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Thread: Tahs more likely to win finals than make them

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    Tahs more likely to win finals than make them

    Spiro Zavos | May 12, 2009


    HERE is the irony. The Waratahs are a good chance to win the Super 14 - if they make the finals.

    The attritional, last-ditch defensive style NSW used to keep the Sharks tryless for the first time in a decade at Durban - while scoring two tries against the third-best defence in the tournament - is the game that traditionally wins knockout finals.

    Unfortunately for the Waratahs, it is not the sort of game that guarantees a finals place.
    The Super 14, like the Rugby World Cup tournament, is two tournaments in one competition. The round-robin part of the tournament sorts out the finalists with a bonus-points system that benefits teams which score tries. The Blues, the top try-scoring side in the tournament, have won only five matches out of 12. The Waratahs, a team that has the second least number of bonus points (along with the Sharks), have won eight matches and are only five points ahead of the Blues on the points table.

    But in the finals, as in the World Cup, bonus points disappear. The scores on the board are the only points that count. In this tight, knockout environment a side that does not concede points easily, that has strong set pieces and has enough power and skills to get a try or two (all qualities the Waratahs have shown this season) has a great chance of on coming out on top.

    Controversial British rugby writer Stephen Jones refers to the Super 14 as "'candy floss" rugby. He clearly did not see Stirling Mortlock put a monster tackle on Blues prop Tony Woodcock that effectively turned the match towards the Brumbies after their lacklustre first half. This match was played by the Brumbies as if it were a final. Although the Blues ran rampant against them in the first half, only 10 points were conceded. The defence near the tryline was desperate and effective, except for two lapses. In the second half, especially after Mortlock's tackle, the Brumbies belted in five tries against the rattled Blues with precise, hard-shouldered play.

    The New Zealand derby between the Chiefs and the Hurricanes, with both teams playing in a must-win frame of mind, was anything but "candy floss" rugby, as well. These two teams have scored the most points in the tournament (the Hurricanes 343 and the Chiefs 328) yet they battled out a 16-8 result to the Chiefs with only one try scored by each side. There was plenty of vibrant running but this was nullified by some thunderous tackling.

    The history of the Super rugby tell us that the team that has the soundest defensive game and a strong ensemble game will win the finals. It is not a coincidence that since the introduction of Super rugby teams from the southern hemisphere have won three of the four subsequent World Cup tournaments. Jones simply does not know what he is writing about when he dismisses the Super 14 as a sugary confection. In the inaugural final, the Blues smashed David Knox, the gifted Brumbies playmaker, and went on to strong-arm a victory.

    All those victories by the Crusaders and the wins by the Brumbies and the Bulls in 2007 were built on a fortress-like defence combined with brilliant breakouts.

    The Waratahs have the easiest match of any of the seven teams still in contention for a finals position in the last round. Despite their meagre point-scoring record (203, the second lowest), they should get four tries against the Lions. But they are dependent on several upsets to get through.

    A final point: SA Rugby killed off an excellent proposal to have six teams in the finals by insisting that each of the SANZAR partners have two teams in the finals. This nonsense was rejected by the ARU and the NZRU. If the two-team policy was in place all the drama that is coming up this weekend, with the last match between the Sharks and the Bulls probably deciding who is in or out, would be lost.
    spiro@theroar.com.au

    http://www.rugbyheaven.com.au/news/n...893918724.html

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    I more likely 2 win lotto if I by a ticket.

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