5 things learned about each Conference
May 12, 2014
5 things learned about the AUS Conference
One cannot doubt that the Australian Conference always serves up a surprise or two every season, a few years ago there was that electric championship season in Queensland, and lately the Brumbies have transformed into one of the leading outfits.
This year the centre of excitement is way out west, with the Force on the verge of a historic maiden final’s appearance, there is a stirring in Sydney while the Reds are revisiting days they thought they had left behind.
Australia’s leading chance need to be wary of African connection
The Brumbies victory over the top of the table Sharks could be a mixed victory for the men from ACT, for while they defeated a fellow contender, they showed how reliant they can be on South African blueprint of kick pressure tactics.
With a tour to the Republic to come, the Brumbies will need to ensure they don’t drift dramatically towards this style – a big reason for their success in 2014 has been from the obvious addition of a Larkham-esque style running game.
The Bulls are evidence that a percentage style strategy can win a Super Rugby title, but most winners have had deadly attacking ability and a developed skill of scoring tries.
One thing history supports is clear, previous Brumbies teams that have won the tournament haven’t done it with a one-dimensional game.
The Force will not want to turn to the dark side
The Western Australians continue to prove their transformation, with seven wins in ten matches they are roughly 16-17 competition points – with six games to play – away from near assured top six rights.
However almost every season a side comes from no-where to make a positive early/mid-season impression.
And the same year potentially that same franchise fades away as the intensity of matches rises with each passing week.
The Force so far have proven one definite, they are among the best defensive sides, conceding just 18 tries (equal second best in the comp).
We will quickly point out that few championships in Super Rugby are won off tackling alone, but it is always a vital component of such success.
Michael Foley’s 2014 hybrid of the Force might not wrack up the points, but that passionate blue wall is almost impossible to breach.
Now is not the time for Red faces
It is difficult to condemn the 2011 champions when looking at how strong Super Rugby’s field is this year.
One remembers former coach Ewen McKenzie lamenting after that title win at how teams had worked overtime, and successfully at that, in shutting down a Reds attack that a few years ago was irresistible.
It wouldn’t be far from the truth that the likes of Will Genia and Quade Cooper have been comprehensively studied to the point where teams base their systems around shutting such players down.
Even under the former Wallabies coach, Queensland slowly shifted tactically, a big reason why the flamboyance is not as common as it was in the team’s heyday.
No side would have resisted the Crusaders complete game in the second half.
What happens next will be decided in the corridors of Ballymore, but there will be some changes, the first according to media rumour that James O’Connor could be enticed to Brisbane.
Waratahs under the radar?
It is amazing what a week can do, not just for the fact that the men from New South Wales were the only Round 13 bye, but the bumper weekend that has just passed will result in the Waratahs quietly resuming their campaign.
The ‘Jake White’ return, the Reds loss, the Force’s tour win, there is plenty of conversation to distract from the fact that despite lack of activity – Michael Cheika’s troops are only one competition point out of the top six.
If the team is only as good as their last game, that five-try 39-30 win against the potent Hurricanes needs to be repeated against the Lions this weekend.
The Waratahs will be chasing just their second back-to-back win of the year.
McKenzie to again earn his pay
One of the hallmarks of the McKenzie era was one of the best runs against New Zealand Super Rugby teams of any Australian or South African franchise coach.
The Wallabies, with 18 losses from their last 20 matches against the All Blacks, look to be up against another big assignment.
To defeat the World Champions, or even better wrest the Bledisloe Cup off New Zealand, would be a shot in the arm to Australian Rugby as significant as lifting the Webb Ellis trophy itself.
The Kiwi conference surge though highlights what a challenge the Wallabies will have to overcome, but while man for man New Zealand teams might have had the recent edge – the best 15 from each country are a closer match.
At least McKenzie and supporters of the green and gold will hope that is the case despite recent results.
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5 things learned about the NZ Conference
After an almost traditional slow start, the New Zealand Conference is now the form group in 2014 Super Rugby.
While this points towards a typically formidable squad for the All Blacks in the coming weeks, the Kiwis will not have it all their own way in the closing stages of the regular season.
Internal cannibalisation to readjust table
With four teams in the top seven, the continued form of the New Zealand teams in theory could see them dominate the Super Rugby Finals Series.
But this will not be the case.
In the first 13 weeks of Super Rugby, there have been ten Kiwi derbies.
In the final six rounds, there are a further ten.
Four of those six rounds will feature doubles, meaning that collectively (draws aside), there are ten guaranteed defeats waiting for the New Zealand teams.
Crusaders form must be backed by home rights
Over the last three years at this time of the season the Crusaders have been six points (2011) or seven points (2012, 2013) away from the ladder leaders.
This year the seven-time champions have a five-point gap but more importantly have a game in hand compared to the Sharks, Brumbies and Chiefs.
It will be difficult to argue that they are the team to beat.
Two wins in South Africa, success in Hamilton and 97 points in two games against Australian opposition is backed by four games at AMI stadium in their last six.
They also have two more outer conference games to come in that home stretch.
Against the Sharks (who have never won in Christchurch), and the Force (one draw, two losses), the Crusaders also have their almost insane records against South African and Australian teams to enhance their claims.
Only once has a side from the Republic won in Christchurch (Northern Transvaal in 1996), while only four times has an Australian team won in Crusaders territory.
Home advantage counts for so much, and few teams win final's rugby with red and black flags waving.
Chiefs bid back on track at neighbours expence
Already the more powerful New Zealand teams are killing off the chances of their local rivals.
