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What a difference a win makes? Who else has felt great this week? Nothing is better than a win, except a win against another Australian franchise. The Force have finally shown promise. Can this promise get us home against the Bulls for our first win at NIB stadium this season? The Bulls have lost their way a bit this season and have suffered an annihilation at the hands of the Crusaders and were also run ragged against the Reds in a game where the score line flattered the visiting side. This game will be something of a turning point for both sides. While the Force won’t make the finals, there is pride in the season to salvage. The Bulls, meanwhile, still have an eye on a wildcard finals spot. Who is going to be more motivated? Who is going to come out on top?
Head to Head
Despite having been Super rugby champion for three of the past five seasons, the Bulls have always been a good source of points for the Western Force, with the Perthicans having earnt 10 in the 5 clashes. While the inaugural game (won by the Bulls 30-21) yielded little for the Force, the fans at Subiaco Oval did get to witness a sparkling second half display from inside pairing Scott Staniforth and James Hilgendorf. Three tries in 20 minutes in the second half had the Bulls rattled; however they pulled it together in the final minutes to deny the home side a win or the losing bonus point. The following year the tables turned with the Force pulling off the final score to take one of their most glorious victories in their Super rugby history (30-27). Winning on the hallowed ground of Loftus Versfeld is a rare pleasure; especially as the Bulls went on to win their maiden championship that year. The following year saw another closely run match decided by an after the siren try to Ryan Cross (15-14). 2009 saw yet another tight finish, this time the Bulls prevailed (32-29). Only last year’s match was a true break in the tradition. The Force were leading 12-10 at half time only to be shut out in the second half and lose by 13 points (28-15). Last year aside, the Force have a habit of winning the second half over a tiring Bulls outfit, can they do it again? Or will the Bulls run rampant as they did in 2010?
Strengths and Opportunities
The big thing the team could have taken from last weekend is confidence. They finally played a full 80 minutes of rugby and it payed off in the 77th minute with victory guaranteed. You can expect more of the same, but with sharper execution and far fewer brain farts. Having spent the last 4 weeks on the road, the Bulls are ripe for picking against a team that can string together 80 minutes. We are fitter and more mobile than the Bulls, and we need to use this to our advantage. If the game stays fast and loose, we should gain ascendancy at the breakdown.
The Bulls aren’t an imaginative attacking team- they prefer a direct approach. You can bet their game plan is centred around running Morne Steyn and Wynand Olivier at James O’Connor all night and avoiding our strapping outside backs who are all around 100kgs and capable of putting in some good hits. While normally I am not a fan of hiding players on defence, having O’Connor move back to 15 would tighten up the midfield and provide us with some dangerous counter-attack when the Bulls eventually get frustrated and put the ball in the air. The Bulls are one-dimensional, but they do that one-dimensional exceptionally well. Shut it down and we can get them to flounder.
Weaknesses and Threats
Much of the Force’s dominance of the final 10-15 minutes in Canberra came down to dominating the breakdown and pressuring the line-out. While a similar opportunity may present at the breakdown, Victor Matfield is light years ahead of the Brumbies in line-out management and may just have the Force in the position the Brumbies were in last weekend. We can’t afford to get into a territory game against the Bulls- that’s their bread and butter. Any up field kicking must be religiously chased and, where possible, the receiver brought down in order to force the Bulls’ lumbering forwards to scramble back and tire them out. The other big danger man after Matfield is kick-o-tron 5000 turbo Morne Steyn. While Steyn is limited in his creativity, he is unparalleled in his kicking and would have earnt 15-24 points from the Force’s ill-discipline had he been the Brumbies’ kicker. He will punish us all night if we don’t hold our nerve.
Key-Match Ups
Whenever the Force line up against the Bulls it is hard to look past the tussle between Nathan Sharpe and Victor Matfield. The world’s two best line-out exponents going mano a mano is always a good reason to get excited. Both players the first picked on their national tea, both players reaching the twilight of their career. But let’s look ahead to the future. A really cracking contest amongst the young guns will be the face-off between Ben McCalman and Pierre Spies. The pair are very much in the same mould: physical, aggressive, and athletic players who also are reliable targets in the line-out. Both players are also tasked with nailing down the number 8 jersey for their respective national sides amidst some very tough competitions. Expect some bone crunching tackles as McCalman and Spies go head to head.
The Prediction
The Bulls are out of form and fatigued after 4 weeks on the road. While they are no easy-beats by any standard, you can’t help but get the sense that the little things will go against them. History of Bulls tours says that this one is the Force’s to lose. The Force, on the other hand, are a stronger and more confident side. The backs seem to finally be clicking and will surely be competent enough to score some tries, a feat they were unable to achieve last year. We will weather the early Bulls rampage and come home strong to win by 9.
Teams
Western Force
1. Pek Cowan
2. Ben Whittaker
3. Matt Dunning
4. Sam Wykes
5. Nathan Sharpe (Captain)
6. Richard Brown
7. Jono Jenkins
8. Ben McCalman
9. Brett Sheehan
10. Willie Ripia
11. Rory Sidey
12. James O'Connor
13. Patrick Dellit
14. Nick Cummins
15. Cameron Shepherd
Reserves
16. Nathan Charles
17. Kieran Longbottom
18. Tom Hockings
19. Tevita Metuisela
20. Mark Swanepoel
21. Mark Bartholomeusz
22. Alfie Mafi
Blue Bulls
1. Dean Greyling
2. Chiliboy Ralepelle
3. Werner Kruger
4. Bakkies Botha
5. Victor Matfield
6. Deon Stegmann
7. Dewald Potgieter
8. Pierre Spies
9. Fourie du Preez
10. Morné Steyn
11. Francois Hougaard
12. Wynand Olivier
13. Stephan Dippenaar
14. Bjorn Basson
Reserves
15. Zane Kirchner
16. Gary Botha
17. Rossouw de Klerk
18. Flip van der Merwe
19. Danie Rossouw
20. Derick Kuün
21. Jaco van der Westhuyzen
22. Francois Brummer
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Originally Posted by todd4
