Waratahs could slip to seventh as semi-finals logjam grows

[travelling_gerry]

Waratahs could slip to seventh as semi-finals logjam grows

Greg Growden Chief Rugby Correspondent | May 6, 2008


THERE is one simple reason the Waratahs players and coaching staff refuse to make any mention of Super 14 finals appearances and home semi-finals. It's because they could very easily miss the finals altogether.

Every question posed about finals to Waratahs coach Ewen McKenzie and captain Phil Waugh has so far prompted blank looks, because although the Waratahs are sitting comfortably in second spot, they could end up as low as seventh if they fall apart in the final two rounds.

And their fortnight before the finals is hardly a safe course. Their capitulation against the Bulls in Pretoria last Saturday night has reopened doubts as to whether they have the attacking experience to safely negotiate the difficult South African leg of the Super 14.

Beating the Stormers at Newlands this weekend will be an even more difficult task than the one that confronted the Waratahs at Loftus Versfeld, because the Cape Town team is far more dangerous, quicker and more versatile than the Bulls. Stormers coach Rassie Erasmus is also the master of destabilising opponents.


In the end, the Waratahs' finals campaign could rest on their final-round match against Queensland in Brisbane on May 17. And NSW need no reminding that the Reds, a vastly superior brand to last year's model, always rise for Australian rugby's most bitter provincial match, and would love nothing better than humiliating their rivals by forcing them out of the finals.

There are seven genuine candidates for the finals, while two others - the Brumbies and Force - are mathematical chances. There is also a strong possibility a number of teams will end up at equal fourth. Then for-and-against points will be used to decide who goes through. In NSW's favour is that they have a healthy differential of 62 - but that will drop if they continue losing.

Only the Crusaders are assured a finals spot, and due to their 10-point competition lead, they are also guaranteed a home semi-final in Christchurch.
The next best finals chances are the two South African provinces, the Stormers and Sharks.

The Stormers will be using Saturday night's match against the Waratahs as their chance to get into a home semi-final position - at the expense of NSW. The Stormers' season then drops in intensity with a last-round match against the bottom-rung Lions.
The Sharks have a good run into the finals, and are bound to rise from their present sixth spot. They face the poorly performing Cheetahs, before confronting the Chiefs, whose momentum was stalled against the Force in Perth last weekend. The Chiefs are also heading to South Africa with injury concerns.


Centres Richard Kahui and Callum Bruce and halfback Jamie Nutbrown all have ankle problems, second-rower Kevin O'Neill has an elbow complaint while prop Simms Davison has a bad back. All Blacks halfback Brendon Leonard is still sidelined with a knee injury.
As a result, the Hurricanes are more likely to be New Zealand's second team in the finals, even if their last two rounds are tricky - confronting the Force at home before meeting the Auckland Blues away.

However, there is one thing that is certain. The make-up of the Super 14 semi-finals will not be known early, but only after the final bell of the final-round game between the Sharks and the Chiefs in Durban on Sunday week.
THE ROAD AHEAD


CRUSADERS (47 pts) Are cruising. Home semi-final secured and easy last rounds against Reds away and Highlanders at home.

WARATAHS (37 pts) Must beat either Stormers away or Reds away to feel relatively safe. Bonus points imperative.

HURRICANES (36 pts) Should make it, but tricky as they play Force at home before the Blues away.

STORMERS (35 pts) In form and could snare home semi if they beat Waratahs at home, before playing Lions away.

CHIEFS (33 pts) On the road in South Africa playing the Lions and Sharks, and with injury worries, could miss out.

SHARKS (32 pts) Big danger for the Waratahs as they have Cheetahs and Chiefs at home.

BLUES (31 pts) An outside chance, playing the Highlanders away and Hurricanes at home.

BRUMBIES, FORCE (28 points) Remain mathematical chances.

[no.8]

Aaawwww, poor little powder puffs!

[force addict]

HURRICANES (36 pts) Should make it, but tricky as they play Force at home before the Blues away.

yeah thats right.. be afraid

BRUMBIES, FORCE (28 points) Remain mathematical chances.

and we're going to use those chances very well

[jono]

Every question posed about finals to Waratahs coach Ewen McKenzie and captain Phil Waugh has so far prompted blank looks, because although the Waratahs are sitting comfortably in second spot, they could end up as low as seventh if they fall apart in the final two rounds.

here's hoping!