26-08-15 at 12:38.

  6. #36
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    Having watched the game twice now there are numerous problems with the stats posted above.
    1. There is no way in hell Ian Prior hit 24 rucks. How do you come up with these stats.
    2. Hoskins ruck impact was not 100%. There was at least 4 rucks he missed his target including the one near our goal line in the 2nd half that Gill turned over.
    3. Walton was one of our best forwards. Very good at the lineouts (until Scoble started chucking pies), lots of tackles, lots of hitups. Had a very good game, dont know what you were watching.
    4. Same with Alcock. Was very good at carrying and tackling.
    5. Ross Haylett-Petty did not play 80 mins. He came off with 15 to play.
    6. Tessman did not arrive early at every ruck on defense. He was late to at least 5 rucks.
    7. Your focus on ruck stats only does not fully represent a players workrate. You cant question a players workrate on only one aspect of the game. At no point have you measured Hitups, Tackles, Lineout wins, passes received/made, scrums, line breaks, offloads, line break assists etc. To say a player had a questionable workrate with only limited data to back it up is misleading.

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  7. #37
    Champion andrewg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalahard View Post
    5. Ross Haylett-Petty did not play 80 mins. He came off with 15 to play.
    Thanks Kalahard

    My mistake - RH-P did come off at 61 minutes. I show his replacement , Riley Winter, playing 19 minutes.

    Looks like you need to watch the game again and you'll see that Ian Prior did indeed make 24 rucks.
    Far more than I'd expect from a half. However, Australia is blessed with some Utility Backs who regularly contribute well at the breakdown.

    I note that I didn't provide my normal information re the ruck data:

    1. Early means 1st or 2nd of player’s team AFTER the ball carrier has been tackled and brought to ground.
    2. Impact means active engagement: strong physical contact, changed shape of ruck, clean-out, protecting ball etc. (more than hand on someone’s bum or arriving after the hard work has been done). Yes it’s subjective - but as I collect all data at least it’s consistent.
    3. Impact DOES NOT equate to Effectiveness. I’ve concluded that coming up with an effectiveness measure is just too hard in the time that I have available – but open to suggestions.

    (Unfortunately, I know of no other website which makes available all of the other stats for the NRC.)
    ESPN Scrum now showing stats for the City v Spirit game. Spirit had only 33% possession.

    I started producing my own ruck stats as in the same way as you mentioned, all of the other stats fall short without ruck data.

    My interest has always been in the breakdown where usually about 80% of all ruck involvements are made by the Forwards.
    in this game the Spirit Backs made 32% of the total ruck involvements.

    I think that ALL forwards should be involved in either supporting their own team's ball carriers or disrupting/competing for oppositions ball.
    Accordingly my comments are based upon the Forward's involvement at the breakdown.

    I also recognise Backs who competed well at the breakdown.

    They are presented on a best endeavours basis. By all means take it all with a grain of salt.
    The data is presented to aid discussion.

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    Last edited by andrewg; 23-08-15 at 14:22.

  8. #38
    Veteran SNOB's Avatar
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    Love your stats ag! Thanks and I'm sure that most of us appreciate your info.

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    May the FORCE be with you!

  9. #39
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    So leaning on a ruck is a positive stat? Stats do tend to cloud matters. Old saying is that you can use numbers to get whatever result you want.

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  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by choice View Post
    you can use numbers to get whatever result you want.
    Too true - Ruck involvement - forget it, props have a job to do, ruck involvement is an expectation, based on these "stats" 85% and 100% Olly was actually man of the match - what match was I watching?.

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  11. #41
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    Was wondering why Ollie wasn't getting more gametime with the Force last year. Twenty minutes of that game put that question to bed.
    Thought Van Wyk changed our scrum completely when he came on. Don't think he has been re-signed by the Force yet either.If I remember right from the try he scored against the Tahs last year, he can run a bit faster than "plod" which would make him the fastest prop in the squad by a good distance.

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  12. #42
    Champion andrewg's Avatar
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    It's good to get some discussion about the use, misuse or usefulness of stats.

    How do you come up with these stats.

    + I actually sit and watch the game once for enjoyment (either live or on TV).
    + I then watch replays to collect the data for the team which holds most interest (Wallabies, Force or Spirit). This involves much use of the pause and replay buttons to make sure I give the ruck involvement to the right players. I can't collect the data for both teams at once - just too hard.
    + I ended up watching the Spirit game 3 times due to Alcock's limited involvement as I thought I may have attributed his involvement to Koteka or Hardwick.
    + If I want to compare stats from the opposition then I watch the game again with just a focus on their ruck involvements. I may also correct some errors in my initial data gathering.
    + I'm sure I may make some errors. I occasionally mix-up my As and Ds. The yellow numbers on the Spirit's away strip are difficult to see. (as are the Rebel's hollow red outlines).
    + I can tell you that Koteka played with white wrist strappings and Alcock has white skins, Konelio had bright blue boots and Prior had bright green boots and Ross H-P was our only player wearing head protection.
    + I hate the overuse of long-shots/wide angles or spidercam.