The Blues loss to the champions wasn’t mathematically terminal, four wins from their last five with some bonus points will keep them in calculations.
However they will need to beat the likes of the Crusaders, Hurricanes and Chiefs if they are to have any hopes - three teams that have proved they are championship contenders.
The Chiefs, with back-to-back victories for the first time since March, showed for the first time in some matches that tremendous mana and belief that exists within the side, not to mention a ruthless counterattacking ability.
With a week’s rest to come, and Aaron Cruden’s return imminent, the famous ‘three-peat’ is still achievable.
Fringe contenders about to enter their defining fortnight
The Hurricanes and Highlanders are well placed, sixth and seventh on the table respectively.
With perfect planning the two play each other in Round 14, likely propelling one firmly into the top six, and potentially scuppering the hopes of the other.
Even more dramatic is the fact that in Round 15, the Hurricanes host the Chiefs and the Highlanders welcome the Crusaders.
The champions and seven-time winners have resumes to embellish their recent form, while the men from the Deep South and capital are still to conquer Super Rugby, let alone the New Zealand Conference.
We will soon know whether that will be case in 2014.
A year of blackness?
It seems like a long time ago that many pundits were quite fairly predicting it would be game on come Bledisloe Cup time.
With eight wins in the last ten Super Rugby trans-Tasman matches to New Zealand teams, in more than one case convincingly, one man likely sleeping very well of late is Steve Hansen.
If a handful of All Blacks are still to hit their straps, plenty of new faces are putting their names forward, while there isn’t a position – even considering the need for more depth at centre and rake – that doesn’t have a world class operator available.
Led by their most experienced player, in Richie McCaw, the skipper has made over 40 tackles in his last two matches and on both occasions had more ruck arrivals than any other man on the field.
When the World Cup winning captain sets such an example, often his All Blacks follow.
http://www.sanzarrugby.com/superrugb...z-conference1/
5 things learned about the SA Conference
With four teams in the bottom seven of 2014 Super Rugby, South African teams have had what is equating to be the worst Australasian collective touring record since the tournament begun.
The Republic has only two matches left on New Zealand soil to try and avoid what would be the first time in Super Rugby history that one of their franchises hasn’t beaten a Kiwi team in their own backyard during a regular season - while the win record on Australian soil stands at 1-7.
With only four matches remaining in total overseas for South African outfits, a host of contests in front of their daunting coliseums could see the ledger become more favourable.
Stormers beginning a transition?
Two wins in their last four matches might not be enough at this point to organise street parades in Cape Town, but it is a tiny turnaround that is being backed by 11 tries in those four fixtures.
For a team that for so long has been dependent on defence, it is a tweak that gives them 21 tries so far this season – beyond what they have registered at this same point of the campaign in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
Add to this the best finish of any team, welcome after perhaps the toughest start, and four home matches in their last five could be telling for a strong conclusion to the Stormers regular season.
Sharks test has only become
A tough percentage based loss to the Brumbies was a match where neither team was willing to blink, which resulted in less enterprise which is something the Sharks cannot afford.
Two matches in New Zealand at this stage of the Super Rugby campaign gives the Durban based outfit arguably the toughest two-week stretch of their 2014 campaign.
Their pressure defence game will be tested by the free wheeling Kiwi offensive systems.
They have never beaten a Crusaders team boasting home rights, and while they might have beaten the Blues in their last visit to Auckland, that win is their only victory in New Zealand going back to 2011.
Bulls starting their run?
Two wins in a row has broken a five-match run where the Bulls hadn’t won a single match, a winless tour of Australasia is already being put behind them now they are back at their beloved Loftus.
The perfect kicking display by Handre Pollard against the Stormers echoed countless performances by the departed Morne Steyn, and while they were outscored one-try-to-two by the Stormers, it won’t have bothered the three-time champion’s one iota.
Two points outside the top six, the Bulls have precious little time to achieve what would be their goal of final's representation as they are one of just two franchises with only four matches to play.
What of the Springboks this year?
It has been well discussed how the Australian Conference is looking stronger than it has in years, perhaps resulting in a stronger Wallabies team, while the surge of form in New Zealand will likely result in an All Blacks team with the weaponry to keep their number one ranking intact.
While Heyneke Meyer ensured the Springboks finished 2013 as the second best Test nation in the world, how he assembles a team that plays a relatively similar pragmatic style to more of South Africa’s franchises than not will be of big interest.
Of the three core SANZAR nations, collectively South African Super Rugby teams are giving the Springboks selectors a less impressive base on paper that they would like when compared to their counterparts.
Likely Meyer will repeats the words often repeated by Hansen, that he will back his own environment to get the best out of the Republic’s elite players regardless of 'domestic' form.
Coming in The Rugby Championship, at the very least the coaches will want to ensure that the Springboks don’t follow the travelling form of their Super Rugby outfits.
With just 22 wins in the South Africa Conference with the most matches played (compared to 27 in AUS and 30 in NZ), statistics don't make for the best reading.
Lions and Cheetahs can start rebuilding
Some might believe there are few positives for the two lower table dwelling teams, but a tough mid patch cannot detract from that glimpse of Lions excitement, while the Cheetahs will take some solace from their status as the third equal highest score trying franchise.
Depth will likely be a priority for a Lions team with plenty of enthusiasm, while the Cheetahs will look for that double elusive goal of stability in their halves and the buttressing of their defence.
With the South African Rugby Unions announcement in February that there will be no promotion / relegation series, both can start setting some minor goals for the 2015 season.
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