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Lions will be the next big test for the Wallabies
Paul Cully, October 19, 2011
Australia's World Cup isn't over just yet but it is not too early to look ahead.
Two years is not a long time in rugby and the British and Irish Lions tour in 2013 is a wonderful chance for the Wallabies to put their mark on history after a disappointing World Cup.
Anyone who watched Duncan McRae beating the face off Ronan O'Gara at the SFS in 2001 during an ill-tempered Lions v Waratahs match will confirm the unusual passions the Lions can provoke. Some traditionalists even prefer the tour format – wonderfully anachronistic by modern sporting terms – to the tournament play of the World Cup. Three Tests, a huge travelling support for the Lions, highly charged matches against provincial outfits - it ticks the purists' boxes.
So how are the Lions shaping up? Powerfully, from what we've seen in New Zealand. The set-piece was never going to be an issue, but they have revealed athleticism in the back row and power among the backs that will give Australia plenty to think about. Let's have a look at the key areas and the personnel that are likely to make the trip.
The front row
It is impossible not to be begin here, because this is where the Lions will attack the Wallabies all day. On the tight-head side, Welshman Adam Jones was never beaten – even against the Springboks – until injury cruelly ended his semi-final prematurely. He scrummages low and hard, the technique that has troubled the Wallabies on the loose-head side all tournament, although the badly missed Benn Robinson will be confident of holding his own. England's Dan Cole has not entirely convinced in the No.3 jersey, but at just 24 years old he has time - and huge natural power - on his side. It remains to be seen whether Andrew Sheridan can make another comeback from a shoulder injury on the loose-head side, but the emergence of Cian Healy could make up for his loss. Healy was a bull for Ireland, upsetting the Wallabies at Eden Park and, more memorably, seeing off the challenge of Martin Castrogiovanni in Dunedin. And right behind him is 2005 and 2009 Lion Gethin Jenkins. Throw in hookers Matthew Rees, Huw Bennett (both Wales), Rory Best (Ireland) and Ross Ford (Scotland) and the Lions look well represented here. Rating: 8.5/10
The second row
If Courtney Lawes manages to work out the difference between hurting people and being a hard man then the Lions will have themselves a player. Until then he is an extremely athletic liability. However, the Lions have a strong record at getting the most out of aggressive individuals and Lawes is the sort of player who could grab a series by the neck. Also, it would not be a Lions tour without a designated enforcer to sort out any unpleasantness. Welsh pair Alun Wyn-Jones and Luke Charteris have got through a power of work in the tight, although France successfully targeted their set-piece after Sam Warburton's dismissal. There is also a lot of upside in beanpole Scotsman Richie Gray. At 208cm and just 22 years old, Gray has the potential to make massive strides in the next two years. Rating 8/10
The back row
Richie McCaw has (bullshit) seen off his young challengers this year, but in two years Sam Warburton and David Pocock (along with Heinrich Brussow) might genuinely be in a contest to be the best No.7 on the planet. Pocock is stronger over the ball but Warburton is quicker to get there. Both have outstanding leadership qualities and could be captaining their respective teams by 2013. It may be that they cancel each other out, putting even more importance on the battles between the No.6 and No.8s. This is an area where the Lions would appear to have an edge. At present, Australia do not have an answer to the power of northern hemisphere dynamos Sean O'Brien, Stephen Ferris (both Ireland) Dan Lydiate and Toby Faletau (both Wales), all of whom should be even stronger players by 2013. The raw materials are in place for one of the great Lions back rows, because not only are they fine individual players, but their skill sets complement each other. There is pace, immense strength and high work rates. Pocock is going to need some help. Rating 9/10
The No.9 and No.10
How Wales missed the composure and clever kicking game of Rhys Priestland against France. They would have won had he been on the field. This has not been a World Cup for No.10s because the best two – Dan Carter and Priestland – were cut down by injury just when it was getting interesting. In the group stages and quarter-final, Priestland showed that wonderful knack of knowing when to release the pace and power around him and when to plug the corners. At times against Samoa defence was an issue, but that might be over-critical – he clearly understands the game. Ireland's Jonathan Sexton might have lost his place to Ronan O'Gara following the Wallabies game, but his willingness to take on the line brings something else to the table. Both men will be in their most productive years by 2013. And both would be helped immensely if 29-year-old Welsh No.9 Mike Phillips can find another tour in him. His physical approach takes so much pressure off his inside men, although Ireland's Conor Murray, 22, is a real prospect in the same mould. England's Ben Youngs went backwards but he has the talent to bounce back if he forgets everything he has been taught in that England camp. Rating 7.5/10
The midfield
Potentially frightening. That is the only way to describe the pairing of Jamie Roberts and Manu Tuilagi if a way of dovetailing their respective powers can be found. At times, both have been virtually unstoppable with ball in hand during the World Cup. Both run great lines in attack and set up that fast, front-foot ball that has become so crucial against increasingly well-organised defences. But combining them might be easier said than done. It may be that the Lions are forced to opt for one over the other and choose a different type of weapon alongside them. Keith Earls (Ireland) and Jonathan Davies (Wales) present themselves as possible alternatives but it might not be too early to be extolling the virtues of 21-year-old Welshman Scott Williams. He has been used sparingly in New Zealand but looks like a proper talent. Rating 8.5/10
The back three
At about 110kg, young Welsh winger George North brings a touch of the Pacific Islands to the Lions in a different way to Tuilagi. In fact, the Lions could well choose four 100kg-plus players in their back line alone. Gone are the days when the southern hemisphere teams enjoyed a physical superiority in this department. But it's not all about mass. The Lions are not likely to starve Chris Ashton of the ball in the way England did, and the Wallabies already know about his acceleration. Leigh Halfpenny has been a revelation at fullback, safe under the high ball and always looking for attacking opportunities. Rob Kearney (Ireland) is another one who fits that description at No.15 and countrymen Tommy Bowe and Andrew Trimble are bristling with aggression. England's Ben Foden is another Englishman who did not have his best tournament but whose gifts might be appreciated in another environment. In short, there is quality and depth. The Wallabies will have their work cut out. Rating 8.5/10
Possible British and Irish Lions XV in 2013 (Team and current age)
1 Cian Healy (Ireland, 24)
2 Matthew Rees (Wales, 30)
3 Adam Jones (Wales, 30)
4 Alun Wyn-Jones (Wales, 26)
5 Courtney Lawes (England, 22)
6 Sean O'Brien (Ireland, 24)
7 Sam Warburton - captain (Wales, 23)
8 Toby Faletau (Wales, 20)
9 Mike Phillips (Wales, 29)
10 Rhys Priestland (Wales, 24)
11 George North (Wales, 19)
12 Jamie Roberts (Wales, 24)
13 Manu Tuilagi (Samoa...oops England, 20)
14 Chris Ashton (England, 24)
15 Leigh Halfpenny (Wales, 22)
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