THE SHAPE OF THE GAME : RWC 1995 vs RWC 2007
A little bit of death by statistics, but an interesting read for those with stamina.
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INTRODUCTION
RWC 1995 was the last World Cup played in the amateur era. Over the 12 years since then, rugby has become fully professional at Tier 1 level and almost all players at Tiers 2 and 3 are also playing professionally.
It has already been recognised that one of the results of professionalism is that the shape of rugby has changed in the intervening 12 years. The purpose of this brief narrative is to identify the areas of change – (and any areas where there has been no change) – as reflected in RWC 1995 and RWC 2007.
The report also makes reference to RWC 2003. This has been done in order to show that the major changes that have occurred with the onset of professionalism were established some time ago and that the current shape of the game is now relatively stable.
SUMMARY
The table below summarises the results of the exercise. It reflects the core elements of the game - in numerical form - as shown in RWC 1995, RWC 2007 and RWC 2003. The above summary shows how the emphasis of the game has changed over the last decade or so. There is now much more activity as reflected through a huge increase in ball in play time. This has brought with it a major increase in the number of passes per game and a monumental increase in the number of rucks and mauls. This could be because retention of possession is considered to be a major priority in the game which, in turn, could explain why kicks in play have become a lot less frequent.
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
BALL IN PLAY---------------------33%----------------44%---------------Up 33%-------------42%
PASSES--------------------------179-----------------224---------------Up 25%--------------241
RUCKS/MAULS---------------------69-----------------144---------------Up 107%-------------136
KICKS IN PLAY---------------------75-----------------56---------------Down 25%-------------52
SCRUMS---------------------------27-----------------19---------------Down 33%-------------21
LINEOUTS-------------------------37-----------------31---------------Down 16%-------------33
POINTS (pool stage average)-------56-----------------56---------------No change-------------59
PENALTIES------------------------25-----------------19---------------Down 22%-------------24
The corollary of all this has been a noticeable reduction in set pieces. Scrum and lineouts are far fewer and, together with far fewer penalties and free kicks, means the game has many less stoppages. The current shape of the game is considerably more dynamic – and it has been so for some time. RWC 2007 is little different from RWC 2003.
The following paragraphs expand on the summary given...
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
BALL IN PLAY--------------------33%----------------44%---------------Up 33%-------------42%
Highest in a game-----------------40%----------------57%
Lowest in a game------------------27%--------------- 35%
The above table shows that the highest ball in play figure seen in RWC 1995 was 40%. This figure has been exceeded in almost every game played in RWC 2007. The only matches that were below this figure were those matches where a large number of tries were scored. This is not surprising since the dead time surrounding scoring and penalty goals can take up a significant percentage of match time.
One further illustration of the change between 1995 and 2007 comes from an examination of extremes. The highest ball in play time in 2007 (45mins34secs) was twice that achieved in one of the games played in 1995 (21mins36secs)
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
PASSES--------------------------179-----------------224---------------Up 25%--------------241
Highest in a game-----------------254-----------------307
Lowest in a game------------------90-----------------143
Higher ball in play leads to higher activity – more passes, rucks and mauls. This can be illustrated by comparing Wales v Japan in 1995 with Wales v Japan in 2007 which also shows the reduction in kicks and set pieces
--------------------------WALES v JAPAN 1995------WALES v JAPAN 2007--------Difference
SCORE-----------------------Wales 57 Japan 10--------Wales 72 Japan 18
BALL IN PLAY------------------27mins35secs--------------34mins38secs-----------+7mins 03 secs
PASSES---------------------------219------------------------307--------------------+96
RUCK/MAUL------------------------89-------------------------138--------------------+49
KICKS-----------------------------70--------------------------44------------------- -26
SCRUMS---------------------------26--------------------------17-------------------- -9
LINEOUTS--------------------------42--------------------------30------------------- -12
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
RUCKS/MAULS---------------------69-----------------144---------------Up 107%-------------136
Highest in a game--------------------97-----------------205
Lowest in a game--------------------47------------------88
Rucks and mauls have shown the biggest quantum change over the last 12 years. In RWC 2007, almost every game has exceeded the maximum achieved in any game in RWC 1995.
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
KICKS IN PLAY---------------------75-----------------56---------------Down 25%-------------52
Highest in a game------------------100+----------------91
Lowest in a game-------------------60+----------------32
(Note: the 1995 figures have been obtained from an independent source and a notional adjustment has had to be made because of the protocol used in recording kicks.)
Kicks are also an area where there has been a noticeable change – in this case a reduction. A qualitative observation suggests that this could be a consequence of a greater willingness of backs to take intentional contact with the opposition in the modern game. In the past, where a tackle looked to be inevitable, the reaction was often a kick, either in field or to touch, which in turn could also explain the why there used to be a greater number of lineouts.
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
SCRUMS---------------------------27-----------------18---------------Down 33%-------------21
Highest in a game-------------------40-----------------35
Lowest in a game-------------------15-----------------12
There continues to be a gradual reduction in the number of scrums seen in the modern game. It is not infrequent, for example, to have a period of 20 minutes or so without a single scrum. In RWC 2007, most matches had fewer than 20 scrums – in RWC 1995, there were just two. Further, only 5 matches in 2007 have had more than 24. In 1995 however, as many as 23 of the 32 matches exceeded this figure.
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
LINEOUTS-------------------------37-----------------31---------------Down 16%-------------33
Highest in a game-------------------52-----------------45
Lowest in a game-------------------23-----------------21
Lineouts have also declined in number – but not as much as scrums. Extremes have also narrowed. In RWC 1995, the difference between the highest and lowest was 29 – in 2007 this difference was only 24.
------------------------------RWC 1995----------RWC 2007----------CHANGE----------RWC 2003
PENALTIES------------------------25-----------------19---------------Down 22%-------------24
Highest in a game-------------------39-----------------28
Lowest in a game-------------------13-----------------11
Penalties and free kicks have also declined noticeably since 1995. This has been a general movement over recent years but in the case of RWC there could be another contributory factor.
In 1995, the panel of referees comprised individuals from Tier 1, 2 and 3 countries. Some were inexperienced at the highest levels and research showed that, as a group, they awarded far more penalties than Tier 1 referees. The current system – being totally merit-based – appears to have reduced the number of penalties and free kicks being awarded and brought all matches much closer to the mean. The difference in 1995 between the highest and lowest penalised games was 26 – in 2007, this had been reduced to 15.
POINTS
This is the one area where there has been little change. At the pool stage in both the 1995 tournament and the 2007 tournament, the average number of points scored was 56.
At the knockout stage there was a difference however. In RWC 1995, the average was 49 points per game – in RWC 2007, it was 36.
Extract from IRB document "IRB ANALYSIS RWC 2007 REPORT", http://www.irb.com/mm/document/newsm...eport_3830.pdf
