Two Bonus Points Keep Finals Hopes Alive as Western Force Go Down to the Bulls

[benny]

I'd be happy for one thing. the Force are the highest finishing Australian team.
Games such as the Blues - Canes (should of be wins) Sharks (didn't even turn up) we should of won, they will come to bite us in the arse.

But good luck to the 25 over in SAFFA land hope we can get a 5 pointer this week.

[slomo]

I doubt the vbookies will give me 17000-1 like they did at this time last year

you could always ask, you gotta love OX's end of year odds!!...

[jargan83]

Jealous?

Not at all
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[robyn <3]

Not at all
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Sure, sure

[Jehna]

the whole "mathematical chance" argument sounds more like a Dockers supporter

At least the Dockers supporters are supporting their team and showing some loyalty which is not something I can say for you right now Jargs. Don't spin you're "i'm older and wiser" argument against those who continue to hope. It doesn't make us ignorant or naive if we display some positivity, and it certainly isn't unique to the 'youth'.

[jargan83]

We have had our chances this year and unfortunately we have let them slip. I would love to see us make the the semis, dont you call me disloyal for being realistic. I didn't call anyone ignorant or attack anyone for being positive, you have every right to be positive just as I have the right to be cynical.

Unfortunately our fate is now completely out of our hands and in the hands of others in terms of who beats who. While we may not be dead and buried yet, the coffin is being lowered into the plot
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[GIGS20]

We could make the four this week if 5 of the top teams lose with no bonus point and we win with a bonus point.

I haven't looked at the draw to see if that's even possible, but a bonus point will will help us to have a chance at home!

[jargan83]

on the plus side we still have a good points differential
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[The Ethicist]

I'm sorry to say, I think the lads will be emotionally and physically drained after that game. It will be hard to get up for the Stormers.

They left nothing on the pitch. They must be very sore today. It must be a huge let down as well as the season is probably gone now.

What the hell, I like to dream. Force over the Stormers with a BP.

[gotheforce]

What are the injuries count looking like?
I know JOC is injured, Sheps didnt look too good. Spanner and Valo looked a bit worse for wear. And no idea about Brown, he got pulled off pretty early.

[Timbo]

Well it goes like this for the next two rounds:

Cru def Red; Hig def Lio; Hur def Chi; Blu def Bru; Sha def War; Bul def Che; WF def Sto + bp

Chi def Bru; Lio def War; Blu def Cru; Hur def Red; WF def Hig + bp; Sto def Che; Bul def Sha

Resultant table:
Hur 47
Bul 45
Chi 41
WF 40
Blu 40

WF through on PD

Relies on 2 x 5 pointers by WF and no bp to Blues or Sharks. Sure alignment of stars will help but it is not a totally unrealistic set of results

[GIGS20]

I thought it'd be something like that, Tahnks Timbo, hope the injury gods smile!

[AndyS]

It is doable, but we do require a couple of other results...most likely, it will come down to how the Crusader/Reds, Brumbies/Blues and Blues/Crusaders games pan out. All our boys can do is score 5 point wins for the last two rounds and see how the chips fall.

[mudskipper]

It will sure make for some exciting rugby and the Force boys are playing some good rugby...

[Darren]

Been quickly crunching some numbers and a few win/loss scenarios.

As far as I can tell (and there are a lot of combinations to consider, so I'm probably wrong) to make the final 4 we need to win the remaining 2 matches with a bonus point, AND no other teams above us are allowed to win with a bonus point (well the ones in a similar position to us) AND the sharks have to lose one of their remaining 2 matches (Bulls or Waratahs) AND we probably have to maintain our high PD in relation to other teams.

This is the minimum that needs to go our way. An upset in a match or two (not ours!) should also see us over the line!

If the world conspires against us AND we do indeed win the last 2 games with a bonus points, we'll end up 2 points out of the top 4 in 6th - 8th spot on 40 points.

As an aside, if we win just one of our last 2 matches without a bonus point - based on premiership points, we will have maintained our record of improving each year since inception.

2006: 12
2007: 32
2008: 33
2009: 30 (as at round 12)