Super Rugby - Round 18

[WFDom]

Very likely the Blues / Mooloos game next week will be a try fest..... Fu@k a BP would have come in useful

[James]

That's not accurate. We can still make the finals with a loss as long as we get at least a bonus point and other results go our way.

[SNOB]

Foles says that the Madness card could be raised to a red. Must admit I didn't know that it could be redone once it had been served. Saying which I think that the issues of red cards has to be looked at because once a red is issued 9/10 times that team will lose and if it is contentious call nothing is going to change the end result.
Must also say I wasn't that impressed with madness. He seemed to go into contact way to upright and didn't make many meters.

[GIGS20]

That's not accurate. We can still make the finals with a loss as long as we get at least a bonus point and other results go our way.

Nobody ever wants to rely on other results James.

A BP win should be the focus next week. Win at all costs, sudden death football started tonight for us.

[AndyS]

Bonus points to us make no difference only wins as we are 1 game ahead of every one with 9 wins
A win next week gives us a home play off game if we finish 4th and looking at the ladder it looks great but its a must win as a lose puts us out
Do or die final game agianst the Nags

Nope, got to disagree. The Blues are done now - they've got nothing to play for. A Chiefs win almost guarantees three NZ teams in the finals, a BP almost guarantees a NZ team 4th spot. I was quite disappointed by the strategic awareness tonight - we turned down multiple opportunities to chase the extra try, at least one with the Reds on a warning and at least two unconverted anyway. Instead we reverted to that defensive mindset that cost us so many games last year and had the Reds level the score. Thankfully we shook it off (and are now able to), but the opportunity to chase the extra point was gone. Had we got it, then we might have had a passable chance of 4th and the cash bonus that comes with it (assuming the Crusaders bother to show up next week and don't gift 4th to the Highlanders). But if we couldn't get it at home against one of the bottom sides, I wouldn't be counting on it against the second team in the conference at their house. Without it, we are relying on the NZ teams to be bloody-minded and deny each other. Most likely we are making up the numbers and travelling should we make the finals.

Bulls are done too.

And the Sharks went down with just a bonus point. Should put the acid back into the Crusaders-Highlanders match, given they might now be playing for second spot, the week off and a home semi.

[chibi]

Have to admit, I was calling to "Go for the Corner!" whenever we got a penalty in the second-half. Funny isn't it? There was a similar lack of urgency to get the BP in the home game against the Waratahs earlier this season.

[Tonkar]

Another scenairo would be blues beat cheifs and brumbies loose to force by under 7 and then 3 aussie teams in the finals with the Nags coming to Perth for a playoff game in Perth the following week

[Ecky]

Well THAT was the wrong week to pick some roughies in the tipping comp...

[James]

Nobody ever wants to rely on other results James.

A BP win should be the focus next week. Win at all costs, sudden death football started tonight for us.

True. But I will take what I can get.

[jargan83]

I'm fairly sure that to finish 4th we need:

Waratahs to beat the Highlanders this afternoon
Crusaders to beat the Highlanders next week
Force to beat the Bumbies

If we lose with a within 7 points bonus point we need the Blues to beat the Chiefs .

If the Force beat the Brumbies and Chiefs beat the Blues we need the blues to deny the Chiefs the 4 try bonuses point.

As said by others, a 4 try bonus point last night would have been gold.

[jargan83]

Surface at SFS looks fairly average

[jono]

Surface at SFS looks fairly average

Looks like Folau's new hairdo has rubbed off onto the grass.

[Sheikh]

OK, so after the Tah's trouncing of the Highlanders next week looks like this (I think!):

The Tahs are through as No. 1.

The Saders need a bonus point against the Sharks, and a win by a fair amount, if they want to tie-up 2nd, as the Sharks play in Cape Town after them and know that if they match the Saders' result plus 8 points they go 2nd. Therefore, I don't think the Saders will ease up on the Highlanders. If they lose to the Highlanders, they'd need to lose by more than 7 and have 4 tries against to drop to 4th, though.

The Sharks are guaranteed at least 3rd, but could go to 2nd if they get a better result (plus 8) against the Stormers than the Saders get against the Highlanders.

The Highlanders could go 2nd if they beat the Saders by more than 7 with a 4 try bonus point. In order to drop out of 6th, though, the Chiefs need to win, and the loser of the Force-Brumbies to score 4 tries and lose by less than 7.

The Hurricanes are stuck on 41 points and reliant on other results to stay in the finals. They need the Chiefs to lose in Auckland and the Brumbies-Force game to result in the losing team not getting a bonus point. In fact, if the Blues beat the Chiefs by ~40 points with 4 tries, the Canes are out, too.

The Brumbies-Force game is a simple winner goes to the finals. If the Saders beat the Highlanders (which they might have to - see above) then the winner may well be 4th. The loser may still get into the finals if they get a losing bonus point and the Chiefs don't win or draw.

For the Chiefs, win in Auckland and they are in the finals. They can even finish as high as 4th if they get a bonus point win and neither the Highlanders win nor the Force/Brumbies get a bonus point win. Or if they win, the Highlanders lose and the Force and Brumbies draw!

The Blues can actually still make 6th if they beat the Chiefs by ~40 with a bonus point and the loser of Force-Brumbies doesn't get a bonus point.

[James]

Bonus points determine our final points score. Wins determine whether we sit above or below teams with the same final points score. There is no possible result that would see the Chiefs, Blues or Hurricanes on more wins than us at the end of the season. Therefore we only need to match them on final points score. Therefore bonus points make a big difference.

[AndyS]

It is that last that is the rub. We are very much at the mercy of what happens in the Chiefs-Blues game, where the Blues are either playing for nothing or throwing the ball around like loonies to try and make a miracle happen. But we have to rely on them to make life hard for the Chiefs (and to some extent, the NZRU), or taking a bonus point win away from the Brumbies when this week showed what just winning away is like. Had we got the bonus point last night however, it would be real simple - beat the Brumbies any old way and we would be 4th unless the Highlanders beat the Crusaders. Instead we went defensive, which is the really worrying sign. At 17-3 the good teams; finals teams; go for the jugular. We kind of did the opposite.