    Any system is far from perfect:

    + The early I use is relative to a players own team. They may be early but still later than 3 opposition players.
    + Impact is complicated. In this game Ian Prior (83kg) was prepared to make himself a target while protecting the ball. Pretty gutsy effort from a player who had a plate put into his cheek bone not so long ago. He did this because he could get to the ruck faster than others of his team.
    + Would be great to have a measure of effectiveness and open to suggestions. The fact that the ruck "pillars" are in place may actually prevent the opposition from moving on a Defensive Ruck. I suggest that they still had "impact". The fact that a 120kg front rower may miss his target or even hand out some friendly fire can still have the opposition thinking about getting involved next time. We probably all agree that effective work at the breakdown is a "black art".

    So leaning on a ruck is a positive stat?

    No, and that highlights the problems with some of the commercially available stats that are supplied to some clubs.
    Making contact with the ruck is often given the same rating as someone who provides an effective cleanout.
    Often players arrive too late at the ruck to have any contribution and probably should have been back in the defensive line ready for the next tackle instead.
    If a player arrives at a ruck and positively gets involved, ready for the next onslaught they get recognition for impact.
    If the player ambles up, way too late to make a difference, puts his hand on a mate’s bum with his back to the opposition then in my view he didn’t make any impact but he MAY still get the ruck involvement (late and with no impact).

    Too true - Ruck involvement - forget it, props have a job to do, ruck involvement is an expectation, based on these "stats" 85% and 100% Olly was actually man of the match - what match was I watching?

    I would call this mis-use of the stats.
    Performance at the rucks is not a measure of poor scrumaging.
    Compare Ollie’s ruck performance to Van Wyk who arrived early and hit the ruck with intent.
    Compare also the amount of involvement that the 105kg Heath Tessman had in Defensive Rucks compared to the 120kg Ollie Hoskins. It needs technique (strength, timing, impact point) and/or bulk to counter a great breakdown exponent such as Liam Gill. It's why Hodgo is so good at his craft.

    Compare the ruck stats for the All Blacks Forwards compared to those of the Wallabies.
    The Wallaby Forwards of the past were a lot more involved instead of just leaving the hard defensive ruck work for the Back Row.
    Generally the Locks are strong supporters of their own ball carriers.
    The Front Row and Back Row tend to provide Defensive Ruck support.

    Stats do tend to cloud matters.
    Old saying is that you can use numbers to get whatever result you want.


    You forgot "Statistics, statistics and damn lies".

    Comments like these are usually used when the stats do not support a particular viewpoint or perception about a player or when the stats are just not understood or when people are looking for a quick answer. It's complicated.
    A bit like the over-use of “X-factor” (That which can’t be measured but nevertheless may be rated highly by some. e.g. the VERY occasional dominant tackle or that one memorable play of greatness last year – or was it the year before?)
    We’ve all played with players who train like warriors but play like princesses. The stats usually leave them very exposed.

    It’s a bit like the Hooper v Pocock discussions.
    Pocock is currently out-performing Hooper on any stat that you want to measure (including ball carries, m/carry, defenders beaten, clean breaks, off loads, ruck involvement, tackle effectiveness, turn overs won etc) but some people still like Hooper at No 7.

    There is the other old saying (either said or implied):
    “That was a very well laid out, rational point. But I will still hold to my emotional opinion based on no facts or evidence”.

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    Last edited by andrewg; 23-08-15 at 14:20.

  13. #43
    Senior Player Timbo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by andrewg View Post
    It's good to get some discussion about the use, misuse or usefulness of stats.
    I think that sound was a bitchslapping! Or was it the sound of a troll being dumped off his own bridge!

    Keep up the good work andrewg!!

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  14. #44
    Champion Ralto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timbo View Post
    I think that sound was a bitchslapping! Or was it the sound of a troll being dumped off his own bridge!

    Keep up the good work andrewg!!
    aaaaargh I'm being ravaged by a nerd - lets be honest - bad players getting good stats - everyone keeps their job - everyone's happy, Force bottom of the stick, and the spirit start with a loss - keep on pumping them up - "unlucky boys".

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  15. #45
    Legend Contributor brokendown gunfighter's Avatar
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    just who are you taking a shot at here Ralto-Andrew G for compiling the stats?

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